Predicting the top 10 for the Playoff poll entering Championship Week

It should be telling.

Say what you want about the Playoff rankings shows. They’re over the top. They don’t need to spend 19 minutes breaking down hypotheticals before releasing the full top 25. It’s often somewhat meaningless.

Tuesday night’s rankings, however, will have plenty of meaning.

Where will Ohio State be after getting trucked by Michigan? Is Georgia going to get leapfrogged by Michigan after one of the most impressive performances of the year? And is USC going to vault into the top 4 ahead of conference championship weekend?

Oh, and one other thing. There’s no way that Alabama is in the top 5 … right?

Let’s break down all of that with what I think the rankings will look like (note once again that there’s a big difference in how I’d rank these teams):

10. Washington

Quietly, this has been one of the most drastic year-to-year turnarounds in the sport. A 4-win team in 2021 capped a 10-2 regular season in Year 1 of the Kalen DeBoer era in 2022. The Huskies have a legitimate shot to play in a Rose Bowl for the second time in the last 15 years. But as it stands, you could argue that Washington’s only true Playoff relevance without a USC matchup is potentially blocking a team like LSU or Oregon from the top 10.

9. LSU

Devastating, that loss was. You could see the path to a Playoff berth with a Georgia win in the SEC Championship, as long as it was for a 2-loss LSU team. Now, that’s gone. The only significance of this ranking is that it would help Georgia’s case for a No. 1 seed to beat a potential top-10 LSU team compared to Michigan beating a potentially unranked Purdue.

8. Penn State

Penn State continuing to win games quietly morphed into a pivotal development for the Big Ten’s 2-team Playoff bid because both Michigan and Ohio State had double-digit wins against the Lions. It’s more important now for Ohio State because obviously that’s the Buckeyes’ best win. Of course, Penn State doesn’t have a win against the current AP Top 25, but there are only 10 Power 5 teams with 2 or fewer losses. Hence, the top-10 ranking.

7. Tennessee

Would I have Tennessee ahead of Alabama? Absolutely. But this is a prediction of what I think the selection committee will do. We just saw the Vols come in 3 spots behind Alabama, despite the fact that they were both 2-loss teams and obviously, Tennessee has the head-to-head. Here’s the breakdown of their respective résumés:

That’s why in my opinion, Tennessee should be ranked ahead of Alabama — even without Hendon Hooker. Even that South Carolina loss aged better a week later. But do I think the selection committee will favor logic? Sadly, no.

6. Alabama

I’ll keep this brief because I outlined my frustration with Alabama’s high ranking in the Tennessee spot. If the Tide come in behind Ohio State on Tuesday night, we can put this bizarre discussion to rest. A 2-loss, non-division champ that doesn’t have a win against the current top-15 isn’t Playoff-worthy, especially with an average scoring margin vs. Power 5 teams of +14.2 (TCU’s is +15.2 with 3 more wins vs. Power 5 bowl teams). There’s nothing about Alabama’s résumé, which has 5 games decided in the final minute, that screams “breakthrough 2-loss Playoff team.” I have to think the selection committee will make this about 1-loss Ohio State vs. USC and not USC vs. 2-loss Alabama.

But I digress.

5. Ohio State

Yes, it was a bad loss. Losing like that at home is never a positive in the Playoff résumé discussion. The manner in which it played out could absolutely prevent Ohio State from making the Playoff as a 1-loss, non-division champ. But it’s worth remembering that we’ve seen the following Playoff teams make the field after losing by at least 3 scores:

• 2017 Georgia (L, 40-17 at Auburn)
• 2020 Notre Dame (L, 34-10 to Clemson in ACC Championship)
• 2021 Georgia (L, 41-24 to Alabama in SEC Championship)

Mind you, all 3 of those losses happened in November or December. Like Ohio State, all of those teams were in the top 2 of the Playoff poll at the time of the loss. So to say that this is a deal-breaker would be premature, but it does appear that the Buckeyes could be in need of some help.

4. USC

I’ve been hard on the Trojans. In my defense, I thought the selection committee was giving them the benefit of the doubt before facing that back-loaded schedule. But USC answered the bell by beating consecutive ranked foes, and should now be in position to earn a Playoff spot with a redemption win against Utah, which struggled with any decent opponent away from home.

Also of note? Georgia (4) is now the only contender with more wins vs. current AP Top 25 teams than USC (3). Also, also of note? USC and Ohio State both beat Notre Dame by exactly 11 points, but I’d argue the late-November version of the Irish was much more proven than what we saw in Columbus back in early September. (And Notre Dame added a garbage-time TD in the final minute vs. USC to make the score appear closer.) That’s what should give USC the edge for a top-4 spot heading into conference championship weekend.

3. TCU

Here’s something to chew on. In the Playoff era, 2019 Ohio State is the only Power 5 team with a 9-game conference schedule that went 13-0 en route to the Playoff. TCU is a Kansas State win from joining that exclusive club coming off a beatdown of Iowa State. Yes, the Big 12 lacks elite teams beyond TCU, but the Horned Frogs have 7 wins against bowl-eligible Power 5 teams, which is tied with Georgia for the most in FBS. That makes TCU’s Playoff berth all but locked in, barring a total blowout at the hands of Kansas State. Even that, I could make a case the Horned Frogs could still have a better résumé than Ohio State.

But we’ll save that potential discussion for a later date.

2. Michigan

It’s possible that Michigan leapfrogs Georgia for the No. 1 spot, especially with now 2 wins against current AP top 10 teams. And if that’s the case, the Wolverines would probably have to struggle against Purdue in the Big Ten Championship to not earn the No. 1 seed. But I think we see the selection committee give Georgia the slight nod just because Georgia does have 4 wins against current AP Top 25 teams compared to just 2 for Michigan.

I also think the selection committee would prefer not to set the precedent of allowing a nonconference schedule like Michigan’s to be rewarded with the potential No. 1 seed. Georgia has an 8-game conference schedule, yet it still faced 10 Power 5 opponents compared to 9 for Michigan. But make no mistake. The Wolverines are in, regardless of what happens on Saturday night.

1. Georgia

It’s fair to say that Georgia Tech was a bit underwhelming. It’s also fair to say that 12-0 with 4 wins against the current AP Top 25 and an average Power 5 scoring margin of +27.3 is anything but underwhelming. That’s why I believe the Dawgs will fend Michigan off for the No. 1 overall spot. Only 1 game was decided by single digits all year, which is pretty impressive for a full SEC slate with 2 Power 5 foes in nonconference play (Michigan had 0). That’s ultimately going to matter for seeding, despite the fact that dominating Ohio State in Columbus was arguably the most impressive win of the year.

Just like last year, a 12-0 Georgia squad should already have a Playoff spot locked up heading into conference championship weekend.