SEC post-New Year's bowl win probabilities
Below is a list of win probabilities for the five SEC teams playing in bowl games on or after New Year’s Day. Those win probabilities are according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
What is your team’s win probability this bowl season? Take a look.
- Alabama (58.5 percent): The popular opinion regarding Alabama’s playoff matchup with Ohio State is that ‘Bama will win with ease, but remarkably the Crimson Tide has the worst win probability of the five SEC teams in post-New Year’s bowl this season. Alabama is still favored against Ohio State and third-string quarterback Cardale Jones, but it appears the FPI has more respect for OSU than most fans do. Still, the expectation remains that after a month of preparation the No. 1 team in the country will take care of business and advance to the SEC’s ninth consecutive national title game appearance.
- Auburn (67.5 percent): Gus Malzahn’s dynamic spread rushing attack will be put to the test in this year’s Outback Bowl against Wisconsin and the FBS’s leading rusher in Melvin Gordon. The FPI gives the Tigers 2-1 odds to win this game, and if the same Auburn defense that ranked 44th out of 128 FBS teams against the run can rise to the challenge, it should win this game. However, Auburn allowed at least 176 rushing yards in each of its four losses, and at least 220 yards in three of those four defeats. If Gordon wins his matchup with the Tigers defense, the Badgers could be on their way to victory.
- Florida (75.0 percent): In a zany turn of events, Florida has the SEC’s highest post-New Year’s win probability according to the FPI, while Alabama has the lowest likelihood of victory. The Gators have endured coaching changes, early NFL Draft declarations and a media circus in recent weeks, but they also face the SEC’s only bowl opponent from outside the power five conferences. East Carolina’s spread pass attack amassed more than 4,400 yards through the air this year, but UF’s secondary ranked 22nd in the nation in pass defense. The winner of that matchup will likely win the SEC’s final bowl game of the season on Jan. 3 (unless Alabama wins and advances to the national title game on Jan. 12).
- Missouri (60.0 percent): The Tigers’ Citrus Bowl showdown with Minnesota has been somewhat lost in the New Year’s shuffle in relation to the New Year’s Six bowl games, but this game between two ranked teams is still one of the more compelling matchups of the SEC’s bowl season. Both teams ranked outside the top 100 in the nation in total offense in 2014, but both possess menacing defenses that fans of old-school football can appreciate. The FPI gives the Tigers a 60 percent chance at victory, and if their stout defensive line can limit the Gophers rushing attack Mizzou should be in good shape.
- Tennessee (66.1 percent): The Volunteers won three of their last four games in the regular season to earn bowl eligibility for the first time since 2010, and most of the team will be playing in its first bowl game when UT meets Iowa in the TaxSlayer Bowl. The Hawkeyes are 3-2 in bowl games against the SEC since 2003, and they possess one of the more capable offensive lines in the country this season. However, Tennessee’s defensive front was among the most aggressive in the SEC in 2014, and whichever team wins the battle in the trenches should hold an edge in this matchup.