SEC Week 10 predictions (and bets)
It’s Wednesday night which means it’s time to get your weekly (terrible) gambling advice!
If you missed this column the first few weeks of the season, SDS news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS Podcast co-host Chris Marler (@VerneFUNquist) make their weekly predictions for every game involving SEC teams.
Despite some disastrous picks last week, Michael is still ahead in the season standings with a 31-33-1 against the spread record while Chris is catching up with a 28-35-2 overall record.
Here is how the guys predict the Week 10 action to play out:
UTSA at Texas A&M (-38)
Michael: UTSA will likely prove to be the worst FBS team on Texas A&M’s schedule by the end of the season but 38 points is a ton to give up, especially this late in the season. The Aggies are coming off their most impressive performance of the season, which likely pushed this line a notch higher than it would have been before the Mississippi State game. The emergence of Isaiah Spiller has been big for Jimbo Fisher’s offense and I expect him to have his best game of the season in this one. This could be a game where Zach Calzada gets a quarter of action to show what he can do, which could also help UTSA cover.
Texas A&M 45 UTSA 10
Chris: Marler refuses to pick sides in this matchup.
UAB at Tennessee (-11.5)
Michael: Statistically, UAB has one of the better defenses in the nation. That should be reason enough for Tennessee to not look beyond the Blazers but when you combine that with the fact the Vols already got caught looking ahead against Georgia State, Jeremy Pruitt will have the full attention of his team heading into Saturday’s matchup. Over the last month, Tennessee has arguably been the SEC’s most improved team and I like that trend to continue as both lines of scrimmage have become strengths for the Vols while Jim Chaney appears to have a complete grasp on what buttons to push with his offense. If Tennessee continues to progress as they have in recent weeks, this one won’t be close.
Tennessee 30 UAB 13
Chris: Ever since the refs stole that 22-point loss/win away from Tennessee down in Tuscaloosa the Vols have seemingly been a different team. Statistically, this line seems too high, as the Vols are still one of the only teams in the SEC to average less points and total yards per game than their opponents. However, I love how this defense is playing, and I think the offense will be fine just heaving Hail Mary’s to Jennings and Callaway if they have to.
Tennessee 31 UAB 17
Vanderbilt at South Carolina (-15)
Michael: Which Vanderbilt team will show up on Saturday, the one that got spanked by UNLV or the one that upset Missouri? And what’s the deal with South Carolina, which beat Georgia on the road but turns around two weeks later and looks uncompetitive against Tennessee? Regardless of what Will Muschamp is selling, Ryan Hilinski has to be banged up, he doesn’t look like the same player he was early in the season. Vanderbilt also had two weeks to prepare for this matchup, which could prove to be invaluable considering quarterback Mo Hasan had to leave the Missouri win after taking a shot to the head. I’m feeling good about South Carolina winning this game but I’ll take the Commodores to cover.
South Carolina 28 Vanderbilt 17
Chris: This feels a lot less like a football game and a lot more like a Celebrity Coaching Death Match. And honestly, having two claymation figurine versions of Muschamp and Mason would be far more entertaining than this actual game. I don’t know who wins, but I can’t wait to find out who disgruntledly yells into a microphone louder during the postgame interview. I’m going to put my faith in South Carolina, and then watch with one eye open.
South Carolina 31 Vanderbilt 17
Mississippi State (-7.5) at Arkansas
Michael: The “loser leave town bowl” is set to take place in Fayetteville this weekend as this may be the last opportunity each of these teams have to earn an SEC win this season. Despite both of these coaches being on the job for less than two years, the confidence level from each fan base are at an all-time low entering Saturday’s game. Each offensive system appears to be as clueless as the day they arrived and their special team units continue to make terrible mistakes week in and week out. Meanwhile, both defensive units are playing their worst football of the season. The main difference between the two? Moorhead has confidence in Garrett Shrader to perform on the field while the quarterback Chad Morris selects to start is consistently the worse than the backup that eventually comes in to replace him. If I wasn’t getting paid to watch to do so, I definitely would not subject myself to watching this game.
Mississippi State 33 Arkansas 20
Chris: I wouldn’t touch this game with a ten-foot cowbell if I had the option. Both of these teams have been absolutely dreadful over the past month. Arkansas hasn’t won a conference game in what feels like a decade, and the Bulldogs have been worse on the road than a ‘79 Sheep Van without an oil change. It’s a Dumb & Dumber reference. Which seems fair considering the ineptitude of these teams as of late. Regardless, I’m taking the Hogs because…I don’t know why. But I’m saying there’s a chance.
Arkansas 28 Mississippi State 27
Ole Miss at Auburn (-19)
Michael: Away Auburn lost another game last week as Bo Nix and company didn’t have much success against LSU. Thankfully for Tiger fans, home Auburn is back this week and facing a one-dimensional Ole Miss attack that may be without its breakout start, John Rhys Plumlee. Even if he does play, it’s hard to imagine the Ole Miss coaching staff being comfortable subjecting the freshman to this Auburn defense for many snaps just a week after having surgery. If the Rebels can’t run on Auburn, this one could get ugly in a hurry.
Auburn 34 Ole Miss 13
Chris: Auburn is down to one QB, and he can’t throw a ball over 5 yards accurately. Yikes. Ole Miss has 2 QBs that Matt Luke is using for some unknown reason. Hopefully, they roll with Plumlee after the bye week. Whoever they put back there is going to have a long day dealing with that Auburn D-Line. Regardless, I think the Rebs cover after a roller coaster week from the Tigers.
Auburn 31 Ole Miss 21
Georgia (-6.5) vs. Florida
Michael: Much like the LSU-Florida matchup from a few weeks ago, Vegas is begging bettors to take Florida and the points in this matchup. The Gators appear to have all the momentum while all the pressure to win this game rests with Kirby Smart and Georgia. That all may be true but this matchup annually comes down to the team that can run the ball most effectively and that heavily favors the Bulldogs on Saturday. If Florida stacks the box to stop the run, Jake Fromm has proven time and time again he has the ability to beat tight man-to-man coverage. This game may go back and forth for four quarters but I’ll take the Dawgs to win it by a touchdown in the end.
Georgia 27 Florida 20
Chris: This offseason I was on record SEVERAL TIMES saying that the best bet of the entire year was UGA to cover the 3.5 spread that this line opened at. Now we’re knocking on November’s door and I believe in UGA less than I believe in actual ghosts come Halloween night. All of the most negative comments that are made in the thread below this weekly article are from UGA comments. And, ALL of my instincts tell me to pick UGA still. However, my instincts also told me to switch majors to Liberal Studies my junior year and get a bicep tat that says “Prodigal Son.” My instincts are terrible. Almost as terrible as James Coley’s playcalling. Go Gata.
Florida 21 Georgia 20