Breaking down the SEC Championship’s complicated tiebreaker scenarios

We’re down to a dozen remaining SEC conference games over the next 2 weeks, which by my reckoning, comes out to just shy of 4,100 possible outcomes. You can contemplate each one of them using the handy SEC Tiebreaker Calculator, which will do the math for any given scenario you can come up with according to the SEC’s official tiebreaker procedure. Of course, some outcomes are a lot more likely than others. As the field continues to thin out, the possibilities are not as inscrutable as meets the eye.

Yes, the tiebreaker language is convoluted, and there is a logjam in the conference standings. With Tennessee’s loss at Georgia, at least 1 of the 2 tickets to the SEC Championship Game is guaranteed to go to a team with 2 conference losses, a group that currently features Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss and Tennessee; the loser of Texas/Texas A&M on Nov. 30 will join the pool, adding another variable to the process. Assuming the chalk holds, that leaves 5 teams vying for 1 slot in Atlanta opposite the UT/A&M winner. Big chaos, right? Eh, not exactly. Punch enough scenarios into the calculator — I personally ran 100 combinations through the system — and some pretty clear patterns emerge:

3 teams control their fate: Texas, Texas A&M and Alabama. The ‘Horns and Aggies are tied atop the standings at 5-1 apiece and are both favored to take care of business in Week 13 against Kentucky and Auburn, respectively, setting up a winner-take-all reunion in Week 14 for sole possession of first place at the end of the regular season. Straightforward enough.

Bama’s case, on the other hand, comes down to the tiebreakers, all of which (surprise!) align in the Crimson Tide’s favor: In every scenario that has them beating Oklahoma and Auburn to finish 6-2, they punch their ticket based on some combination of opponent win percentage and head-to-head priority over Georgia. I’m not gonna break out the spreadsheet here, but long story short: If the Tide win, they’re in.

Let’s say for the sake of keeping it simple that the chalk holds and all 12 remaining games are won by the higher-ranked team or the betting favorite. That would look like this:

Flip the Texas/Texas A&M result to replace the Longhorns in the Championship Game with the Aggies; the basic outline holds. (There are certain circumstances under which A&M could even rebound from a loss at Auburn to make the cut, but they all require Bama to lose; no other team in the conference has any margin for error whatsoever.) Those 3 teams are not scoreboard watching or looking over their shoulder at anyone else.

Georgia is on deck. The hay is in the barn for the Dawgs, who wrapped up conference play at 6-2. Now they wait. They are first in the tiebreaker queue if Alabama eats it against Oklahoma or Auburn; they could also potentially replace Texas or A&M if either side manages to both a) Lose this weekend, and b) Follow up that loss with a head-to-head triumph in College Station, in that order. That means quietly rooting for Auburn, Oklahoma, and/or Kentucky while watching from a distance against UMass.

Tennessee and Ole Miss shouldn’t hold their breath. The Vols and Rebels are still mathematically alive, if things get weird, but we’re talking very weird here. Despite their big head-to-head wins over Alabama and Georgia, respectively, there is no path that gives either a chance to flex that advantage under the tiebreaker format. Instead, they’re banking on Bama, Texas and Texas A&M all dropping at least 1 game apiece, which would necessitate a couple of major upsets by teams from the bottom of the standings any way you slice it. Consider this typical path for Tennessee, which requires ambushes by the likes of Auburn and Kentucky:

Even with the exact right combination of long-shot upsets falling into Tennessee’s lap, that path is still alarmingly narrow. Tweak just a couple of those results — flip Oklahoma/LSU to the Sooners, and Texas/Texas A&M to the Aggies — and just like that the advantage shifts to Ole Miss:

But by the time you’re down to toggling between just-so scenarios that fall apart if even one of your designated miracles fails to fall into place, you’re grasping at straws.

The real question for teams on the bubble: Is it better to miss the conference title game altogether than risk losing it? That’s a question the Playoff Selection Committee needs to consider very carefully before somebody loses a 3rd game in the conference championship.

Matt Hinton

Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.