With as many as 10 SEC teams engaged in some type of a quarterback competition this spring, projecting winners is risky at best.

Last year, for instance, Chad Kelly didn’t come out of spring practice as Ole Miss’ projected starter, and all he did was become the third quarterback in SEC history to throw for 4,000 yards.

Eventual SEC coach of the year Jim McElwain initially picked Treon Harris over Will Grier before quickly changing his mind. Jacob Coker and Cooper Bateman continued their battle into the third week of the regular season.

All of which is to say: We’re a long, long way from settling some of these races. But here’s what we think will happen going into the 2016 opener.

Alabama: Cooper Bateman

Chance of starting opener: 51 percent.

Advantage: Slight edge in game experience, leadership, hallmark characteristics of a Nick Saban-coached team.

Contenders: Blake Barnett, David Cornwell.

Bottom line: The most interesting part of the Bateman-Barnett race is what happens to the backup? Logic would suggest if Barnett is the runner-up, he could become a transfer candidate because Bateman is just a junior.

Barnett has a stronger arm and better chance to drive the ball downfield. Bateman is the safer pick — think Greyson Lambert — and adds a touch more mobility.

Arkansas: Austin Allen

Chance of starting opener: 99 percent.

Advantage: Experience in the program.

Contenders: Rafe Peavey, Ty Storey, Ricky Town.

Bottom line: Bret Bielema told reporters that Allen and Peavey have separated from the pack.

Allen replaced his brother in high school and won two state titles, so he is quite familiar with the drill. If he isn’t ready to step in after three years, that’s not a good sign in terms of Arkansas’ ability to groom and develop.

Auburn: Jeremy Johnson

Chance of starting opener: 51 percent.

Advantage: Experience, results.

Contenders: John Franklin III, Sean White.

Bottom line: There’s no denying the sense of excitement Franklin brings to the offense and a frustrated fan base. There’s the added bonus that Clemson has seen next to nothing of him, so an opening day curveball — or, given Franklin’s speed, fastball — might be in store.

The concern would be Johnson’s mental state if he isn’t the starter.

Florida: Luke Del Rio

Chance of starting opener: 80 percent.

Advantage: Most time in the system.

Contender: Austin Appleby.

Bottom line: McElwain has praised Del Rio’s poise and passing throughout the spring. It’s tough to ignore Appleby’s experience, however, having been a starter in the Big Ten.

McElwain used two quarterbacks last year and it’s not out of the question that this competition could continue through early September, especially if Del Rio struggles.

Georgia: Greyson Lambert

Chance of starting opener: 95 percent.

Advantage: Experience.

Contenders: Jacob Eason, Brice Ramsey.

Bottom line: Oddly, Eason might have had a better chance of winning the job out of the gate had Mark Richt remained his coach because then the only new thing about the offense would have been the quarterback.

Now, everything is new — head coach, offensive coordinator, etc., — and Lambert’s experience in dealing and handling difficult situations could help him keep the job — for a while, anyway.

Kentucky: Drew Barker

Chance of starting opener: 99 percent.

Advantage: Experience, arm strength.

Contender: Stephen Johnson.

Bottom line: Kentucky has two new offensive minds in Eddie Gran and Darin Hinshaw. Both recruited Barker when they were at Cincinnati. Both also told Johnson he will be given an opportunity to win the job.

Johnson brings an a running threat to the equation, but Barker seems to have taken over the team leadership role. Performance dictates decisions, but it’s certainly his job to lose.

LSU: Brandon Harris

Chance of starting opener: 100 percent.

Advantage: Game experience, ability.

Contender: Danny Etling.

Bottom line: There are whispers of a competition, but the reality is Etling was brought in to push Harris more so than take his job.

Harris has looked sharp this spring, and why wouldn’t he? Cam Cameron told NOLA.com that the Tigers are focusing more attention on the passing game.

Mississippi State: Nick Fitzgerald

Chance of starting opener: 60 percent.

Advantage: Some game experience, served as Dak Prescott’s backup in 2015.

Contenders: Damian Williams, Elijah Staley, Nick Tiano.

Bottom line: Dan Mullen has said throughout no decision will be made until fall camp. The race is in its early stages. Williams has a slight edge in game experience, and has started. Fitzgerald took the first snaps in Saturday’s scrimmage and seemed to outplay his competition on an average offensive day overall.

Missouri: Drew Lock

Chance of starting opener: 100 percent.

Advantage: Returning starter.

Contenders: Marvin Zanders and Jack Lowary.

Bottom line: Lock replaced Maty Mauk as starter and team leader as a freshman last season. He has since admitted he wasn’t ready. He seems much more comfortable with everything this spring and is especially excited to work with new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel, the 2000 Heisman Trophy runner-up.

Ole Miss: Chad Kelly

Chance of starting opener: 100 percent.

Advantage: Best returning quarterback in the SEC.

Contender: Shea Patterson, the five-star freshman in waiting.

Bottom line: Kelly didn’t win the job last spring, but he took control in fall camp and went on to break school records and throw for 4,000 yards. Ole Miss is expecting an encore performance.

South Carolina: Brandon McIlwain

Chance of starting opener: 90 percent.

Advantage: Russell Wilson-like intangibles, dual-threat ability.

Contenders: Perry Orth, Connor Mitch, Lorenzo Nunez.

Bottom line: True freshmen typically aren’t the answer at quarterback in this league, but McIlwain isn’t a typical true freshman. He’s already a college athlete, having played some for South Carolina’s baseball team.

He’s an accurate passer who can run, not a sprinter lined up behind center.

He opened spring second on the depth chart behind Orth, who is now out until June with a broken collarbone.

Tennessee: Joshua Dobbs

Chance of starting opener: 100 percent.

Advantage: Second-best returning quarterback in the SEC.

Contender: Quinten Dormady.

Bottom line: Tennessee has national championship aspirations, and Dobbs will be a central figure in determining how close the Vols get to realizing them.

Texas A&M: Trevor Knight

Chance of starting opener: 95 percent.

Advantage: Success, game experience at Oklahoma.

Contender: Jake Hubenak.

Bottom line: The Aggies have a new offensive coordinator in Noel Mazzone’s whose up-tempo system seems to fit Knight’s skill-set. Both quarterbacks are more than capable — Hubenak stepped in with limited regular season reps and threw for 300 yards in the bowl game — and the Aggies return perhaps the league’s most dangerous wideout corps.

QB play will not be an issue this season for a team that could sneak into the SEC West title chase.

Vanderbilt: Kyle Shurmur

Chance of starting opener: 100 percent.

Advantage: Took over late last season as starter.

Contenders: Wade Freebeck, Shawn Stankavage.

Bottom line: It’s Shurmur or punt for Vanderbilt.

“We have some young talent, and we saw the emergence of a young quarterback in Shurmur,” Derek Mason told reporters after the final game in 2015. “Shurmur is going to continue to lead this program exactly where we need to go.”