SEC Week 5 predictions (and bets)
We’re back with another round of predictions in anticipation of Week 5 of the SEC season.
SDS news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS Podcast co-host Chris Marler (@VerneFUNquist) are back again to share their (sometimes terrible) predictions picking SEC games and making picks against the spread.
Chris is 10-15-1 against the spread for the season while Michael is 9-17 on the season.
Here is how the guys predict the Week 5 action to play out:
Auburn (-3) at Ole Miss
Michael: This is the toughest game of the week for me to call, could honestly see it going either way. If Auburn takes the ball out of Bo Nix’s hands — that’s wild to even have to say about a QB Gus Malzahn has said will one day lead the Tigers to a championship — they should win this game. Tank Bigsby may just be the best true freshman in the SEC and with the Tigers expected to get Shaun Shivers back this week, Auburn should be able to exploit the Ole Miss run defense on Saturday. Two lingering questions I have entering this matchup, was Matt Corral’s performance last week just an aberration, or has the Ole Miss offense been figured out to a degree? Say what you will about the offensive coaches on the Auburn coaching staff but Kevin Steele is one of the best defensive minds in the SEC. I have more confidence in Auburn’s defense than I do any unit in this game. Steele saves Malzahn from the hot seat once again on Saturday.
Auburn 28 Ole Miss 24
Chris: Besides Barry Bonds 762 career home runs, there is no record in sports that deserves a bigger asterisk than Auburn’s 2-2 record this season. I usually hate hearing the Gus hot seat talk, and I’m definitely over the knee jerk reaction of fans blaming the offensive coordinator while questioning every play call they disagree with.
But in this case it is 10000% accurate. As an OC, why the hell would you allow Bo Nix to throw the ball 35 times a game with only one WR that’s consistently good and an offensive line replacing four starters from last season? Nix is last in the SEC in completion percentage at 54.9%, second to last in YPA and QB Passer Rating (only ahead of Vandy freshman QB Ken Seals by the way). The only passing stats in which he ranks in the top half of the conference are: attempts and interceptions, where he’s tied for third (four).
Auburn is only 2-8 in their last 10 road games under Malzahn. And, the Gus Bus is averaging 10 ppg less on the road than they are at home for the fourth time in the last five seasons. However, there is no better “get right” game for this Auburn offense than this one against Ole Miss’ historically bad defense.
Someone please get this to Chad Morris’ desk ASAFP.
Chad, you have one of the best RBs in the SEC with Tank Bigsby. Repeat after me. RUN. THE. DAMN. BALL. Bigsby is averaging only 12.5 carries per game. That’s a third of the passes you let Nix throw. Switch those. Feed Tank. Also, buy Kevin Steele a beer or dinner for saving your ass multiple times already this season.
Auburn 38 Ole Miss 33
Alabama (-21.5) at Tennessee
Michael: This game has all the ingredients for a class trap game as most were stunned when the line debuted at -17 before jumping to 3+ touchdowns. How focused will Alabama be after putting so much effort into the Georgia game and going through the emotional roller coaster of Nick Saban’s status last week? Tennessee isn’t as bad as it looked last week as the Vols outplayed Kentucky for nearly the entire first half outside of Jarrett Guarantano’s three turnovers and JT Shrout coming off the bench and immediately tossing an interception to the Wildcats. If Tennessee can play mistake-free football, they may even threaten Alabama in this one.
Alabama 38 Tennessee 24
Chris: Man what a difference two weeks makes huh? Well, two weeks for Alabama and six quarters for Tennessee, to be exact. That’s how long it’s taken for the confidence, and mood, of each fanbase to do a complete 180 in polar opposite directions.
Since holding a lead at halftime of the UGA game, the Vols next six quarters have been nothing short of a tailspin that has firmly planted the team right back to where they were a year ago: in a constant state of doubt and inconsistency directed at their coach and quarterback. Meanwhile Bama is once again being preemptively crowned champs, despite the season being only a third of the way over.
Tennessee fans are tired of hearing about the 13-year winning streak, and I would be too. But, the numbers really are astounding: 13 wins in a row by an average of 25 ppg, including 10 wins by 20+ points, and 7 of the last 10 by 30 points or more. The fan in me wants to take Bama and the points. However, there is a realistic path for Tennessee to keep this one close until the 2nd half, and I think they will. Tennessee’s O-Line has taken a lot of heat lately, but if there’s a weak point on this Bama team it’s their front seven. UGA was averaging 5.7 ypc in the first half last week before inexplicably abandoning the run game. Run the football, keep the Tide offense off the field, and then give yourself a chance to…well lose, but lose with dignity.
Alabama 41 Tennessee 23
Kentucky (-5.5) at Missouri
Michael: Mark Stoops may not want to talk about it but his Kentucky program has owned Mizzou in recent seasons and that will continue this weekend if the Wildcat secondary can stay hot against redshirt freshman Connor Bazelak. Having a week off may have been good for the Tigers, Eli Drinkwitz’s team managed to get its COVID issues under control during that time, but I bet Missouri wished it could have played against Vanderbilt last week to continue to build momentum after the big LSU win. While optimism may be high in Columbia after beating LSU, much like Mississippi State’s showing in the season opener, we may look back at that game and say Bo Pelini’s defense was the main reason Mizzou got their first win of the season. Kentucky’s momentum carries over for another week.
Kentucky 24 Missouri 17
Chris: Outside of murder hornets and finding out about the inner workings of America’s tiger/big cat black market via Netflix, nothing has surprised me more than my genuine excitement about this game. I think this might be the best game of the week in the SEC. Freshman QB Connor Bazelak was nothing short of incredible in his first career start against LSU completing 85% of his passes, throwing for over 400 yards, 4 TDs and no INTs.
Connor meet Kentucky’s secondary. They’ve intercepted 9 passes in 2 games.
Kentucky’s offense is still a work in progress in my opinion, and I wonder how they’ll look this week coming off a massive win in Knoxville for the first time in 36 years. I absolutely HATE -5 and -5.5 point spreads because in the last decade 73% of teams favored by that amount have failed to cover and almost a quarter have lost outright. That being said Mark Stoops has won 5 straight vs Mizzou including a 4-1 mark against the spread. If that doesn’t impress you, three of those wins they were an underdog and won outright; twice by double digits.
Call me Natalie Imbruglia because I am torn y’all. Kentucky wins. Mizzou covers.
Kentucky 24 Missouri 20
South Carolina at LSU (-6)
Michael: These two teams are trending in opposite directions right now and with Myles Brennan not expected to play, it’s tough to like LSU’s chances considering the way South Carolina’s secondary has been playing and the Tigers’ inability to run the ball against Missouri and Mississippi State. Mike Bobo may have been the offensive coordinator hire of the offseason in the SEC as he continued to scheme up successful gameplans for the Gamecocks. Bo Pelini, on the other hand, may not make it to Year 2 in Baton Rouge the way his defense is playing. LSU may have more talent than South Carolina but this coaching matchup may decide this game. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup — especially with LSU expected to play two true freshman quarterbacks, I’ll take the Gamecocks to win outright.
South Carolina 30 LSU 17
Chris: Last week I picked USC to win over Auburn outright because “Will Muschamp is always good for one stupid, unexplainable win a year.” But, is he good for two? Honestly, I don’t know. What I do know is that he’s not going to ever have a better chance at beating LSU than he does right now. USC is coming off a big win, LSU’s starting QB is out, LSU’s defense is hot garbage, and Death Valley at Night will be a shell of its usual self.
I think this matchup actually favors Carolina to be honest. Carolina showed last week that they can shut down an elite WR, and they should get Israel Mukuamu back. Shi Smith may not be as reliable this week if LSU puts Derek Stingley on him all day. But, how does this LSU team stop anyone for 4 straight quarters? A freshman QB and disaster hire at defensive coordinator seems like a horrible combination in 2020. And, I’m still not over how good LSU made Mississippi State and KJ Costello look. Letting it ride, and doubling down on Carolina for another upset.
South Carolina 30 LSU 27
Certainly can’t blame people for picking SC here. We are quite the question mark now. All signs are pointing in the wrong direction for LSU. Hopefully that week off did some good.
I don’t know about the spread but:
Ole Miss beats Auburn
Bama beats UT
Mizzou beats UK
USC beats LSU
Aub vs Ole Miss- Weird gm to call. The Gus Bus would have the wheels coming off with a loss. Kiffin will pull out all the stops like he did vs Bama. I can see the Rebs winning but this is the type of gm Gus pulls out when his back is against the wall. It’ll get crazy if he doesn’t………. Aub 38 Ole Miss 34
Bama vs UT- For the better part of the 2000s, UT hasn’t been much better than Vandy. They’re a long ways off from competing in the East with UGA and UF. Tide big then Saban lets up. Bama 41 UT 17
UK vs Mizzou: I still have the Cats third in the East despite the 2 early losses. They seem to have come to grips with seeing themselves as a dominant running tm with dominant lines. UK 27 Mizzou 17
LSU vs SC- Tigers in desperate need of a win. Losing Brennan and starting Fr Finely doesn’t help. If the Def buys in and commits to tackling people. LSU could walk away with this one. I have nothing to support my position other than homerism, but I got LSU 31 SC 24
Ole Miss has two good RBs and a better QB. Auburn’s OC wants to impress the media with his play calling more than do what it takes to win games. Ole Miss bounces back and drops Auburn to 1-4.
Bama wins, duh!
Kentucky is too much better on both sides of the ball.
OBJ is still taking the LSU players out partying, so they’ll be too hungover to care.
Kentucky is too much better on both sides of the ball.
Really?! Both? LOL Did you watch any of the games? I guess you just don’t like Missouri.
Congrats on beating LSU and beating LSU is a good thing, just not this year so far. LSU hasn’t even had a tough SEC match yet and they only beat Vandy. They were just totally unprepared against Miss St.
Kentucky could easily be 3-1 as 2-2. It’s not like I dont’ like Mizz.
Kentucky is better defensively and the have had convincing offensive performances. I’ll retract my statement as we will find out tomorrow.
SC wins
Alabama wins and covers
Ole Miss wins
Kentucky wins Mizzou covers
You couldn’t make the Bama-UT line high enough. Bama is getting at least 45, how much can UT score?
UK is going to win comfortablely. Mizzou is maybe better at only QB (well, at least when Bazelak is playing LSU). Bolton is a heck of a player, but there’s just not enough talent in that program right now. It reminds me of Kentucky’s matchup with a certain former App State coach last year.
I have no idea about Auburn-Ole Miss. Something tells me that Ole Miss gets back on track, I could see Lane starting to really put heat on Gus as well. Eventually, Gus’s many lives will run out right?
LSU can’t be this bad, right? Auburn low-key gashed SC last week, Bo Nix’s mistakes gave a ton of points to the Gamecocks. Give me LSU.
Last week I went 4-1 pickin’ winners so I’m at 20-7.
This is probably the hardest game to pick so far this year. Honestly, I’m just gonna guess based on roster talent.
Auburn 38, Rebearsharks 31.
Bama 42, Vols 21.
Kentucky 28, Mizzou 14.
South Carolina 28, LSU 21.
now do next weeks State vs Alabama!
I say 52-3. That is, if State can move the ball into field goal range.
Lol I’ll do it next week. We’re focused on your bad team right now, there’ll be plenty of time to talk about mine.
I’m not having a good season on picks.
7-12 ATS (9-10 SU) I missed week 1
Give me Ole Miss +3 and to win outright
I think Bama will win, just not a greater than 3 TD game.
Kentucky over Mizzou by at least a TD
South Carolina wins outright vs LSU.
It worries me with folks picking my Gamecocks over LSU. I am very cautiously optimistic about our chances despite our HC’s proven talent at find ways to lose winable games. Like Michael Bratton, I think that Bobo has been a home run hire. And this week the NCAA made our second best receiver (a transfer) available. Hopefully Harris continues to run like a beast through D lines and our secondary gets some more turnovers. This game is doable if our players come into it not too intimidated.
Welcome to Tennessee Hate Week. This game is too important (despite the Vols well deserved struggles this past decade) for Saban to go easy on them. Bama by 30+.
Yes, Tank needs more touches. The 12.5 carries a game is very skewed though.. Shivers was the go to guy to begin the season then he got hurt vs UK. Since then it has been pretty much Tank and the last two games he has averaged 18 carries a game. Also, if and when Tank gets more touches and possibly gets injured, I better not see an article or line about “Gus runs his running backs into the ground” like in the past..
Painfull as it is, our chance of outscoring USC will be sitting in the bench. Truth is we did make Miss St.’s offense look good. Picking BAMA, Aurburn, Kentucky, and I can’t bring myself to say it,but GEAUX TIGERS anyway.
Preamble: “always bet responsibly and with preferably with someone else’s money”
AUB 77 v OM 76- defensively both teams play like they have the Covid. Take the over.
ALA v TN – in one of the major upsets…eh can’t even type the rest. Just give the points…no matter the spread
KY 21 v MZ 24 – KY’s 3 pick sixes just aren’t enough in Columbia.
SC 24 v LSU 24 – neither team really wants the win, all SEC soccer fans love ties anyway.
you are either giving Aub’s offense a lot of credit, or absolutely zero credit to the Ole Miss D. With Chad the OC, Aubbie has a hard time scoring vs air.
We get it.. Arkansas fans hate Chad. Move on
Check out the read on SDS “10 Arkansas things that are truly amazing considering the Chad Morris era struggles”
Not just Ark fans. and BTW writer after writer and commentator after commentator say how much we should be 3-1 because of that gift the refs gave Aub.
I saw it and it’s not a good article IMO. All the blame of course goes to the HC but you aren’t going to compete in this league with a pitiful defense. That was Chavis more than Morris. Also the Arkansas offense is avg 18 ppg (21 points off of D) this year which is down from 21 from last year so it looks like it wasn’t all Chad. UGA has a great D and will be in every game because of it, same for Auburn last year. When you have a D that can hold its own then you give your O a chance regardless of how bad they are. Arkansas’s problems last year and 2018 were way more than Morris and the Arkansas fans that only think it was him are idiots.
They can write, comment and cry all they want but it’s not going to change so.. move on. It’s over.
@wde, so you’re saying you’re satisfied with the job Morris is doing on the plains???? Lol
I don’t think the problem is Morris.. bo had the same problems last year. Considering the off season, no spring practice and 4 new OL I’m not discouraged by him. I’m more discouraged by Bo than him. Sure Morris could run Tank more. First time auburn has had back to back 400+ yard games on O since 2018 though so that’s a positive. You can tell it’s a different offense and not predictable like in the past so I’m pleased with that.
Ole Miss–38, Auburn–31
Alabama–38, Tennessee–24
Kentucky–27, Missouri–14
S. Carolina–31, LSU–27
The best part of reading about these picks is the GUYS PICKING THEM!
“Chris is 10-15-1 against the spread for the season while Michael is 9-17 on the season.”
– So the odds are most of these will be wrong! Sweet! ;)
Against the spread, most will be wrong but they likely get 90% right straight up.
Funny how they bash Bo Nix as a horrible passer(he is) and then talk about how good SC defensive backs are(they aren’t).
LSU 28, SC 17
Tide by 40 or 60 or however high they choose
Ole Piss by 7. Auburn looks terrible
KY jelly by3. Or the other way
LSU by10. Brennan will play if they need him