Predicting the final record of the top 10 teams in Playoff rankings
It’s not how you start. It’s how and where you finish.
Week 11 saw 2 more teams fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. (We predicted the Alabama loss in this space last week but figured Penn State would lose later, not at Minnesota.)
Round 2 of the Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night. I crushed the Playoff committee for their initial rankings. I’ll praise them for the redo. We largely agreed.
At any rate, that’s where the teams are entering Week 12. This is a prediction of where the top 10 teams will finish the regular season (including conference championship game where applicable).
1. LSU (13-0)
I’m not sure it was possible to have any more confidence in Joe Burrow than I already did before he lit up Alabama. I mean, I started lobbying for him to be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft in September. Special year, special quarterback.
2. Ohio State (13-0)
Nobody in the Big Ten is stopping this runaway train. Minnesota better bring some life jackets to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship Game. That boat is about to take on some water.
3. Clemson (13-0)
Nobody in the ACC is stopping this runaway train.
4. Georgia (10-3)
I’m extremely confident that Auburn’s defense can slow down a less-than-impressive Georgia offense on Saturday, especially if Lawrence Cager is dinged up. Can the Tigers’ offense score enough against the Dawgs’ impressive D? I’ll give Auburn a very slight edge, only because the Tigers are at home, but I’m not overly confident. I’m quite confident that once Georgia wraps up the East, it’ll fall by double digits against LSU in the SEC title game.
5. Alabama (11-1)
Last week’s 11-1 prediction is this week’s 11-1 prediction. The Tide will rebound against Mississippi State. Nick Saban hasn’t lost consecutive games in back-to-back weeks since 2007. He hasn’t lost to an unranked team since 2007. Neither streak ends this Saturday. Assuming Tua Tagovailoa is healthy (and I’d sit him against Mississippi State and Western Carolina to ensure he is), the Tide will finish the season knowing it has to dominate Auburn to make its Playoff case. They will.
6. Oregon (12-1)
It’s not so much about the 12 wins and predicted Pac-12 title. It’s about the loss — to the SEC’s 4th-best team that will continue to give the committee pause. It’s hard to jump 2 (or 3) SEC teams that beat the team you lost to. But the Ducks are the best out West.
7. Utah (11-2)
The Utes have a better shot at the Playoff because they don’t have to explain away a loss to the 4th-best SEC team. But can they beat Oregon for the Pac-12 title? I don’t think so.
8. Minnesots (11-2)
I didn’t think Minnesota would beat Penn State. The Gophers won by 5. Can they finish the regular season 12-0? I don’t think so. It won’t matter. The Big Ten East is the dominant division, and Ohio State is the dominant team. The boat ride will end. It’s merely a matter of when.
9. Penn State (10-2)
The Nittany Lions travel to Ohio State on Nov. 23. Given the way Minnesota threw the ball on that secondary, Justin Fields will enjoy his first 300-yard day. That’ll be the last we hear of the Nittany Lions in these rankings.
10. Oklahoma (12-1)
The Sooners are still the class of the Big 12. The committee obviously wasn’t overly impressed with the Sooners, but I had them at No. 10, too, and chastised them for a wasted opportunity to impress against Iowa State. The Sooners will move up with a victory this week against Baylor. They’ll need a lot of help — and a lot of points — to overcome the fall.
How is Auburn the secs 4th best team again? Loss to Florida and LSU so are you saying they’re better than Bama or UGA?
No, buddy he’s saying they are better than Florida. He’s wrong, but that’s what he’s saying.
He is predicting Auburn to beat UGA.
But would Auburn with three losses still be considered better than UGA who would only have two? I don’t think USCjr is better than UGA
If they beat UGA it’s debatable. They lost to Florida on the road, but they will also have two top 10 wins.
Would UGA be a top ten team if they lost to Auburn though?
It’s not debatable, you lost by 11 were completely dominated idc who you beat here on your not better than that team. UGA and SC are different. Statistically UGA dominated that game they had some receivers doing the pop up drill and one of the best kickers in the country uncharacteristically miss a fg. If UGA and SC play 10 times they win 9 every single time. Same goes for Auburn and UF.
You are stupid, have you ever looked at the stats UF would not be auburn 9 out of 10 times that’s the stupidest comment I have ever seen play us at Jordan hare and you would see
Hahahahahaha
Minnesots
Lol what a great typo, maybe I got up too early or too much coffee this AM but I’m literally in my office saying Minnesots out loud and laughing way to hard at it.
I disagree with the Oregon argument saying they can’t jump Alabama (or Georgia) if those teams were to beat Auburn. You’re putting too much weight in the transitive property thing.
If the committee looked at it that way, wouldn’t they have Alabama over Georgia since Alabama beat the team (On the road) that Georgia lost to (at home)?
Here’s a crazy idea. The whole Conference Championship game is BS. It has nothing to do with crowning a conference champion and everything to do with making more money for the conference. I’d like to see it abolished for every conference and just replaced with an extra round of playoff games (8 team playoff). But if we must have it, let’s make it meaningful. Assume LSU finishes 8-0, Georgia and Alabama both finish 7-1 (and these are definitely big assumptions). But with that assumption, let LSU opt out of playing the game and then Alabama and Georgia could battle it out in a more meaningful game for a chance to earn the coveted #4 playoff seed. This is one way to settle it on the field instead of the back room CFP committee opinion.
Not that that has much to do with my comment, but that’s an interesting idea you have since a lot of people think you need to win your conference to make the playoffs to begin with.
Imagine that… Georgia and Alabama would have both been sitting at home while Auburn won the natty in 2017/18
How’s that work? Auburn lost to UGA in the SECCG.
the point was if there wasn’t an SEC championship game…
Right, but you’re assuming Auburn beats UGA a second time (they didn’t) or Bama a second time (they wouldn’t).
Where does he get 10-3 for UGA? I guess he is predicting Ga losing to Auburn , beating tamu, then losing Sec CG. But this is FINAL record. How about bowl game?
I think it’s clear he means prior to bowl games
He should have said regular season records.
Technically CCGs aren’t “regular season”
It wouldn’t be a Chris Wright column without a dose of heavily-biased Georgia hate. Much like Matty Hayes, Wright over here can’t stand that Kirby OWNS Sideshow Dan the lown and that he’s continued to back the wrong horse in the SEC East.
Give it up, Wright. Whatever you think about the Georgia Offense Auburn Offense is even more of a mismatch, but you don’t talk about that, do you? Of course not. It’d ruin your narrative.
Maybe cause I am a Bama guy and juries have literally been the kryptonite. But injuries could change everything..every guy is one play away from season ending injury..Burrow, Fields, Fromm, Hurts, Herbert, etc. Is LSU still unanimous #1 without Burrow? What if Trevor Lawrence gets hurt against SCAR and is out with an ACL and they still go 13-0 who is going to want to see #2 Ohio State vs #3 Clemson without their QB? Chances are these thongs won’t happen but chaos tends to happen this time of the year and things don’t go to plan.
Thongs lol
You have to assume everyone is healthy. You can’t predict injuries.
Georgia is the better team, but this is an Auburn home game and the underdog has a long history of ruining the favorite’s season in this game.
Auburn’s defensive line will shut down the run and also pressure Fromm up the middle on passing downs. Florida is better than Auburn, but Auburn matches up to Georgia this year better than Florida does.
Not if Todd Grantham was coaching their defense on 3rd and long.
Garbage article….