It’s that time again, time to make our predictions and bets for the upcoming weekend of action in the SEC.
Once again, this season it’s news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS Podcast co-host Chris Marler (@CMarlerSDS) making the weekly SEC picks against the spread.
Michael had his fifth consecutive winning week to open the season during Week 5, bringing his season record to 26-15 against the spread. Chris also had a winning weekend during Week 5, raising his overall record to 21-20 on the season.
Here’s how the guys predict the Week 6 games in the SEC:
LSU (-3) at Florida
Michael: This is a tough game to pick, I was hoping LSU would be closer to a touchdown favorite which would have made Florida an easier pick but I’ll stick with my gut and pick the Gators getting three points in the Swamp. While Dan Mullen’s offense remains a work in progress, Todd Grantham isn’t getting enough credit for the work he’s doing right now in Gainesville. I’ve said many times that he would have been my pick for the Broyles Award last season and he’s carried over that momentum to this season. LSU deserves its lofty ranking but this team is far from unbeatable, heading into a tough environment could be the difference in this one. This game typically features some weird, unforeseen event and this one will likely be more of the same.
Florida 20 LSU 16
Chris: The Swamp People head to The Swamp for one of the most competitive annual games in the SEC. Both of these teams had surprisingly impressive wins last week. Florida’s road win at Mississippi St was dominant as they held the vaunted Bulldog offense to 6 points and only 208 yards. Feleipe Franks looked great as well completing a career-high 22 completions. LSU’s offense got the slumpbuster it needed by playing Ole Miss and their atrocious defense. Joe Burrow looked great, but to be honest I think Air Bud or even Helen Keller could look like Heisman candidates against that Rebel D.
Florida’s defense looks completely different with David Reese and CeCe Jefferson back in the lineup. That being said, I’m not picking against Coach O or Jeaux Burreaux. And, there’s no way Coach O is going to be intimidated by The Swamp because I’m pretty sure he wrestles live gators for morning cardio.
LSU 24 Florida 13
Missouri (-1.5) at South Carolina
Michael: This line has flipped all the way to Missouri after opening in favor of South Carolina. This would have been my favorite bet of the week had it stayed with the Gamecocks as I like the Tigers to not only cover but win this game outright. Will Muschamp’s team is incredibly banged up entering this game, it’s so bad that when the coach starts any media availability, he has to break out a medical dictionary to explain the various injuries suffered by his team. On the other sideline, Missouri is a rested team that’s coming off a bye week. The Tigers get Alabama the following week and as long as they aren’t overlooking this trip to South Carolina, should be able to use this game to build some momentum heading into that one. The fact that Mizzou was able to run all over Georgia bodes well for their chances in this one. Mizzou may be perceived as a pass-happy team but with defenses forced to respect Lock’s arm, the Tigers are consistently facing favorable running matchups and taking advantage of those matchups on a weekly basis.
Missouri 34 South Carolina 24
Chris: Missouri heads to beautiful Columbia, South Carolina to play a Gamecocks team that many think are reeling after a loss to Kentucky. A 5th straight loss to Kentucky at that. Carolina didn’t look great last weekend, as Jake Bentley threw 3 INT’s. But, I think that has more to do with Kentucky than it does with themselves. This weekend they play a Mizzou team that is giving up nearly 300 pass ypg and may be without their biggest offensive weapon Emmanuel Hall. Regardless, I like Mizzou to win because they’re coming off a bye and Drew Lock was lights out last October throwing for 18 TD’s and only 2 INT’s.
Mizzou 34 South Carolina 30
Alabama (-35) at Arkansas
Michael: I talked about how foolish it was to pick Alabama and the near 50-point spread last week, this week, I’ll advise you to take the 35 in this game and run with it. Think what you will about Arkansas, they still have some solid players in several key areas and they continue to play better each week since that humiliating loss to North Texas a few weeks back. In fact, the Razorbacks had a chance to beat Texas A&M on the final possession last week but came up just short. Here’s another interesting stat to consider in this one, Arkansas defensive coordinator John Chavis has faced Alabama 30 consecutive seasons! There’s nothing he hasn’t seen and his knowledge should help this week. Tua Tagovailoa inevitably being taken out from the game at half should make you feel that much better about grabbing the five touchdowns here.
Alabama 42 Arkansas 16
Chris: This is the largest point spread Arkansas has ever faced as a home underdog. Arkansas has played better in recent weeks, and gave A&M a lot more trouble than many thought (as I predicted…). John Chavis is a good defensive coordinator, and this is his 30th straight year facing Alabama as a Defensive Coordinator. That along with the 11 am kickoff on the road makes me want to take the Hogs. However, I think Bama scores 40-50, and I don’t know if Arkansas scores at all.
Alabama 45 Arkansas 6
Kentucky at Texas A&M (-5.5)
Michael: This could be the game of the week in the SEC. It’s interesting to see many continue to doubt Kentucky as they continue to pile up wins on the season and in conference play, no less. This team is strong in trenches and features some elite skill players on both sides of the ball. This game also matches up the league’s No. 1 rushing attack (Kentucky) against the league’s No. 1 rush defense (Texas A&M). How the Aggies respond after playing down to the competition last week against arguably the worst team in the league will be interesting. For the second consecutive week, Kellen Mond made some really bad decisions that cost his team. If he doesn’t correct that issue, the Aggies will lose this game. Expect the Wildcats to keep this one close but I suspect the team won’t have quite the same level of play on the road — Kroger Field has turned into a legit home field advantage for this team. Without Blue Blue Nation behind them, Kentucky suffers their first defeat of the season.
Texas A&M 27 Kentucky 24
Chris: For the 3rd time in a month Kentucky went out and won as an underdog. They even jumped up all the way to #13 in the polls. And, how did Vegas reward them? By making them a 6.5 pt underdog against Texas A&M. As a comedian, I hate two things: responsible career choices and Rodney Dangerfield. That being said Kentucky STILL can’t get no respect. 5.5 points is important for this reason – 73% of teams who are a 5 to 5.5 pt underdog cover the spread, and 40% win outright.
I read that in like 2012. It may still be true. Regardless, one stat that is definitely true is that Terry Wilson has still thrown for only 2 TD’s this entire season, and they were both in the same game. He hasn’t thrown a TD in 4 of 5 games this season, yet somehow UK has won every game this year by double digits. I like Kentucky a lot, and I think their defense is one of the best in the entire country. But, Kyle Field will be too much for Terry Wilson, and this one dimensional Kentucky offense.
Texas A&M 24 Kentucky 20
Vanderbilt at Georgia (-26.5)
Michael: Heading into this one, two things should strike fear into the hearts of Vanderbilt, Georgia hasn’t been playing very well and several Bulldogs have noted the 2016 home loss to the Commodores is fresh on their minds. Why would Georgia’s struggles be bad for Vandy? Kirby Smart hasn’t been pleased and he’s made that quite clear this week during his team’s preparation. I imagine Georgia will take out its frustrations this week on a Commodore team that’s already begun to take its annual slide into the SEC cellar.
Georgia 52 Vanderbilt 14
Chris: I’ll keep this one short and sweet. UGA hasn’t looked like the #2 ranked team in the country in either of their last two games. They’ve looked undisciplined, the offense has stalled at times, and they have struggled to put teams away early when given the chance to do so. Luckily Vanderbilt comes to Athens this weekend which is the football equivalent to having an open book test for Midterms. Vandy gave up 27 points to Tennessee St last weekend are were losing with 8 minutes left in the 4th. I think UGA dominates from start to finish, and much to the dismay of Jordan Rodgers (and his weekly QB rankings) Jake Fromm outperforms Kyle Shurmur. By a lot.
Georgia 48 Vanderbilt 13
Auburn (-3) at Mississippi State
Michael: Call me crazy but I’m going with Mississippi State in this one. In a game featuring two very familiar teams, I’m taking the three points and the homefield advantage. I’ve been adamant for weeks that Auburn isn’t a legitimate top 10 and that has held true as they’ve struggled to mount much of anything on offense. There’s no doubt the Auburn defense is among the best in the conference but Jarrett Stidham hasn’t looked good all season, the offensive line is struggling, no receivers are emerging and Boobie Whitlow is banged up this week. Basically the exact same things, minus a Boobie, can be said for Mississippi State. This may be a race to 14 points, if either team can actually get there. Auburn’s offensive issues stem from the fact that the Tigers can’t run the ball while Mississippi State’s main issue last week was going away from the run. One of those is much easier to alleviate. If Joe Moorhead gives the ball to his talented running backs, look for Mississippi State to pull the upset at home.
Mississippi State 21 Auburn 20
Chris: This matchup makes me feel like I’m watching a game of musical chairs that nobody wants to win. It features two of the most talented D-Lines in the country as well as two of the most inept offenses in the SEC. Miss St has scored 1 TD in 8 Quarters of SEC play, and Auburn’s offense has disappointed its fans worse than a 20-year-old announcing to his/her parents that they’re changing their major to “Art.” This is not what we paid for Auburn.
Regardless, Auburn’s defense has been quietly dominant and has only allowed 5 TD’s the whole season. That’s the lowest in the entire country. I think they go on the road and beat a very, very overrated Mississippi St team and force Nick Fitzgerald into even more mistakes than he usually makes on his own.
Auburn 23 Mississippi State 16
UL-Monroe at Ole Miss (-22.5)
Michael: Ole Miss is playing so poorly right now, it wouldn’t stun me if the Rebels drop this game — and that’s saying something considering how bad UL-Monroe has been this season. Jordan Ta’amu has been shaky for several games in a row, the Nasty Wide Outs have been more nasty than wideouts in recent weeks and this defense can’t stop a runny nose. Look for Monroe to put up a few touchdowns in this one, which should be more than enough to cover the spread if an ailing Ta’amu doesn’t come out clicking with his guys. The Rebels should give Scottie Phillips a career high in carries in this game, which is just another reason to grab the points here.
Ole Miss 42 UL-Monroe 28
Chris: I will bet the mortgage on this game this weekend. Ole Miss has been the most underwhelming thing I’ve seen since The Godfather Pt. 3. However, they’re only a 21 point favorite at home to a team that has lost 3 straight games, and is giving up 300 pass ypg. On top of that, they’re only scoring 21.2 ppg which gives me hope that…gulp…Ole Miss’ defense might actually have a good day. Even if they don’t I think Ta’amu and NWO will light up a defense that gave up 46 points to Georgia State and 43 ppg in their last 3 games.
Landsharks 56 Warhawks 24
A graduate of the University of Tennessee, Michael Wayne Bratton oversees the news coverage for Saturday Down South. Michael previously worked for FOX Sports and NFL.com
