Predicting when every SEC team will suffer its next losing season

Earlier in the week, we predicted the next time every SEC team would win 10 games.

Today, we flip the script and rain a bit on all of that preseason optimism.

Every year, multiple SEC teams endure a losing season. At least four have done so each of the past three seasons. We can expect more of the same in 2018, but the question we’re asking is: Which teams?

Alabama

Losing seasons 2008-17: 0

Predicting next losing season: Three years after Nick Saban retires.

Skinny: Here’s a fun fact: Every other SEC program except LSU has had at least one losing season since Nick Saban arrived.

Alabama’s projected starting lineup could transfer and the Tide still wouldn’t lose 7 games in 2018. Alabama hasn’t had a losing season since finishing 6-7 in 2006. They’ve had just five since Bear Bryant took over in the fall of 1958. That’s not changing any time soon.

Arkansas

Losing seasons 2008-17: 4

Predicting next losing season: 2018

Skinny: Given the program’s current status, resources and division alignment, Chad Morris walked into the toughest situation in the SEC. Florida is close. Tennessee will rebound (just not this year). Texas A&M and Mississippi State weren’t far away to begin with. Arkansas is at least two years from posting a winning record.

Auburn

Losing seasons 2008-17: 2

Predicting next losing season: 2019

Skinny: Gus Malzahn needed a victory over Memphis in the Birmingham Bowl to avoid a losing season in 2015. While it seems like the train is finally running, we’ve seen this program twice derail without much warning in the past decade. Remember, the 2008 squad that finished 5-7 opened the season ranked No. 10. So, unlike Alabama, it’s not unrealistic to think it could happen again to the Tigers, and relatively soon.

If I had to bet, I’d say that the Tigers are above .500 next season, but keep in mind they’ll be starting over at quarterback, might or might not have a proven running back returning and will face Oregon, Georgia, (at) Florida in addition to the West gauntlet that will feature not only Alabama but also an improved Texas A&M, LSU and Arkansas squads.

Florida

Losing seasons 2008-17: 2

Predicting next losing season: Two years after Dan Mullen leaves.

Skinny: The Gators reeled off 23 consecutive winning seasons (Steve Spurrier and Urban Meyer combined for 21 of them) and went 33 years without suffering a losing season from 1980-2012.

Combine that history with Dan Mullen’s resume — seven winning seasons in nine years in the SEC West — and it’s difficult to envision the Gators suffering through a repeat of 2017 or 2013 any time soon.

If you’re going to get them, 2018 is the most logical year. There’s not a huge gap between 6-6 and a subsequent bowl loss to most projections of the Gators enjoying a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season. So it’s possible, just not likely.

Georgia

Losing seasons 2008-17: 1

Predicting next losing season: Three years after Kirby Smart retires.

Skinny: Mark Richt had one losing season in 15 years — falling to UCF (those pesky Knights) 10-6 in a 2010 Liberty Bowl for the ages to finish 6-7. Georgia is primed to own the East much like the Gators did for two decades under Spurrier and Meyer.

Kentucky

Losing seasons 2008-17: 6

Predicting next losing season: 2018

Skinny: It certainly could happen this year if the Cats lose Benny Snell early in the season, forcing them to lean heavier than they’d prefer on a first-time starting quarterback. ESPN’s FPI already is projecting 5-7. Kentucky has strangely owned South Carolina, a key reason it finished 7-6 each of the past two seasons, but if that doesn’t continue, a 7-loss season seems realistic.

LSU

Losing seasons 2008-17: 0

Predicting next losing season: 2018

Skinny: Expectations cloud everything. LSU hasn’t had a losing season since 1999. Alabama has had three losing seasons since then. Every other SEC team has had at least one. But the bar in Baton Rouge is set at 10 wins, not 7, so when the Tigers struggle to reach it, doomsday narratives ensue. This season could seriously test that theory — and the administration’s patience. ESPN’s FPI has the Tigers at 6-6. With a new starting quarterback, an unproven backfield and a difficult schedule that starts with Miami and includes Georgia, it’s easy to understand why. Normally, the Tigers can count on a huge homefield advantage, but even that’s at risk in 2018. The home slate includes dates with Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama — in consecutive games.

Mississippi State

Losing seasons 2008-17: 3

Predicting next losing season: 2019

Skinny: All of the pieces are in place for a magical debut season for Joe Moorhead, but most of those said pieces will be in the NFL in 2019. That’s really when we’ll begin to learn about Moorhead’s staying power. Recruiting is off to a better than expected start, but even Dan Mullen had somewhat regular battles with reaching .500. Twice his teams went 7-6, and the 2016 team finished 6-7. By 2020, Moorhead will have everything he wants the way he wants it, but navigating 2019 will be tricky.

Missouri

Losing seasons 2008-17: 3

Predicting next losing season: 2019

Skinny: Mizzou is another program that has battled the cycle, its recent success generally tied to outstanding quarterback play, followed by a dip in production (and victories) while breaking in a younger QB. This season, Drew Lock’s final one, promises to be as entertaining as 2019 appears worrisome. Fortunately for Barry Odom, Lock’s somewhat surprising return gave him another year to find and groom his successor.

Ole Miss

Losing seasons 2008-17: 4

Predicting next losing season: 2020

Skinny: With all of the departures and NCAA hangover, there’s a chance they finish 5-7 this year. FPI projects a 6-6 finish, but that includes a victory over South Carolina, so odds are favorable that they’ll teeter on the edge of .500. I think 2020 is more realistic because the Rebels get a rotating crossover game against a Florida team that should be contending for a Playoff spot by then. And with one nonconference spot still available, I’d expect the Rebels to add a game against a Power 5 opponent.

South Carolina

Losing seasons 2008-17: 2

Predicting next losing season: 2020

Skinny: Even Steve Spurrier flirted with losing seasons in three consecutive years and finally had one on his way out the door. But why 2020? The Gamecocks are loaded for the next two seasons, assuming Jake Bentley returns for his senior season. That takes us to 2020, which will include a rotating game at LSU in addition to the finale at Clemson. Texas A&M and Florida also should be making their move toward Playoff contention by then.

Tennessee

Losing seasons 2008-17: 6

Predicting next losing season: 2018

Skinny: It’s unbelievable to think that Tennessee has had more losing seasons in the past 10 years than every other SEC school except Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Last year was rock bottom, the first time the program lost 8 games in a season.

This year will be better, but how much? There’s a new coach, a first-timer at that, an unsettled quarterback situation without a proven running back to lean on and a schedule that features five teams with conference title hopes. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a chance to go 6-6. That might be one win too optimistic.

Texas A&M

Losing seasons 2008-17: 2

Predicting next losing season: Two years after Jimbo Fisher leaves.

Skinny: Kevin Sumlin seemingly hit a wall after going 11-2 in a smashing debut season in 2012. But even after the program appeared to plateau, it never was in real danger of finishing below .500. I don’t think it will slump further under Fisher, despite a very weird final season at FSU last year. However, if it’s going to happen, this is the year. There certainly are 5 losable games on the schedule, beginning with a Week 2 tilt against Clemson. Finish 6-6 and drop a bowl game? It’s possible.

Vanderbilt

Losing seasons 2008-17: 7

Predicting next losing season: 2018

Skinny: The Dores essentially swapped a home game against Alabama in 2017 with a trip to Notre Dame in 2018. Their lone SEC win last season was against Tennessee, their second consecutive over the Vols. The last time Vandy won three consecutive against the Vols? The roaring 20s … 1920s.