I’ll be honest with y’all.

Non-Playoff bowl games have never been more of a crapshoot to predict. The transfer portal has been a more significant factor than opt-outs, though both obviously will play a part in these games. We also know that there are plenty of coaches with interim situations because their previous staffs are gone.

I mean, we’ve got Drew Brees coaching in a bowl game. That’s where we’re at.

Bowl season will be weird, it’ll be entertaining and we’ll all watch it. Will it be the same as it was in 2003? Nope. That’s too bad. But there’s still plenty to enjoy.

Let’s pick some football games and pretend like logic actually matters:

Las Vegas Bowl

Teams — Florida vs. No. 14 Oregon State

When — Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET (ABC)

Where — Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)

Predicted score — Oregon State 31, Florida 24

Hey, this is technically a cover for the Gators, who are 10.5-point underdogs. Keeping it close against a top-15 team without the likes of Ventrell Miller, O’Cyrus Torrence and, obviously, Anthony Richardson would be a small moral victory for Billy Napier. Both teams should be incredibly run-heavy. Oregon State rotated through quarterbacks, and Florida is starting Jack Miller III, who hasn’t played a snap all year. So what wins out? A versatile Oregon State rushing attack that should be difficult for Florida to stop without Ventrell Miller. The Gators suffer consecutive losing seasons for the 1st time since the Jimmy Carter administration.

Gasparilla Bowl

Teams — Mizzou vs. Wake Forest

When — Dec. 23, 6:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Where — Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Fla.)

Predicted score — Wake Forest 31, Mizzou 28

I don’t think Mizzou’s defense is a doormat, by any stretch. Blake Baker’s unit is one of the better groups in the country. But nobody in America has more touchdown passes against winning FBS programs than Sam Hartman (25), who will also be in sole possession of the career ACC passing touchdowns record with his 1st score through the air. We know that Hartman is going to make plays. The question is if Mizzou can force a couple of turnovers and put together its best offensive showing of the year. Without go-to receiver Dominic Lovett, who entered the transfer portal, I’m not as optimistic that Brady Cook will keep pace with Hartman, assuming he plays. Mizzou loses yet another close game in frustrating fashion.

Liberty Bowl

Teams — Arkansas vs. Kansas

When — Dec. 28, 5:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Where — Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tenn.)

Predicted score — Arkansas 42, Kansas 31

If you like dominant rushing attacks, I’ve got the game for you. The Liberty Bowl features 2 teams with prolific rushing duos who’ll face putrid run defenses. Both duos — KJ Jefferson-Rocket Sanders and Jalon Daniels-Devin Neal — should have a field day against defenses that rank outside the top 100 against the run. The Hogs will be without Drew Sanders and Bumper Pool, which means an already porous run defense will miss its top 2 tacklers. On the other side, I see no world in which Kansas slows down both Jefferson and Rocket Sanders. It wouldn’t surprise me to see both guys take advantage of some extra time off with an impressive bowl game showing. In a game of “who can actually get a stop” — the over/under is 68.5 — it’s the Hogs’ defensive front that shows a pulse and wins the track meet.

Texas Bowl

Teams — Ole Miss vs. Texas Tech

When — Dec. 28, 9 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Where — NRG Stadium (Houston)

Predicted score — Ole Miss 35, Texas Tech 24

One of the best things teams can ask for during non-Playoff bowl games is having key underclassman contributors. We know that Ole Miss has that in Quinshon Judkins. The Red Raiders rank No. 90 in FBS against the run after allowing 200-plus on the ground in 4 of the final 5 regular-season games. Of course, that didn’t necessarily prevent Texas Tech from winning its final 3 regular-season games with Tyler Shough taking over the starting QB duties. Meanwhile, Ole Miss lost 4 of its last 5 to spoil a 7-0 start. Does that actually matter? I’d say momentum is somewhat irrelevant in bowl games. With the Auburn drama in Lane Kiffin’s rearview mirror, I’d be surprised if his squad came out flat.

Gator Bowl

Teams — No. 19 South Carolina vs. No. 21 Notre Dame

When — Dec. 30, 3:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Where — TIAA Bank Stadium (Jacksonville, Fla.)

Predicted score — Notre Dame 21, South Carolina 17

Drew Pyne, Michael Mayer, MarShawn Lloyd, Jaheim Bell and Austin Stogner all hit the portal, and South Carolina offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield is off to Nebraska. As of this writing, Spencer Rattler hasn’t announced his decision yet. Either way, it’s fair to say these offenses will have some pretty significant shakeups to work through. It’s tempting to say that Shane Beamer will just figure it out by virtue of some fake field goal touchdown pass or a blocked punt score. That could absolutely happen. But the most reliable thing to trust in this game feels like it’s Marcus Freeman’s defense, which allowed 20 points per game against Power 5 competition. I’ll say South Carolina comes in a shade under that and comes up just short of ending the year with a trio of upset victories against traditional powers.

Orange Bowl (New Year’s 6)

Teams — No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 7 Clemson

When — Dec. 30, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Where — Hard Rock Stadium (Miami)

Predicted score — Clemson 42, Tennessee 21

For the sake of Tennessee fans, I hope this doesn’t turn into a 2020 Florida situation. That is, somehow squander a Playoff opportunity because of a late-season stunner, have a slew of offensive skill-player absences in the bowl game and, ultimately, suffer a lopsided loss. Without Hendon Hooker, Jalin Hyatt and Cedric Tillman, we shouldn’t use the 2022 Tennessee offense as a barometer for this game. This is all about turning the page with Joe Milton. This game feels significant for his future. It’s also a prime opportunity for Cade Klubnik to build on his dominant ACC Championship Game showing, which he should be able to do against an inconsistent Tennessee defense. Something tells me that Dabo Swinney has his team fired up to play in this game, and a depleted Tennessee squad looks like a distant memory from the nation’s No. 1 team in early November.

Music City Bowl

Teams — Kentucky vs. Iowa

When — Dec. 31, noon ET (ABC)

Where — Nissan Stadium (Nashville)

Predicted score — Kentucky 17, Iowa 10

In whatever faith you practice, please, I beg of you to pray for points. The over/under is 31.5. Why? Well, Iowa’s top 2 quarterbacks are out, as are Will Levis (opt-out) and Chris Rodriguez Jr. (opt-out). On top of that, these are 2 rock-solid defenses that should be in position to tee off. I think the only reason that over/under hasn’t creeped into the 20s is the possibility of a pick-6 or a special teams touchdown by someone like Barion Brown. Speaking of whom, I’m gonna say that he has a kick return score AND a 75-yard touchdown catch for the Cats’ lone touchdowns of the day. Mark Stoops hasn’t lost to a non-SEC team since the end of the 2017 season. As depleted as his team is, I don’t expect that streak to die against an Iowa team that set offense back 50 years.

Sugar Bowl (New Year’s 6)

Teams — No. 5 Alabama vs. No. 9 Kansas State

When — Dec. 31, noon ET (ESPN)

Where — Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)

Predicted score — Alabama 31, Kansas State 23

Ah, yes. Alabama in a non-Playoff/BCS National Championship bowl game during the Nick Saban era always forces us to use the “M” word. As in “motivation.” Will the Tide have motivation against Big 12 champ Kansas State? It better, because Deuce Vaughn isn’t a guy you can stop with anything less than max effort. I’m guessing we’ll see run-heavy approaches from both teams, regardless of whether it’s Will Howard or Adrian Martinez at quarterback for Kansas State. The beauty of some of the opt-out/transfer portal guys not playing in this bowl game is that it actually opens the door for plenty of hungry underclassmen. Alabama is still loaded with talented underclassmen who should hold their own defensively against a 1-dimensional Kansas State attack. I think this feels a bit more like 2019 Alabama in the Citrus Bowl win than 2013 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.

Peach Bowl (Playoff semifinal)

Teams — No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Ohio State

When — Dec. 31, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Where — Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)

Predicted score — Georgia 38, Ohio State 21

Do I think Ohio State can surprise people by showing up in Atlanta and looking like 2017 Alabama? Sure. That’s possible for a team that started off at No. 2 in the country. We could see the Buckeyes’ offense play looser than it did at key points this year, and perhaps Jim Knowles makes those key adjustments to prevent Ohio State from getting steamrolled like it did in the 4th quarter against Michigan. But without Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TreVeyon Henderson, I don’t expect Ohio State to have the firepower to hang with this versatile Georgia team — not with 4 weeks to prepare, especially after LSU torched the Dawgs for 500 passing yards with Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier. Stetson Bennett IV has been lights out against quality foes in 2022 (he has the best passer rating in FBS vs. teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25). I believe that continues, and the defending champs earn a chance to defend their title.

ReliaQuest Bowl

Teams — No. 22 MSU vs. Illinois

When — Jan. 2, noon ET (ESPN2)

Where — Raymond James Stadium

Predicted score — MSU 24, Illinois 20

MSU is going to be playing for Mike Leach. That much I know. How will the offense look without Leach? And will Zach Arnett’s defense have to stop Chase Brown? Those things, I don’t know. That’s why that score suggests this can go either way, despite the fact that I thought the MSU defense fought its tail off against Judkins and Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl. The circumstances have changed. Drastically. This could feel like a bit of a rock fight. Illinois lost 3 games in which it held the opposition to fewer than 24 points, and it scored 28 points against Power 5 competition just twice. But I picture Will Rogers leading MSU on some 85-yard drive with a touchdown pass to win it in the closing minutes. Long live The Pirate.

Citrus Bowl

Teams — No. 17 LSU vs. Purdue

When — Jan. 2, 1 p.m. ET (ABC)

Where — Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Fla.)

Predicted score — LSU 35, Purdue 17

So to recap, Purdue will be playing without its head coach, its starting quarterback and its top receiver. Call me crazy, but these things feel … important? Meanwhile, LSU got positive news that top receiver Kayshon Boutte is running it back for Year 4, and he’ll play in the Citrus Bowl. On the bright side for Purdue, the vibes will be positive going into this one with Drew Brees as an interim analyst. LSU fans couldn’t be more conflicted at the sound of that. I think there’s plenty of motivation for LSU to avoid ending what was a promising Year 1 by losing 3 consecutive games. It’s strange to think the Tigers, winners of what’s typically been the toughest division in America, are trying to avoid a 5-loss season. We should see Harold Perkins and Co. steamroll the new-look Purdue offense en route to win No. 10. Brian Kelly’s Year 1 ends on a high note.