Predicting the next time every SEC team will win 10 games

Three SEC teams won 10 or more games in 2017.

That was two more than 2016, when Alabama was the league’s lone double-digit victor.

Even with more games, 10 wins is a bar too high for most to reach.

The question is, how soon will your favorite team reach it again?

Alabama

10-win seasons 2008-17: 10

Next 10-win season: 2018

Skinny: Alabama’s off years include 10 wins. Nick Saban has won 11 or more seven consecutive seasons and nine of the past 10. The streak rolls on.

Arkansas

10-win seasons 2008-17: 2

Next 10-win season: 2020

Skinny: Chad Morris has won everywhere he’s been and won big occasionally (most notably as Clemson’s OC), but he’ll need at least three seasons to chase 10 wins in Fayetteville. As many positives that can be heaped on Bret Bielema, he never even won 9 games in his 5-year stint. Arkansas’ most recent 10-win season came in 2011, under Bobby Petrino. The program has only reached 10 wins 12 times.

Auburn

10-win seasons 2008-17: 3

Next 10-win season: 2018

Skinny: Auburn went 10-4 last year, and while it lost some offensive skill, it returns a Heisman candidate in quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Repeating will be noteworthy, however. The last time the Tigers won 10 games in back-to-back seasons? You have to go all the way back to 1988 and 1989.

Florida

10-win seasons 2008-17: 4

Next 10-win season: 2019

Skinny: 2008 and 2009 seem like a lifetime ago. Tim Tebow’s Gators won 13 games in consecutive seasons, each time matching the Gators’ combined win total from the past two seasons. So, yes, Dan Mullen’s rebuilding job is real. But last year’s 4-7 mark was the most deceptive in the country. The schedule doesn’t allow for 10 wins in 2018, but it’s only a matter of time … and not a lot of it.

Georgia

10-win seasons 2008-17: 6

Next 10-win season: 2018

Skinny: The Dawgs matched a program-record by winning 13 games last season. Much has been made about the soft nonconference schedule in 2018. The talk of going undefeated is a tad premature — there’s always the annual date with Auburn and this year the Dawgs also travel to Baton Rouge — but there’s more reasons to think they’ll reach double digits again than not.

Kentucky

10-win seasons 2008-17: 0

Next 10-win season: 2020

Skinny: Mark Stoops is slowly upgrading both lines, giving the Wildcats a chance to stand toe-to-toe with the SEC’s more physical teams. Will he be around when the Cats finally win 10 games for the first time since 1977? That’s a fair question. Going 7-6 in consecutive seasons and playing in a bowl certainly is better than most falls in Lexington, but if Louisville can do it … the pressure will be on Stoops to break through soon.

LSU

10-win seasons 2008-17: 4

Next 10-win season: 2019

Skinny: LSU, which won two national championships in a 5-year span ending in 2007, has won 10 games just four times since — and not since 2013. Ed Orgeron will win SEC Coach of the Year if the Tigers win 10 games in 2018. They are talented but also starting over against a slate that includes Miami, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn and Mississippi State. Assuming Orgeron survives the year, the pieces will be in place to make a run at 10 wins in 2019.

Mississippi State

10-win seasons 2008-17: 1

Next 10-win season: 2018

Skinny: Fun fact: The Bulldogs have won 34 games in the past four seasons. Alabama is the only SEC West team with more Ws in that span. Yet 10 wins have been elusive. For all of his success, Dan Mullen accomplished it just once, in 2014. The program has reached that bar just three times. Why will they make it four in 2018? Several reasons, starting with senior quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who could vault into the Heisman discussion with a hot start. The schedule doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room, but crossing over against Florida and Kentucky certainly is manageable. And that defense could be the second-best in the league. First-year head coach Joe Moorhead walked into an ideal Year 1 situation.

Missouri

10-win seasons 2008-17: 4

Next 10-win season: 2020

Skinny: If Mizzou can’t win 10 games with a record-setting quarterback, it’s hard to imagine the Tigers breaking through in the first year after Drew Lock is gone. Barry Odom’s team turned a corner last season, salvaging a disastrous 1-5 start, and there is reason to believe if Lock stays upright, the Tigers should win 8 games this season. Stun somebody and win a bowl game, and it’s possible. Not likely, but possible.

Ole Miss

10-win seasons 2008-17: 1

Next 10-win season: 2021

Skinny: Ole Miss might be the most difficult to project. Many viewed Matt Luke’s promotion as a short-term, logical answer to dealing with the NCAA scandal. Once the penalties are over, this obviously becomes a much better job (though Mississippi’s state rule about contract lengths remains an obvious competitive disadvantage). So Luke likely will see the end of his contract, even if he falls well short of 10 wins. The Rebels are sneaky talented, however, even though they aren’t recruiting at the level that got them in trouble.

South Carolina

10-win seasons 2008-17: 3

Next 10-win season: 2018

Skinny: As if we needed another excuse to point out how otherworldy Steve Spurrier was, consider this: Until he arrived, South Carolina had enjoyed exactly one 10-win season in its history. Spurrier ripped off three in a row. So it is possible.

Can Will Muschamp get to 10 in 2018? The schedule is favorable, and the Gamecocks won 9 games last year despite missing their best offensive player for most of the season. They did so by sweeping Florida and Tennessee for the first time since 2011. Florida will be in bounce-back mode in 2018, and the game is at The Swamp. Because of its late date (Week 11), it could be a must-win if the Gamecocks want to get to 10 wins.

Tennessee

10-win seasons 2008-17: 0

Next 10-win season: 2020

Skinny: Butch Jones twice won 9 games, but the Vols haven’t won 10 since 2007, Phil Fulmer’s next-to-last as head coach. There’s no quick fix from last season’s 0-8 SEC, 4-8 debacle. Fortunately, Fulmer hired Jeremy Pruitt, so the leash will be long. Year 3 is the first year the Vols can reasonably expect to win 10 games again.

Texas A&M

10-win seasons 2008-17: 1

Next 10-win season: 2019

Skinny: Jimbo Fisher won 10 or more games six times in eight seasons at FSU. Once he starts winning 10 in College Station, it will be an annual occurrence. There’s too much talent, too much money, too much everything for a coach who has won big elsewhere not to win big there. With a few breaks, the Aggies might get there in 2018.

Vanderbilt

10-win seasons 2008-17: 0

Next 10-win season: Never.

Skinny: Yes, I know Northwestern has won 10 games three times in the past six seasons. And not so long ago, Wake Forest won 11 games and the ACC title. And Stanford is Stanford, a near-annual 10-game winner.

But none of those academic powers recruit and play in the SEC.

Vanderbilt has never won 10 games, though James Franklin came awfully close twice. Alas, as the spending gap grows, that’s as close as the Dores will get.