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Tennessee vs. Georgia is a matchup between 2 teams desperate to make an impression on the College Football Playoff selection committee.
The Bulldogs already have 2 losses this season and are currently on the outside-looking-in of the Playoff picture. Tennessee, on the other hand, only has 1 loss but may still need a win on Saturday in order to secure a spot in the 12-team field.
Let’s take a look at some historical betting trends, advanced stats and some other useful info about these teams:
Tennessee vs. Georgia betting lines
Lines via DraftKings:
Spread: Tennessee +9.5 (-110) | Georgia -9.5 (-110)
Total: Over 47 (-110) | Under 47 (-110)
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Betting trends to know for Tennessee
Tennessee is…
- 5-4 against the spread in 2024
- 1-6 against the spread as an underdog of 7+ points during the Josh Heupel era
- 6-8 against the spread in SEC road games under Josh Heupel
Betting trends to know for Georgia
Georgia is…
- 2-7 against the spread in 2024
- 17-21-1 against the spread as home favorite of 7+ points in the Kirby Smart era
- 15-15 against the spread in home SEC games in the Kirby Smart era
Advanced Stats preview
Success rate will be the most important stat referenced in this section. Whether or not a play is “successful” depends on the down and distance of a given play. Here’s a breakdown of how much yardage is necessary for a play to be deemed “successful” depending on the context:
- 1st down: Teams must gain at least 50% of required yardage
- 2nd down: Teams must gain at least 70% of required yardage
- 3rd or 4th down: Teams must gain 100% of required yardage
Defensively, numbers are presented as what the defense allowed the offense to achieve. So on defense, a 35% success rate is better than a 40% success rate.
Let’s dig into what success rate says about this matchup:
Rushing success rate
- Tennessee rushing offense success rate: 44.6%
- Georgia rushing defense success rate: 34.9%
Tennessee’s rushing offense has been carrying a heavy burden this season. With their passing attack not what they expected it to be, the Vols have relied on running back Dylan Sampson to generate points. Sampson leads the SEC with 20 rushing touchdowns and is averaging over 5.5 yards per carry despite facing increasingly-stacked boxes from SEC defenses. Despite Sampson generating plenty of headlines, however, this is not a very efficient part of Tennessee’s profile. The Vols rank outside the top 100 in rushing EPA per game, according to Game on Paper. A success rate south of 45% is just a little better than mediocre and the Vols aren’t creating a ton of explosive runs, either.
Georgia’s rush defense is solid. The Bulldogs rank 19th nationally in rush defense EPA per play, according to Game on Paper. Georgia has battled some injury issues up front this season, but it appears to be getting healthier. Georgia’s rush defense was a weakness after the first half of the season, but the Bulldogs have kept 3 of their last 4 opponents to 3 yards per play or fewer. Limiting Tennessee’s running game is a big part of this matchup, and UGA seems equipped to do so.
- Georgia rushing offense success rate: 45.9%
- Tennessee rushing defense success rate: 34.2%
Georgia has had a solid season running the ball, but the Bulldogs won’t be 100% this weekend when they host the Vols. Trevor Etienne and a couple other running backs have already been ruled out for this weekend due to injury, while Cash Jones is questionable. That leaves freshman running back Nate Frazier as Georgia’s top option on the ground this weekend. However, Frazier has not been Georgia’s most efficient running back this season. He has an individual rushing success rate of 38% so far this year, per Game on Paper. Frazier is also coming off of a game in-which he fumbled vs. Ole Miss last weekend. This is a significant question mark going into a game where the Bulldogs are facing one of the nation’s best run defenses.
Tennessee’s rush defense is one of the very best in the country. A sub-35% success rate is something only the top teams in the country can claim, especially this late in the season. That mark ranks 5th nationally entering Week 12 and 2nd in the SEC behind only Oklahoma. However, it’s worth noting that Tennessee has slipped a little bit in this regard over the past couple of weeks. In wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State, the Vols posted a rush defense success rate of 40.6%. That’s not a disaster by any means, but it’s not elite either.
Passing success rate
- Tennessee passing offense success rate: 47.7%
- Georgia passing defense success rate: 36%
Tennessee’s passing attack has been a relative disappointment this season, but the Vols do have a respectable passing success rate of almost 48% on the year. The issue has been a lack of explosive plays. Tennessee has managed just 17 passing plays of 20+ yards in SEC play this season, which ranks 13th in the conference. It’s also worth noting that Nico Iamaleava may not be 100% healthy for this game after missing the second half vs. Mississippi State due to a concussion.
Georgia’s secondary has been solid so far this season. However, it was a relatively big issue in the loss to Ole Miss last weekend. Georgia allowed nearly 10 yards per attempt through the air in a 28-10 loss to the Rebels. In its prior game against a top opponent, though, Georgia limited Texas to just 230 passing yards on 49 attempts. The lack of consistency has been apparent at times this season (Georgia is 8th in the SEC in pass defense efficiency), but the upside for this secondary remains exceptionally high.
- Georgia passing offense success rate: 45.7%
- Tennessee passing defense success rate: 35.6%
For Georgia, its passing game has easily been the most disappointing part of the 2024 season for the Bulldogs. Carson Beck has been largely dreadful this season, particularly in SEC play. He’s already thrown 12 interceptions to SEC defenses this year, which is 4 more than any other quarterback entering Week 12. Georgia’s offense has averaged fewer than 5 yards per play in 3 separate games already this season. That didn’t happen a single time in 2023 when Beck was also the quarterback.
Tennessee’s pass defense is elite. The Vols are even better from an EPA perspective than they are in success rate. Per Game on Paper, Tennessee ranks 6th nationally in EPA-per-play pass defense. Tennessee has done an excellent job of limiting explosive passing plays this year. The Vols have only permitted 19 passes of 20+ yards so far this year, which is the third-best mark in the SEC. Tennessee is also first in the SEC in third-down conversion rate defense at just 24.19%.
1 other key: Will Georgia’s offense be able to move the ball?
Georgia is worse than it was a year ago on both sides of the ball. That much is clear entering Week 12. But the drop-off has been much more severe on offense. The question now becomes: how will the Bulldogs respond when they’re met with possibly the best defense in the country?
Georgia fans may find some optimism if they go looking for Carson Beck’s home/road splits. Beck has been a much, much better quarterback this season at home than he has been on the road. He has a 10-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio so far this season when playing in Athens. Compare that to a 3-to-7 ratio when playing on the road and 4-to-3 in a couple of neutral-site games.
Of course, you could chalk that up to Georgia’s competition at home so far this season. The Bulldogs have played 3 games at home so far this season: Tennessee Tech, Auburn and Mississippi State. This will be the first time UGA is facing a strong team at home this season, so it seems fair to question whether or not Beck’s home/road splits will show up on Saturday vs. the Vols.
There’s also the matter of Georgia’s running game, which has been fine to this point in the season. However, life without Trevor Etienne could be difficult. And more importantly, Tennessee has arguably the best run defense in the country. If Frazier struggles as the lead back, Georgia is going to need Beck’s best performance of the season in order to move the ball consistently on this Vols defense.
Note: All advanced stats mentioned in this story exclude garbage-time statistics and are derived from CollegeFootballData.com unless otherwise noted. Trends are via BetIQ.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
