SEC Week 6 predictions (and bets)
We’re back with another round of predictions in anticipation of Week 6 of the SEC season.
SDS news desk editor Michael Bratton (@MichaelWBratton) and SDS Podcast co-host Chris Marler (@VerneFUNquist) are back again to share their (sometimes terrible) predictions picking SEC games and making picks against the spread.
Chris is 12-17-1 against the spread for the season while Michael is 10-20 on the season.
Here is how the guys predict the Week 6 action to play out:
Georgia (-15.5) at Kentucky
Michael: Aside from a pair of pick six interceptions in the Tennessee game, Kentucky has really struggled this season and with its offense having its worst showing in years, getting a rested Georgia defense coming off a loss to Alabama makes for a nightmare scenario for the Wildcats. Sending prayers to Joey Gatewood in what looks to be his first start for Kentucky, better days are coming for the Wildcat signal-caller. Look for Stetson Bennett to have a big game after being called out daily by many members of Dawg Nation. He isn’t the problem in Athens and he’ll put that on display on Saturday.
Georgia 27 Kentucky 10
Chris: Excuse my language, but how in the actual **** was Kentucky’s offense more dynamic a year ago with a WR at QB than their current offense is in 2020? UGA is a 2 TD favorite over the Cats despite the fact that Kentucky is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games at home. Three things I don’t trust in this world: my fiance being fine when she says she’s “fine”, people that say they like yellow starbursts, and Kirby Smart making the right decision with his quarterbacks.
Here’s to hoping Kirby has figured out the right choice under center by Saturday. Or, that he at least dresses up like someone who has this Halloween.
Georgia 28 Kentucky 3
LSU (-3) at Auburn
Michael: This game really could go either way, as there’s no way to know which LSU team will show up on Saturday. Half the time, Ed Orgeron’s team looks like an SEC contenders, while the rest of the time they look like the worst team in the West. You could almost say the same thing about Bo Nix, minus the contender part. Did Auburn figure something out last week against Ole Miss or is the Rebel defense just that bad? My score prediction should clue you in to which way I’m leaning. With all the offensive standouts in this game (Tank Bigsby, Seth Williams, Terrace Marshall, Arik Gilbert), we should be in for a fun one on The Plains.
LSU 38 Auburn 31
Chris: They call this the “Tiger Bowl”, but only because the “Which underachieving coordinator should be fired first bowl” is too long. A week ago I said Tank Bigsby was going to save Chad Morris’ job, and I feel like that was going to be correct until the SEC Officials went ahead and did it for him.
TJ Finley looked outstanding for LSU last week, but how does that look on the road against a Kevin Steele defense? My guess: different at the very least. Vegas set the bait, I mean line, in Auburn’s favor on Sunday at Auburn -2 and bettors bit. HARD. So many people bet on LSU that the line swung 5 points to LSU -3. Wow.
I don’t care what the line is. Until SEC officials can prove to everyone that they aren’t going to allow Auburn to win on some absolutely absurdly blind miracle, I’m taking Auburn. Also, fun drinking game for this one: Take a drink every time an Auburn fan brings up the fact that they only allowed 20 points to LSU last year and/or everytime a fan of any other team brings up the fact that they should be 1-4. You’ll be blackout by kickoff.
Auburn 30.5 (don’t worry the officials will allow it) LSU 30
Ole Miss (-16.5) at Vanderbilt
Michael: I’m sure this pick is going to be ridiculed to no end if I’m wrong but there should be a few factors that play to Vanderbilt’s advantage in this game. Ole Miss has been turning the ball over at an alarming rate in recent weeks and now has to deal with losing a tough game that should have been a win. Some teams get over those things better than most but considering how young the Rebels are, and the fact Lane Kiffin was still talking about the end of the Auburn game into Wednesday, there’s an excellent chance last week lingers into this week’s preparation for the Commodores. Vanderbilt also has the advantage of just coming out of an in-season training camp period, which could help the result on the field come Saturday. After getting a few weeks to rest and work on itself, Vanderbilt comes out and shocks the world on Saturday in Nashville.
Vanderbilt 24 Ole Miss 23
Chris: You know what’s scarier than any Michael Myers film, or any over the top costume you’ll see this weekend in the cul de sac? Lane Kiffin with a point to prove. Imagine how pissed he’s gonna be after paying $25k out of his own pocket for being right about the Auburn game last weekend. In my opinion Lane has had a point to prove twice this season: the opener vs Florida in his 1st game back as an SEC head coach, and against his former boss NIck Saban.
I’m not saying he wasn’t trying in the other games at all. But, I am saying Lane Kiffin is a big enough a-hole and a brilliant enough offensive mind (when he wants it to be) to make 60 minutes of football absolutely miserable if you’re on the opposing sidelines. He’ll want it to be miserable this Saturday for Vandy to stick it to the SEC and the refs.
Ole Miss 51 Vanderbilt 17
Mississippi State at Alabama (-30.5)
Michael: Things are bad right now in Starkville, and they may get worse before they get better, but this spread is incredible considering the hype Mike Leach’s Air Raid offense received just a few weeks ago. Even with the possibility of the Bulldogs starting a true freshman on the road in this game, giving Will Rogers an opportunity to play for four quarters appears like the best option at this point. The way K.J. Costello is playing, he’s doing more harm than good at the moment. At this point, what’s there to say about Alabama that hasn’t already been said? The biggest question I have for the Tide at the moment is the team’s pass defense, which is still far from where Nick Saban wants that unit to be. Will Alabama drop eight defenders into zone like recent Mississippi State opponents have been doing to much success? That’s not the way the Crimson Tide operate but they would be wise not to mess with what’s been working against the Air Raid. For some reason, I keep betting against Alabama to cover the spread and losing, so why change now? Alabama rolls but they don’t cover the spread this weekend.
Alabama 45 Mississippi State 17
Chris: Alright we are at the halfway point of the season, so how bad have things gotten in Starkville? Milli Vanilli, the Macarena, and hell even that weird emo looking version of Garth Brooks (Chris Gaines?) were all less of one-hit wonders than the Air Raid offense has been in the SEC. But a 30+ point spread? Surely Mike Leach can take a bye week to figure things outright?
Wrong. A mass exodus of players including the loss of their best player Kylin Hill is not a great look. Neither is the fact that Mike Leach was just 5-10 at Wazzu when coming off a bye week.
Alabama 44 Mississippi State 10
Arkansas at Texas A&M (-12)
Michael: Despite what the spread is in this matchup, the showdown in College Station could be the most entertaining game of the weekend in the SEC. This game is likely going to come down to how well the Arkansas defense can match up with Texas A&M’s impressive running attack, featuring one of the league’s most improved offensive lines and a two-headed monster at running back. One thing that is being overlooked when it comes to the Razorbacks’ impressive showing so far this season is the fact the running back, as more specifically Rakeem Boyd, have yet to get going this season. That’s held back the Arkansas offense but the former Aggie has had several weeks to rest up and if he has his best performance to date on Saturday, Arkansas will win this game. Don’t let their current rankings fool you, these teams are closer than most realize, they should both be ranked in the top 15.
Arkansas 27 Texas A&M 24
Chris: In the beginning of the year I said Arkansas was going to be much better than people gave them credit for. I said they’d win 3-4 games at least, and was mocked by pretty much everyone.
…
…
This is me waiting for y’all to give me credit in the comment section since it’s pretty much the only thing I’ve been right about this year. All jokes aside, this Arkansas team has been a lot of fun to watch this year, and they seemingly ALWAYS play A&M close.
However, I’m hopping off the Pittman bandwagon for this week because I have to think that with: 4 games of tape, countless shoutouts for the Hogs from the national media, AND a week off to prepare A&M is not going to overlook Arkansas. The biggest reason I’m going with the Aggies is how much better they, and especially Kellen Mond, play at home versus the road. I like A&M, and I like A&M big.
Texas A&M 34 Arkansas 13
Missouri at Florida (-13)
Michael: This could be the most unpredictable game of the weekend as we won’t even know which Gators will be available to suit up this weekend. Normally, I’d ride with Kyle Trask, Kyle Pitts and the rest of the gang to have their way with Missouri’s defense but the Tigers are on a hot streak while the Gators are coming off a two week stoppage. How will that affect the game? Will it affect the game? It’s impossible to say but the way Florida’s defense has been playing this season and Mizzou’s ability to adapt its offensive gameplan to suit it’s opponent, I’m going to with the Tigers to cover. I wouldn’t be stunned if they win outright if Florida has to play with a depleted roster.
Florida 33 Missouri 24
Chris: It’s 2020, and I really hope that one day, as SEC fans, our trash talk will be better online and won’t swim in the shallow end of intelligent humor by making Incest jokes at Bama fans and jort jokes to Florida fans. I also hope that means we stop making jokes about Mizzou belonging in the SEC because fun fact…MIZZOU HAS A 4-4 RECORD AGAINST FLORIDA SINCE THEY JOINED THE LEAGUE.
I don’t want to hear another thing from Florida fans online until they’re at least above .500 against Mizzou.
As far as this game goes, I’m taking Florida to win because I would assume, and Mullen better pray, that Todd Grantham got his (blank) together during this extra long bye week(s). That being said, Mizzou is 3-1 ATS and is creative enough on offense to make it a long day for a below average UF defense. Take Florida, but not by much.
Florida 37 Missouri 27
Georgia–31, Kentucky–10
LSU–27, Auburn–24
Ole Miss–48, Vandy–20
Alabama–52, Miss St–7
Arkansas–28, Texas A&M–23
Florida–34, Missouri–14
Georgia–42, Kentucky–3
LSU–34, Auburn–21
Ole Miss–49, Vandy–7
Alabama–42, Miss St–7
Arkansas–24, Texas A&M–21
Florida–28, Missouri–34
MIZ
Wow! Being a homerism by a lot! Why you really like Arkansas to beat Texas A&M? I go with what I see it as a Texas A&M win over Arkansas!
You’re and absolute Arkansas hater! This is the second post that you’ve hated on Arkansas. Why don’t you talk about Mizzou and their game? And how they are going to get spanked by them Gators!
I do think the game will go to Florida. The problem is Florida hasn’t played the last 2 weeks. and it is hard to know what the outcome will be.
Texas A&M is going to struggle. I think it’s a low scoring game with Arkansas getting and holding a lead late in the 4th.
Missouri might beat Florida by a wider margin than that, even without Covid. Miss State will 17 against Alabama. LSU and Auburn might be overtime. aTm over-rated, Arkansas over-rated slightly. Push. Vandy and Ole Miss will be close as well.
So you barely get by an LSU team that’s a shell of itself and beat an offensively challenged UK by 10 and suddenly you’re a top tier SEC program that would beat Florida by a bigger margin than that even without covid? Doesn’t take much to get your confidence through the roof.
Are you really trying to negate the validity of those 2 wins by Missouri? You do realize they were supposed to lose both of those games right. You do realize Florida was supposed to beat A&M right? Seems pretty salty to bash 2 underdog victories while your team is sitting there coming off an upset as a favorite.
I don’t even think us Auburn fans could be that tasteless.
Georgia
LSU
Ole Miss
Alabama
Texas A&M
Florida
Last week I went 3-1 so I’m 23-8 on the season.
Georgia 35, Kentucky 10.
LSU 28, Auburn 21.
Rebearsharks 42, Vandy 28.
Bama 35, State 10.
Game of the week:
Arkansas 28, Aggies 24. Going with the fun pick here because it’s fun.
Florida 38, Mizzou 24.
Alabama only scoring 35? I’m guessing you put that because of Jaylen Waddle being injured.
I think Bama will put up more than 35, but I’d take MSST on the points. Their defense has been pretty good so I don’t see Bama winning this by 30
State has one of the better defenses in the SEC. A lot of the points scored on the Dogs this year has come directly after turnovers.
I think 35 points is a little low for Alabama. State’s defense has been a silver lining this season. But they aren’t Georgia good. And I’m not sure how their offense stays on the field for long stretches. If you’re playing Bama, the game plan should focus on limiting their possessions and clock control. An air raid offense is the opposite of a clock control offense. Not only that, I believe their offense gives Bama’s defense a couple of scoring opportunities. I foresee lots of backups getting reps.
56-13 Bama
Agreed. A lot of 3 and outs coming for State’s offense. That won’t be good for their defense as the game goes on.
Ehh, yeah maybe.
Georgia–27, Kentucky–21
Auburn—38, LSU—35
Ole Miss–42, Vandy–21
Alabama–48, Miss St–21
Arkansas–21, Texas A&M–17
Missouri—31, Florida—28
No way Kentucky gets 3 touchdowns on UGA.
I don’t think they will offensively either.
Alabama showed that Georgia’s defense is not all that!
Beg to differ, BAMA has a great offense, Dawgs do not. No def can stay on the field w/o help from their off against Bama. Maybe someone should tell Kirby, or not.
Have to agree with Hillbilly. Georgia’s defense is still the best and Kentucky won’t have many chances against them. I just think Kentucky will find the end zone early once and perhaps one more late in the game. I can also see the Kentucky defense getting a takeaway from UGA for a TD or a forced fumble that puts them in a scoring position.
That’s my reasoning for Kentucky’s 21
9 safeties and a field goal, maybe?
What about 9 fumble recoveries resulting in 7 FGs? lol
The only reason I put Missouri over Florida is we don’t know who Florida will have for Saturday and they’ve missed 2 weeks of practice and Missouri is fired up looking to make statements I feel.
Agree. I think Mizzou beats Florida.
Sorry but Auburn 30.5 points thanks to the SEC refs has got to be the comment of the season so far.
Yes, hilarious!
Agree, although I am one of those “we got hosed by the officials” Razorback fans.
I think Mizzou has a pretty decent chance to win outright. I wouldn’t favor them but I got odds at +375 yesterday which I’ll take all day. Also, watch out for Kentucky to play Georgia tough because they are stupid like that.
UGA vS UK. I had a weird dream about this game the other night. UK was up 14 to 0 in the 4th and UGA came back and took it to OT where they won 17 to 14. So ill just assume I’m clairvoyant, 17 to 14 dawgs.
Bama 59 Miss st 31
TAMU 24 Arky 17
Ole Miss 52 Vandy 17
LSU 38 Auburn 24
Florida 41 or 63 Mizzou 24 or 45
Dude I would be overjoyed if State scored that much regardless of what the final score is lmao
I don’t see how Florida will put up 41, much less 63, having missed 2 weeks of practice while we have no idea who will be playing this game. Just my take. Of all the games this week, this one screams TRAP more than any.
People keep underestimating this Bama defense for the Ole Miss debacle. Do so at your own risk. A&M, Georgia, Kentucky, and Tennessee have the best OLs in the SEC other than Bama. TN’s and KY’s haven’t played like it but the talent is there. Bama has played three of those teams and have given up 21.6 ppg against them. State’s OL is NOT good. Unless some of those scores come from the defense, State isn’t scoring 31 points against Bama’s D.
Also, I’m surprised I haven’t seen a Mizzou fan arguing that there’s no way Florida will score that many when Bama only scored 38. It’s like they forget that game was over quick and Bama’s backups got more playing time in it than in all the other games. But, it’s Mizzou. Let ’em hang their hats on something, even if it’s a fallacy.
Bazelak wasn’t the starter and that changed when Bazelak took over later. That is also something you didn’t count on that the quarterback wasn’t ready and might not be as good as Bazelak. zhuge difference here.
Must have been the same dream where “Third and Grantham” was actually a thing.
Okay, Chris, here’s your kudos. I’ve watched the Arky D and they swarm to the ball so fast they need to give up the Hogs mascot and become Hornets! Plus I see Mond as nothing but average. At best. The moment may become too big for them but I see Arky celebrating in the Lone Star State.
With all this talk about the SEC refs giving games to Auburn does anyone besides me remember the LSU game a few years ago where replay took an LSU off the scoreboard and gave the EagleTigers a reason to toss toilet paper? Don’t get mad at me Bengal fans but rolling into Jordan-Hare may bring on another one of those ‘how the hell did that happen’ moments.
Personally, I think this will come down to a FG at the end. I believe Tank is gonna gash LSUs front, forcing LSU to open Seth up in 1on1s. I’m just hoping this one doesn’t end with a questionable call.
The Sankey excuses are raw, stupid and shameless. Just fire some of the crews and find some competent officials. The ones we have cant even review a recording and figure it out. When you dont know what a fumble is, when you cant look at a replay and see the touch before the ball is covered by the kicking team, we dont need excuses and lies…the firings start with sending Sankey back to the Southland Conference. Being dishonest is not a virtue…Sankey.
I get it, Auburn has had fortunate officiating but they’ve also been wronged by officials, just nowhere near as bad. My point is this is not synonymous with Auburn fortune. It’s infecting the entire SEC. For example, can anyone tell me with a straight face that that wasn’t targeting in the beginning of the Bama-Tenn game? Was ruled on the field as targeting, replay clearly showed it was targeting, officials reverse the call.
They didn’t get the snap off.. cry.
Look at all these predictions. Gotta find something worth reading.
Georgia-35 Kentucky-13
LSU-31 Auburn-21
Ole Miss-45 Vandy-17
Alabama-49 MSU-10
Arkansas-24 TAMU-21
Florida-42 Missouri-38 (I don’t trust Todd Grantham to fix our defense, this should be a shootout that goes either way)
The Mizzou/UF game is not really predictable. We have no idea who will be playing. If UF has a significant majority of its starters and key reserves available, they’re a clear favorite, though Mizzou still has a shot. But the safe money is on UF by 7-10.
If they roll out a rag-tag roster missing 8 starters? Missouri might win by 3 TDs
Am I the only one confused about these ARK over A&M picks? I get it, they’re much improved and they did get screwed over by the refs, but they just don’t have the talent of A&M. Plus it’s at Kyle. The stat breakdown just doesn’t favor ARK and Vegas usually has a good pulse on things.
Its hard to disagree with you CaptnDud. Arkansas has been swarming on defense and playing with a bunch of heart, but physics is physics. We will have a hard time matching A&M in the trenches and won’t be able to rely on getting a bunch of turnovers. I hope Arkansas is able to snap the streak this weekend, but I also try not to see it through Cardinal Red colored glasses. We will have to improve our offensive efficiency greatly to have a shot at winning Saturday.
On the other hand, Arkansas has proven Vegas wrong in every game this year. Why not keep the trend going?
I do think it will be more of a lower scoring game with both teams trying to control the ball. ARK has been getting a lot of INTs and we all know Mond can be problematic, so I think A&M will try and keep it on the ground. Good thing is that we have an experienced OL, two very good backs, and ARK has given up around 250 yards on the ground the last two games.
I am interested in seeing the Ark offence vs A&M defense matchup. Not a lot of people are talking about that. It’ll be interesting to see if Franks can do anything against out bad secondary.
No, you’re not the only one. It seems Arkansas is a trendy pick these days, people pulling for the underdog. But they don’t have the talent A&M has.
I understand that, but at some points logic has to kick in. A&M’s offensive strength this year is the run game. Ark has given up 250 on the ground each of the last two games. It’s at Kyle so we get Kyle Field Mond (statistically way better). Talent levels. Ark has 7 turnovers against Ole Miss and could only muster 20 points (14 points came off of pix 6s).
Personally, I think A&M is a little overrated because of the Florida win. Pretty sure that had more to do with Florida having a terrible defense more so than A&M having a good offense. I’m betting A&M goes back to struggling against a good defense which Arkansas has.
I’m just confused all around by posts on this article – Arky is 9th in the SEC in total D, and 60th overall, A&M is 3rd and 29th respectively, and that’s against the top to offenses. I’m not understanding why others are picking Arky or have much confidence really. Not that they shouldn’t be pleased with their production so far.
Hey I sympathize, I mean I picked A&M to upset Florida because I knew Florida was overrated because their defense was trash so I saw that coming a mile away. I also picked Arkansas to upset Ole Miss for the same reason. I just don’t believe A&M is as good as their record would suggest, kind of like Auburn. I can’t explain it with analytics because I’m going off what I see and I haven’t seen anything from A&M that can be classified as anything but average at best. With Arkansas, I at least see their defense as being a solid average, maybe approaching above average.
Dude, like for real. I’m reading all this just wondering if anyone has even looks at any stats. I’m a fan of the hogz, I hope they do well, but I’m hard pressed to pick them against us. I not opposed to picking an upset, and sure, I think Arkansas could do it, but I’m not holding my breadth. But then to see the sheer volume of upsets picked, its really got me wondering.
My main reasoning for picking them is that even with Arkansas struggling in recent years, this has always been a close game. I don’t think A&M is that much better than they were last year, and Arkansas is clearly worlds ahead of where they were last year.
But are they “worlds better”? Ole Miss is definitely not good and they turned the ball over 7 times and only lost by 11. I’m not sure about you, but if a team turned the ball over to A&M 7 times, I would expect them to win by more than that. Against AU was their only complete game and they lost (insert refs screwing them here), and against MSST they took the ball away 4 times and only won by a touchdown. They’re the 3rd best team in the west, but most people think this is a normal west year. MSST, AU, LSU, and Ole Miss are all really bad this year. It’s the combination of ARK being better and those other team taking major steps back.
A&M on the other hand has a great OL for the first time in a while, a solid run game and a stout run D. Also, comparing past games have little to no bearing on current teams. Drastic changes happen to NCAA teams from year to year, Example LSU the last three years.
CaptnDud Arkansas has yet to play a complete game. Specials teams are horrible and offense hasn’t meshed yet. If you take away blocked punts for TD’s Arkansas hasn’t given up more than 30 points on Defense yet.
Will be fun to see how Odom has the D prepared for Saturday.
chasegal88: UGA racked up 290 yards of offense and 32 points in the second half. MSST dominated that defense, 400 yards, +13 min TOP, threw for 300. Ole Miss and AU both ran for over 240 yards, ARK is giving up an average of 350 yrd a game on defense (ranked 11th in the SEC), 9th in the SEC in passing defense and SECOND TO THE LAST in run defense. So I have NO idea where y’all are getting this “Good Defense” idea from
Sorry those second stats where the offense (which is just at bad). Still ranked 9th in total defense (420 a game), 5th in passing and 11th in rushing. Still not good.
I think A&M will always be easy to bet against until they prove that they know how to win the games they should win – Vanderbilt- without getting in their own way. All part of developing a winning culture.
The only team that can beat the Aggies on Saturday is the Aggies. Play ball control. Limit turnovers and stupid penalties. Aggies will grind Arky down and win convincingly.
Agreed, I don’t see this as a blow out game but I also don’t see this as a close game either. Similar to MSST, the score will not tell the whole story if A&M plays the way they should. Ark is a much improved team and will definitely will not be a pushover, but just like a heavyweight fighter leaning on their opponent, A&M should wear them down and win comfortably.
I see the resident moron Chris doesn’t pay attention to the multitude of reports suggesting JT Daniels is not back at 100%.
You really think Kirby is going out of his way to start the guy he let go JUCO for a year and who Monken met with this spring to inform him there simply weren’t enough reps for him to have a realistic shot? Stetson’s risky throwing style probably drives Kirby up the wall. If he wasn’t the best option available, he wouldn’t be starting. Blame Newman for making a business decision or Daniels for not recovering from ACL surgery and a follow up procedure in 12 months.
Funniest betting line of the week:
O/U on Tank Bigsby broken tackles vs Points scored by Kentucky
I’m taking the over +3 lol
UGA vs UK: Cats will play better than last week but dogs have too much talent. UGA 27 UK 17
LSU vs Aub— Tiger Bowl: Key for LSU is to slow Tank B and force Aub to throw….then minimize the busted plays in the secondary. Don’t think Aub can keep up if LSU gets a lead. LSU 38 Aub 27
Ole Miss bs Vandy: Poor Vandy. Rebs 34 Vandy 20
Miss ST vs Bama: Bama dominates in a blowout. ST won’t win another gm this yr til Vandy. Tide 56 ST 13
Arky vs A&M: Aggies will lose 2 more gms. One from group of Arky, SC and UT. Second from Aub, LSU. Not this week though. Arky 23 A&M 31
Mizzou vs UF: Mizzou has played Gators close. Wouldn’t be surprised if they win but I’ll take the Gators in a shootout.. Mizzou 38 IF 46