Ranking SEC teams ATS: Ole Miss slays in Vegas
Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
The Ole Miss Runnin’ Rebels have earned big bucks in Las Vegas this season.
Coach Hugh Freeze’s team has been a two-touchdown favorite on average, just the seventh-strongest average line in the SEC despite a relatively weak schedule. (Unranked Florida and LSU, for instance, are favored by more points on average through Week 6.)
Yet the Rebels beat Alabama on Saturday as a five-point home ‘dog after scrambling for a push against Memphis the week before. Ole Miss now is 4-0-1 against the spread. The team entered Wednesday morning as an underdog for a second consecutive week despite a No. 3 national ranking, needing only to beat Texas A&M by any margin to cash yet another bet ATS.
Other big ATS winners in the SEC include Arkansas (4-1), Kentucky (4-1) and Mississippi State (4-1).
Arkansas (+72.5) has outperformed the rest of the SEC relative to the spread, but Ole Miss is gaining ground. South Carolina fell to 1-5 ATS with a SU loss at Kentucky and has underperformed against the line by 56.5 points. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has made a slow climb out of last place with three consecutive wins ATS.
SEC teams held at 20-13-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents this week with all six games pitting division rivals.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Alabama is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Crimson Tide is +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Arkansas | +72.5 | 4-1 |
| 2. Ole Miss | +58 | 4-0-1 |
| 3. Texas A&M | +56.5 | 3-3 |
| 4. Kentucky | +41.5 | 4-1 |
| 5. Auburn | +39 | 3-2 |
| 6. Tennessee | +38 | 2-3 |
| 7. Mississippi State | +28 | 4-1 |
| 8. Missouri | +23 | 3-2 |
| 9. Georgia | +6.5 | 2-3 |
| 10. Florida | +5.5 | 2-2 |
| 11. LSU | -2 | 2-3-1 |
| 12. Alabama | -23.5* | 1-3* |
| 13. Vanderbilt | -49.5 | 3-3 |
| 14. South Carolina | -56.5 | 1-5 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Alabama’s average Vegas line through five games is minus-26, highest in the conference.
Half of the SEC’s 14 teams are at least a two-touchdown favorite on average through Week 6, with Mississippi State (-13.9) missing that mark by a fraction.
The state of Tennessee holds the only two SEC teams who are an underdog on average in Tennessee (+4) and Vanderbilt (+11.1).
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Alabama | -26 | -46.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 2. Georgia | -22.1 | -42 vs. Troy |
| 3. Auburn | -19.8 | -34 vs. San Jose State |
| 4. LSU | -18.3 | -43 vs. New Mexico State |
| 5. Texas A&M | -17.9 | -47 vs. Lamar |
| 6. Florida | -16.5# | -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan |
| 7. Ole Miss | -14 | -26 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 8. Mississippi State | -13.9 | -30.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 9. Missouri | -9.4 | -26 vs. South Dakota State |
| 10. South Carolina | -8.6 | -21.5 at Vanderbilt |
| 11. Kentucky | -6.3 | -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
| 12. Arkansas | -5.7 | -40.5 vs. Nicholls State |
| 13. Tennessee | +4 | -16.5 vs. Arkansas State |
| 14. Vanderbilt | +11.1 | -15.5 vs. Massachussetts |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
All five of Georgia’s games have gone over the posted total, which has averaged a meager 58.1 points. Gamblers can thank a mediocre defense and one of the nation’s most dominant running games for that.
Tennessee’s games have gone the other way — under the total four times out of five. The Vols showed why Saturday in a 10-9 loss to the Florida Gators: a better than average defense and a shoddy offensive line.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M (69.3) averages the highest over/under, while Vanderbilt (49.6) averages the lowest.
| Team | Average Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 69.3 | 76.5 vs. Lamar | 3/3 |
| 2. Arkansas | 65.2 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 4/1 |
| 3. Missouri | 61.0 | 71.5 vs. Indiana | 2/3 |
| 4. Auburn | 60.5 | 67.0 vs. San Jose State | 3/2 |
| 5. South Carolina | 59.1 | 65.0 vs. East Carolina | 4/2 |
| 6. Georgia | 58.1 | 64.0 vs. Troy | 5/0 |
| 7. Mississippi State | 57.6 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 3/2 |
| 8. Tennessee | 55.8 | 59.5 vs. Arkansas State | 1/4 |
| 9. Ole Miss | 54.6 | 59.0 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette | 2/3 |
| 10. LSU | 54.3 | 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State | 3/3 |
| 11. Alabama | 53.3 | 56.5 vs. Southern Miss | 3/1 |
| 12. Florida | 53.0# | 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan | 3/1 |
| 13. Kentucky | 52.2 | 55 vs. South Carolina | 3/2 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | 49.6 | 53 vs. Georgia | 3/3 |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
