Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Week 5 eliminated 11 more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 85 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope this season, while three more teams are alive on paper only, one-loss power conference teams Cal, Oregon State and Rutgers.

If the season ended today, the top three SEC West teams wouldn’t have played each other. That will resolve itself in the next few weeks. Right now, the SEC winner, Oklahoma, Oregon and Florida State have the easiest path to the Playoff, with Baylor and Notre Dame lurking.

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Alabama

Score: 19

Last Week: No. 1

The Numbers Say: Alabama’s combined offensive and defensive efficiency are second in the country to Baylor. Now that the team ranks No. 1 in the Coaches Poll and gained three spots in Football Outsiders’ FEI metric, the Tide are a clear No. 1 in our playoff predictor.

Bottom Line: The Tide just need to keep winning.

Next Up: at Ole Miss.

2. Oklahoma

Score: 41

Last Week: No. 4

The Numbers Say: The Sooners remain the No. 2 team in the country according to Vegas and the Sagarin Ratings. OU also gained some ground in efficiency during the bye week as other teams slipped.

Bottom Line: The Sooners play their toughest road game of the season Saturday in what could be the team’s biggest test before Baylor.

Next Up: at TCU.

3. Texas A&M

Score: 42.5

Last Week: No. 2

The Numbers Say: The Aggies went from the team with the sixth-best national championship odds to the 10th-best after the overtime win against Arkansas. A&M also lost marginal ground in overall efficiency and still ranks outside the Top 5 in both human polls.

Bottom Line: The Aggies nearly fell behind 35-14 to Arkansas at a neutral site and needed two late touchdowns to score 28 points. Can the offense do enough to compensate for a so-so defense on the road against teams like Alabama, Mississippi State and Auburn?

Next Up: at Mississippi State.

4. Auburn

Score: 47

Last Week: No. 3

The Numbers Say: The Tigers are merely good in scoring efficiency, ranking 22nd on offense and 24th on defense. They lose three points to Oklahoma in the polls and two points in Vegas.

Bottom Line: Auburn hasn’t looked especially dominant the last few weeks, but has kept winning in the meantime and should do so again Saturday.

Next Up: vs. LSU.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Oregon

Score: 48.5

Last: No. 5

The Numbers Say: The nation’s 62nd-best defense in terms of scoring efficiency would keep the Ducks out of the playoff if the season ended today, according to our metrics. A slightly better number there — say, 40th in the country — and Oregon would challenge Oklahoma for the No. 2 spot.

Bottom Line: The Ducks still are the Pac-12 favorites, but the offensive line and the defense are shaky.

Next Up: vs. Arizona (Thursday).

6. Baylor

Score: 51

Last: No. 6

The Numbers Say: The Bears still have the best combined scoring efficiency in the country and have the sixth-best title odds according to Vegas, but rank just 16th in the FEI metric.

Bottom Line: The next three games will either derail Baylor before it gets a chance or reinforce its credibility ahead of a tremendous matchup with Oklahoma.

Next Up: at Texas.

7. Florida State

Score: 67

Last: No. 7

The Numbers Say: Speaking of efficiency, the 24 points FSU gave up to N.C. State in the first quarter Saturday didn’t help their 70th-ranked defense. The offense only ranks 28th, but with Jameis Winston back on track, that should improve. Sagarin has the team at No. 9, but if FSU had even decent efficiency, the Seminoles would rank in our top four.

Bottom Line: Florida State’s offense may be good enough to overcome the defensive flaws. This team should start October with a pair of snoozers.

Next Up: vs. Wake Forest.

8. Notre Dame

Score: 77

Last: No. 8

The Numbers Say: Vegas, Football Outsiders and Sagarin all rank this team between 12 and 15, but the Irish have a strong combined efficiency and rank in the Top 10 in both human polls.

Bottom Line: Beat the Cardinal this weekend and the Oct. 18 game against Florida State is about more than the potential demise of the Seminoles.

Next Up: vs. Stanford.

9. Ole Miss

Score: 80

Last: No. 9

The Numbers Say: The Rebels fall just outside the Top 10 in almost every metric. That consistency is both a strength and a weakness in terms of numbers, but none of that will matter if Ole Miss keeps winning.

Bottom Line: The Rebels have one of the country’s best defenses, but it appears more and more likely Bo Wallace will lose them a game or two.

Next Up: vs. Alabama.

10. Georgia

Score: 100.5

Last: No. 11

The Numbers Say: The team’s No. 53 defensive efficiency is its biggest Achilles heel, but the Bulldogs also lag behind in the polls and analytics. Oh, and there’s the fact that they’ve lost a game.

Bottom Line: Georgia has to be the SEC East favorite right now, and will get a chance to cement that in two Saturdays.

Next Up: vs. Vanderbilt.

THE DAN MARINOS

Strong contenders, still alive, but unlikely to actually win anything.

11. UCLA: 107
T12. Mississippi State: 111
T12. Stanford: 111
14. Michigan State: 114.5
15. USC: 124
16. Nebraska: 125
17. LSU: 135.5
18. BYU: 139
19. Ohio State: 142.5
20. Wisconsin: 150.5
21. TCU: 159
22. Kansas State: 165
23. Oklahoma State: 174
24. Missouri: 179
25. Marshall: 193.5

THE BRADY HOKES

Good enough to make a mediocre bowl game. Can you say San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl?

26. Louisville: 215.5
27. Florida: 222.5
28. Arizona: 225
29. Maryland: 226.5
30. Georgia Tech: 246.5
T31. Iowa: 263
T31. Kentucky: 263

THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS

The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.

33. Utah: 263.5
34. Duke: 264.5
35. Arizona State: 274
T36. Penn State: 277
T36. Cincinnati: 277
38. Minnesota: 278
39. Washington: 280.5
40. North Carolina State: 286.5

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Count: 3 of 128

California
Oregon State
Rutgers

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 85 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Army
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Central Florida
Central Michigan
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa State
Kansas
Kent State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana Tech
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Old Dominion
Ohio
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas Tech
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UNLV
UTEP
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wyoming