Week 9 win probability for every SEC team
What is your team’s win probability this week? Below is a list of every SEC team’s win probability for Week 9, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index.
- Alabama (82.1 percent): The Crimson Tide are coming off the most impressive win in the SEC this season, a 59-0 shellacking of Texas A&M in Tuscaloosa last weekend. The Tide will now face the SEC’s worst offensive line in Tennessee, which may be without starting quarterback Justin Worley. If anything, it’s a surprise the Tide’s win probability isn’t higher.
- Arkansas (93.5 percent): Arkansas has now lost three straight games in SEC West play, and welcomes a week outside the SEC as it prepares for a showdown with UAB. The Razorbacks won their previous three non-conference games by wide margins, but UAB played No. 1 Mississippi State tough earlier this year, losing by just 13 points in Starkville.
- Auburn (88.5 percent): Auburn was able to rest during last week’s bye, and it returns to action this weekend with the second highest odds of any SEC team facing a fellow SEC opponent. This weekend’s game with South Carolina was touted as one of the best games on the conference schedule in the preseason, but with South Carolina’s suspect defense it now appears to be a lopsided matchup favoring the defending conference champs.
- Kentucky (17.6 percent): The Wildcats are coming off a 41-3 beatdown in Baton Rouge, and now must host No. 1 Mississippi State in the CBS SEC Game of the Week. It seems the FPI still has some respect for UK after last week’s loss, giving the Cats a better than 17 percent chance at scoring the biggest upset in the SEC this season.
- LSU (43.1 percent): The Tigers are getting hot at the right time, but they’ll be tested by No. 3 Ole Miss on Saturday. The Rebels are not that far ahead of the Tigers, and in a night game in Death Valley, anything is possible. The game feels like a toss-up, and the FPI seems to agree, giving the Tigers a 43 percent shot at handing Ole Miss its first loss of the year.
- Mississippi (56.9 percent): The Rebels started slow in last week’s win over Tennessee, but that didn’t stop them from running up a 31-point margin of victory at home. Now they must travel to Death Valley for a difficult road test against LSU. Ole Miss has the nation’s No. 1 scoring defense, and it’ll need to limit the LSU rushing attack in order to stay unbeaten.
- Mississippi State (82.4 percent): The Bulldogs have had two weeks to rest for this week’s game against Kentucky, and considering the Cats rank in the bottom half of the conference in rushing defense, this should be a favorable matchup for MSU. The Bulldogs will once again play on a national stage, allowing Dak Prescott another opportunity to advance his emerging Heisman campaign.
- Missouri (90.7 percent): Missouri plays Vanderbilt this weekend, so it’s surprising the FPI only gives the Tigers a 90 percent chance of winning this game. Mizzou was sloppy in a 29-point win in the Swamp last week, but it has plenty of margin for error in facing the Commodores and first-time starting quarterback Johnny McCrary.
- South Carolina (11.5 percent): The Gamecocks got some of their swagger back in a 41-10 win over Furman last week, but they still haven’t found any answers along the defensive front. South Carolina does not matchup well with Auburn’s spread rushing attack, resulting in just an 11 percent chance of an upset according to the FPI.
- Tennessee (17.9 percent): Tennessee has allowed more sacks and tackles for loss than any other team in the SEC, and by a wide margin. It’s surprising the Vols were given a nearly 18 percent shot at winning according to the FPI, especially against an Alabama defense coming off a shutout of the SEC’s top-rated offense in Texas A&M.
- Vanderbilt (9.3 percent): The Commodores have had two weeks to rest for this weekend’s game against Missouri, but the FPI doesn’t seem to think that rest will help. The ‘Dores are giving McCrary his first career start, and the Tigers’ defensive end tandem of Shane Ray and Markus Golden will be looking to give him nightmares in Saturday’s action.
Note: Florida, Georgia and Texas A&M all have open dates this week.
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