Handicapping the SEC East: Predicting first to last
Over the past few days, we’ve broken down the SEC East into four compartmental rankings in an effort to predict the teams’ order of finish in 2016.
Here are the results of those rankings:
- Handicapping the SEC East — defenses
- Handicapping the SEC East — offenses
- Handicapping the SEC East — coaches
- Handicapping the SEC East — X factors
Here are the results of the rankings in each category, tabulated to make an overall SEC East prediction for order of finish:
| Team | Off. | Def. | Coaches | X Factors | Total |
| 1. Tennessee | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 2. Georgia | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 3. Florida | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| T4. Kentucky | 3 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 19 |
| T4. South Carolina | 5 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 6. Vanderbilt | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 23 |
| 7. Missouri | 7 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 25 |
Tennessee is the favorite in the SEC East on paper, and these rankings support that. The Volunteers are tied for the most returning starters (17) in the SEC — including the leaders in passing, rushing, tackles and sacks.
In addition, the schedule is manageable, and with the coaching turnover in the East, Butch Jones is suddenly tied with Kentucky’s Mark Stoops as the head man with the longest tenure in the division.
It’s only May, but the hype surrounding the Volunteers is already on full blast. How Tennessee handles being the hunted will determine whether it lives up to expectations.
Georgia and Florida occupy the next two spots, and both harbor legitimate designs on the SEC East title.
The Bulldogs, under new head coach Kirby Smart, must replace most of their linebacking corps and find a long term solution (Jacob Eason) at quarterback, while the Gators must also improve at the quarterback position (Luke Del Rio?) while coping with the loss of several draft picks from their defense.
Kentucky and South Carolina are tied for fourth in these projections, and both fan bases would celebrate that result.
The Wildcats, coming off back-to-back 5-7 seasons, are trying to get back to a bowl game. To do so, they will need consistency from sophomore quarterback Drew Barker and some improvement — and a much better pass rush — from the defense.
South Carolina, last season’s basement dweller at 3-9 overall, is breaking in a new coaching staff and facing questions all over its roster.
But Will Muschamp has brought in renewed enthusiasm to the program. There are eight true or redshirt freshmen listed on the team’s post-spring depth chart, and it’s not hard to imagine five or six more first-year players getting in the mix when they arrive this summer.
Vanderbilt is next in sixth place, and the Commodores will be looking to make this prognostication look silly. Their key to improving on last season’s 4-8 finish will be quarterback Kyle Shurmur. Any help from the offense will help a talented, but overworked defense this fall.
Missouri rounds out the projections, simply because it has too many questions to be picked any higher.
Can new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel develop quarterback Drew Lock and fix one of the nation’s worst offenses? Can the defense cope with the loss of Kentrell Brothers, the nation’s leading tackler? Can new coach Barry Odom follow in Gary Pinkel’s footsteps and build a winner at Missouri through hard work and player development?
Time will tell for Missouri, and indeed, for the rest of the SEC East.
Wonder what Zoo fans think of this ranking? Oh never mind I have a good idea…….lol.
We aren’t expecting a lot this season. But not getting any credit where it’s deserved is what’s frustrating.
You can thank your boycotting threatening players and Pinkle’s support of them for destroying the cohesion on your team. Missouri has far bigger problems than what your record will be this year.
And those problems would be…?
At least give the defense the credit they deserve. Only losing one player and bringing almost everyone back, including Brantley, who was out all last year. Had a Top 10 defense in the country last season, and somehow we drop to 4th in the East, while bringing almost everyone back? Doubt it.
What a stupid article. I will bet anyone that wants to bet Mizzou doesn’t finish last in the east.
I’m all Vol, but must say, Zou handled coming into the SEC way better than ne1 thought they would. They’ve been a helluva team, hopefully losing Pinkel doesn’t hurt Mizzou like losing Fulmer hurt UT.
Mizzou has a top 10 defense last year, loses one play and returns Harold Brantley who missed all of 2015 and we are now the fourth best defense in the east? Do these guys even watch football? Our offense was pathetic, I get that but come on.
2013…
Was 3 years ago.
For a MIZ fan 2016 is starting out just like 2013. Ranked at the bottom of the east, as well they should.
Oh please, you guys had a couple of good years while the east was down. Then you ran your mouths the entire offseason.
Florida and tennessee are back, and missouri will be irrelevant like they have been for the next 20 years.
Come on DD2, you should know the only three things we’re guaranteed is death, taxes and Mizzou fans complaining about “lack of respect” haha
You two are hilarious. I didn’t have the opportunity to meet either of you last year in Athens, but I will say the dawg fans I tailgated with were realists & awesome CFB fans. MIZ has a good deal to prove, but that could be said about every team in the east including tour dawgs. Irrelevant for the next 20 years? Hasn’t happened since Pinkle was hired, don’t suspect it will happen anytime soon. Though you two are idiots, I do wish your dawgs well.
By the looks of your username, I thought you would be a an Alabama fan. Missouri isn’t the U of anything.
-Irrelevant in football
-Poor education
-Columbia Missouri
-concerned student
D-Line-U, sorry, but you’re the idiot if you deny that a faction of your fanbase doesn’t whine about not being included in everything…if you’ve been here long enough, you’ll notice that a lot of others (from other fanbases) make the same observation. And try not to be so thin-skinned, we all take shots around here. At least we’re not as bad here as SEC Smack…those fools are just plain obnoxious.
All that aside, I wouldn’t have known you even we had of met, however, all the Mizzou fans I did meet in ATH were awesome folks and fun to chat with. As far as being a realist goes, I don’t have unwarranted expectations for UGA this year. I think they’ll do good but I won’t be surprised if Smart’s first season gets a little bumpy. Good luck to Zou as well.
Me thinks these two particular Georgia fellas are still a bit butthurt about not being able to take care of business and secure the East back in 14′
This fella is just fine, Cap’n…nice handle, by the way, William Quantrill…hell of a scrapper. But no, 2014 has long been an afterthought. Besides, let-downs under Richt were commonplace and weren’t that big of a surprise. Since you bring up 2014, maybe you’re still butthurt by that embarrassment at home, compliments of UGA, then getting run off the field in ATL. I applaud Mizzou’s early successes in the SEC, I really do, but competition in the East is only getting tougher and I don’t see Mizzou recruiting well enough (at the moment) to keep up.
Missouri is irrelevant and never should have come to the SEC.
No one is butthurt, it was comical to watch you get steamrolled.
And now things are back to normal, Missouri is irrelevant and fighting for bowl birth.
Please keep in mind that for as much of a dumpster fire we were last year we still were chosen for a bowl, but declined. This was with the worst offense I’ve seen at Mizzou in my 41 years. I hate to think what that says about last years state of college football. As far as recruiting, well that’s never been our strong point, but I challenge you to provide a better program that develops talent from unrated and 2 and 3 star athletes.
Kansas State
And there’s a reason you guys can’t bring5 stars to Columbia.
Ya’ll did a hell of a job developing players under Pinkel, I won’t argue that. Question is, can the current staff continue that trend.
Come on Legend, that’s like saying K-State would have represented you in Atlanta in 13′ and 14′. Snarky comments with no validity make you sound ignorant. MU has consistently cherry picked the Kansas kids; that’s without dispute. It’s even easier to sway a Kansas kid now that MU recruiters can come into a HS prospects home and promise a national audience every Saturday with the SEC’s exposure.
Southfork, let’s hope Odom can continue the trend. This years cycle wasn’t horrible, especially given that we changed coaching directions at the end of the season and all the other chaos taking place in Columbia last year.
And speaking of 5 -Star athletes Legend, your 2013 SEC Defensive Player of the Year was a 2-Star gay kid from MU ; just let that sink in for a bit…
I’m sure you’re also familiar with Shane Ray. You may remember him as the 3-Star kid from MU that was the 2014 SEC Defensive Player Of the Year.
F@gU
Way to stay classy, bieber
These are just numbers that mean nothing… Any Given Saturday…
I’m just gonna be totally honest, I’m not sold on Tennessee winning the East. They got the hype, but let’s face it, this ain’t the first time they’ve had a lot of hype, and each time they’ve fallen short of that hype.
How have they fallen short of the hype. They have finished where they was predicted. Last year the said Tennessee was gonna be 2nd in East. They finished 2nd. One fluke play from winning the east. Don’t get it messed up Bama. Yall didn’t beat Tennessee till the end of the game. Soak that in
If Carolina hadn’t fumbled on the 3 then that “upset” would have set Tenn back. I agree that lots of hype and LOTS of pressure will be on Tenn this year.
You mean if tennessee didnt force that fumble, it didnt just slip out it was knocked out.
if if if if if
Unless you’re talking about the latter years of fulmers career, I don’t remember a season we were hyped up and fell short. Fill me in on when you’re talking about.
Wait so you want him to let it sink in that Bama beat Tennessee? It doesn’t matter if it’s the last play if the game you lost. I guess those moral victories is all you have now.
I think the excitement from a new head coach and element of surprise will give UGA the edge. I also think Vandy will finish 4th.
It always adds up for Tennessee and they fold as they will this year vs UGA and FLA.
“Always.” Please quit regurgitating the Barrett Sallee/Bleacher Report narrative. We haven’t been picked to win the East in years, and appropriately so. This will be the best team we’ve had in years and (from a glance now, we’ll revisit that later after the season) the easiest schedule we’ve had in years, which still isn’t saying much with UGA, UF, A&M and Bama on the schedule. VT is no slouch either on defense, sort of like a Mizzou or Vandy.
I’m not sold we win the East, but we SHOULD be in the conversation til the end, and honestly barring unforeseen circumstance, if we aren’t in the conversation until the end it will likely be due to either key injuries or a massive coaching failure.
Just like they folded.last year against your beloved dawgs.. try again
That was their marquee win of the decade…which says a lot
Yes. It does. It says that we are finally back in the East division title race conversation. It says we are finally fielding talent worthy of competing in the SEC after a decade of a program being mishandled horribly. It says we are finally returning to being one of the big 3 in the East.
You dislike us, so you see that as a negative thing, that beating you guys or Northwestern was a big deal, and therefore was a bad thing. Well, look at it this way, it was a big deal and it means we’re returning to being able to compete with anyone in the country again. We took Bama to the wire in Tuscaloosa, and UGA got blown out at home. I’d take the direction of our program over yours currently, but we’ll see just how Smart does soon enough.
DuVOL, you make some reasonable points…can’t say the same of some other UT fans. I’ll admit, ya’ll are going to put a damn good team on the field in 2016 (still, I have to think the Dawgs get the W in ATH haha). One point I’d disagree with you on is the direction of our program. We’re already loaded with talent and Smart has been on fire with recruiting. We will see soon enough, you’re right, and if Smart coaches anything like he recruits then I feel really good about the future.
I don’t think a Georgia fan has a right to talk about falling short of the hype… Fired any coaches lately for falling short of expectations? Oh, that’s right…
Won’t argue wit you about UGA falling short of hype, but I don’t think a Tennessee fan wants to get into a conversation about firing & hiring coaches either…
Wonder why brother Lane did so bad at UT and so good at Bama?
Cause he is not a head coach, and is a very good OC. It’s simple. On that note, I really hope he is Bama’s coach-in-waiting.
I think this is perfect. There are too many questions. I mean the defensive positioning is a joke. Losing by less than a touchdown multiple times, with a terrible offensive and return game. Hey, all new coaching staffs have to prove themselves. Pick us last.Prove it Mizzou.
I have doubts about all of them. The top three look right. Can’t wait.
Please explain how UT has the top ranked coaching staff? Butch can recruit, but I’ve seen him blow several games for them….
Because it was debords play calling that post those games and there isnt another staff in the easy that has has incremental improvement since he started.
I agree with this for UK I think UK is becoming more of a mid level team and has more or less separated itself from the bottom of the East (Mizzou, USC, vandy).
Nope
UK will never be a mid level team. Keep dreaming. Your team hasn’t made a bowl game since 2010.
Mizzou fans going to get heated over this one. Tennessee will lose to Florida AGAIN this year but finish strong. Biggest question I have – If UT doesn’t win the East, does the faith in Butch Jones go away?
Oh hells yes it does. Idk how all the other Vol fans say we haven’t been hyped before just 2 fail, I’m a Vol fan, and i recall being hyped Dooleys 3rd year, and last year. Until 11 and 9 stop growing, I can’t say UT will take the east.
Hyped by whom? We haven’t been the unanimous decision to win the East in years. If you’re referring to some of our dumb fans, or some know nothing national media members, then I can agree with that.
It’s so wonderful to see you have a crystal ball. We might as well not even play the game.
Look, I’ll just say this, if we don’t beat you guys at home with the team we return this year, Jones may never during his time at UT. We SHOULD win, but will we is the question.
Idiots all! One bad season 2012 . . we are bottom feeders. East champs in 2013, fluke and we’re still bottom feeders. Wtf? East champs again in 2014, and guess what we’re bottom feeders. Finally no excuses bad season in 2015. So this is what the bottom looks like. Haven’t had back to back bad seasons in what 20 yrs? And not this upcoming season. Look for us at or near the top crybabies. Dumbasses!