Breaking down the weekend’s SEC slate, all in one place.

Game of the Week: Ole Miss at Alabama (-7)

The stakes

Not to put too fine a point on it, but Alabama’s 17th SEC opener under Nick Saban feels like a major turning point in his tenure. Is this still Bama as we know it?

The Crimson Tide have reigned over the SEC West for so long now that it’s tempting to dismiss the past 2 games — a 34-24 loss to Texas in Week 2, followed by last week’s uninspired, 17-3 slog at South Florida — as fleeting blips. Saban’s teams have rebounded from regular-season setbacks to win championships before, and the current version remains arguably the most talented roster in America. The Tide still control their fate, and all of their usual goals are still attainable.

But when is the last time those assurances sounded less convincing?

The scoreboard the past 2 weeks speaks for itself. If this outfit had been wearing the uniform of any other school, it would be just ordinary. By Bama standards, it has been unrecognizable. All of the big offseason question marks that followed Bryce Young’s departure for the next level are glowing red: Quarterback is a mess; the skill positions are devoid of difference-makers; the rebuilt o-line has yet to gel into a cohesive unit. After years of cranking out All-Americans and first-rounders at virtually every position, there’s not a single player on the offense the Tide can trust on a weekly basis, least of all behind center. And that’s without getting into the concerns about a defense that was repeatedly torched in the second half by Texas.

The loss to the Longhorns was Alabama’s first nonconference defeat since 2007, Saban’s first season, and the largest margin in defeat in Tuscaloosa since 2004. The win at USF was its lowest-scoring effort against any opponent since 2014. Back-to-back, they represent easily the worst 2-game stretch of the past 15 years.

In the effort to avoid making it 3, the offense is rebooting this week behind quarterback Jalen Milroe, the goat of the Texas loss, who subsequently watched the USF debacle unfold from the sideline; he returned to the starting lineup this week with a firmer grip on the job than he had before. The hope is that Milroe’s obvious talent will outweigh his youthful mistakes, spark the offense and deliver the Tide from their brief funk back into their rightful perch as Playoff contenders. The fear is that an unproven, mistake-prone young QB is actually all they have to hang their hats on.

For Ole Miss, opportunity knocks. Last year, the Rebels blew what looked like their big shot at a breakthrough when an 8-0 start collapsed in a 1-4 finish, including a 30-24 loss to Alabama in Oxford. This year, early nonconference flops by Bama, LSU and Texas A&M have blown the path to the top of the division wide open. On paper, this looks like Lane Kiffin‘s best team yet. On Saturday, it will get its first test of just how much that counts for on the field.

The stat: 46.4%

That’s the percentage of Alabama’s passing snaps the past 2 weeks on which the quarterback has faced some degree of pressure, per Pro Football Focus. Between them, Milroe, Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson were hurried, hit or sacked on 32-of-69 combined drop-backs against Texas and USF, managing to complete just 6 passes under duress for 65 yards. Last week, Simpson alone was pressured on 11-of-15 drop-backs in the second half, resulting in 5 sacks by a USF defense that recorded just 14 sacks over the entire 2022 season.

It’s been a team effort. PFF has assigned responsibility for at least 1 sack to 4 different players, and dinged 3 others for allowing multiple pressures. The most glaring offender, bless his heart, has been true freshman left tackle Kadyn Proctor, a 5-star signee off to an undeniably rough start to his college career with 4 sacks and 9 pressures allowed in his first 3 games. But the vets haven’t exactly been a fortress of solitude, either: Returning starters Darrian Dalcourt (6 pressures), JC Latham (1 sack, 3 pressures) and Seth McLaughlin (3 pressures, plus several errant snaps) have all had their issues, as has 5th-year RB Jase McClellan (2 sacks, 5 pressures allowed in pass pro). And let’s not forget the quarterbacks themselves, especially Milroe, who held onto the ball too long on multiple sacks against Texas.

Ole Miss might not have a single dominant pass rusher, but between seniors Cedric Johnson, Jared Ivey and Isaac Ukwu, the Rebels do have a surplus of draftable vets with experience, and in 5-star freshman Suntarine Perkins, they have what they hope is a rising star. (Kiffin pointed out this week that Perkins is “probably the only player on our roster (Alabama) wanted” as a recruit, which is probably true.) Whether this version of the Crimson Tide is capable of lining up and running the ball right at a baseline SEC defense remains to be seen. If it can’t, though, we’ve already seen more than enough to assume protecting the quarterback on passing downs is going to be an adventure.

The big question: How healthy are Ole Miss’ playmakers?

Junior QB Jaxson Dart is off to a strong start, solidifying his status as QB1 with 3 straight plus performances to open the season. The surrounding cast is much less certain. Last year’s breakout star, sophomore RB Quinshon Judkins, has yet to get untracked, averaging just 3.3 yards per carry (down from 5.7 as a freshman) while dealing with an unspecified injury; he played at significantly less than 100% in last week’s win over Georgia Tech, and is TBD for Saturday.

Meanwhile, Dart’s go-to receiver in the early going, Louisiana Tech transfer Tre Harris, sat out last week after exiting in the Rebels’ win 2 win at Tulane; he’s also questionable to play on Saturday. Two other big-ticket transfers, WR Zakhari Franklin (UTSA) and TE Caden Prieskorn (Memphis), have yet to see the field due to injuries and reportedly remain limited in practice.

The rest of the depth chart thins out fast. At wideout, Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins have moved to the front of the line in Harris’ absence, averaging 19.8 yards on a combined 26 catches. Former SMU transfer and All-Name Team mainstay Ulysses Bentley IV is a viable option behind Judkins. But the only way “viable” is going to get the job done against Alabama is if Dart — currently the team’s leading rusher following a big game against Georgia Tech — plays the game of his life in all facets.

The key matchup: Ole Miss OTs Micah Pettus and Victor Curne vs. Alabama OLBs Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell

For all that went wrong against USF, Turner and Braswell did their part and then some, combining for 21 QB pressures and 5 sacks on a dominant afternoon for the Bama pass rush. That was in stark contrast to the previous outing against Texas, when the Tide barely laid a hand on Quinn Ewers — just 6 pressures on 40 attempts — with predictably flammable results for the secondary.

Ole Miss can’t match Texas’ explosiveness at wideout, but given the chance, Dart’s arm and Kiffin’s play-calling can still inflict serious damage. For their part, Pettus and Curne have held up fine with the arguable exception of a wobbly outing at Tulane, where they allowed a combined 5 pressures and 1 sack. Tulane’s d-line is better than you think; obviously, it’s not Alabama’s. The edge is the one area where the talent gap still looks like the recruiting rankings suggest it’s supposed to look.

The verdict

Rumors of the Tide’s pending demise did not prevent oddsmakers from installing them as 7-point favorites at home, and the line actually ticked up slightly during the week. Ole Miss’ injury situation surely factors into that. The major factor, though, is that people are just not prepared to bet against Alabama.

I don’t blame them. This is an uncertain moment for one of the great dynasties in sports. The tiny, barely visible cracks that have accumulated in the Bama mystique over the past couple of seasons have come very rapidly into view the past 2 weeks. The automatic reverence for the Saban machine, and the shock when it turns out to be manned by mere mortals, has taken a severe hit.

It’s possible for the first time to imagine the Crimson Tide being imminently demoted to the (upper) middle class, and somehow fitting that it would be 2 former Saban protégés, Steve Sarkisian and Lane Kiffin, who were ultimately responsible for pulling the trap door. But to predict it? After all these years, I’m erring on the side of seeing before I believe.
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• Alabama 27 | Ole Miss 24

Arkansas at LSU (-17.5)

Heat check time for LSU’s offense coming off a blistering performance at Mississippi State, and for QB Jayden Daniels, in particular. Daniels was flawless against the Bulldogs, finishing 30-for-34 for 361 yards, and 4-ror-4 on attempts of 20+ yards. Most of that output (including all 4 of the deep shots) came in collaboration with Malik Nabers, who accounted for a career-high 239 yards and both of Daniels’ passing touchdowns. For an offense that generally lacked explosiveness in 2022 — and which still relies on Daniels to shoulder the lion’s share of the ground game — it was like opening the door to a whole new room of the house that had previously been locked. The question now is whether they’re capable of living there.

For Arkansas, the conclusion thus far has been exactly the opposite: The Razorbacks’ best player, All-SEC RB Rocket Sanders, remains in limbo with a sore knee, and in the meantime QB KJ Jefferson has struggled to develop a rapport with anyone in an unproven and mostly anonymous group of wideouts. Sanders is questionable to play in Baton Rouge, likely leaving it up to Jefferson and his receivers again to generate a spark. If they’re still banking on the next Treylon Burks emerging from the pack, or even the next Matt Landers, it’s beginning to look like they’re in for a long wait.
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LSU 37 | • Arkansas 23

Auburn at Texas A&M (-8.5)

It’s hard to know what to expect from Texas A&M, a supremely talented team with high expectations that just happens to be 2-8 in its past 10 games vs. Power 5 opponents. If the refurbished Aggies bandwagon is going to make it out of the driveway, dispatching an decided underdog picked to finish 6th in the division is obviously a minimum requirement. Aside from the connection between ascending QB Conner Weigman and a fine bunch of receivers, the promised progress across the rest of the lineup remains strictly hypothetical.

Speaking of the receivers, Evan Stewart and fellow sophomore Noah Thomas are expected back 0n the field Saturday after sitting out last week’s blowout win over UL-Monroe with minor injuries; in their place, seniors Ainias Smith and Jahdae Walker both went over 100 yards receiving on a combined 19.8 per catch. Add Moose Muhammad to the mix, and the rotation has the potential to be the SEC’s best. For that matter, so does Weigman, who ranks 2nd nationally in Total QBR and acquitted himself respectably in the Aggies’ 44-33 loss at Miami in Week 2. But it’s time for potential to start yielding to some Ws that matter.
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• Texas A&M 31 | Auburn 20

Mississippi State at South Carolina (-6.5)

This one is set for 7 pm ET, which under Shane Beamer has quickly turned into South Carolina’s favorite time slot: Victims of late kicks in Columbia the past 2 years include Auburn, Florida, Tennessee and Texas A&M, all of them upsets in front of a raucous crowd. This time, Carolina is favored for a change — partly because bettors know a pattern when they see one, and in much larger part because Mississippi State’s post-Air Raid offense looked dead on arrival in last week’s conference opener against LSU. Mid-September might seem a little early for urgency, but both teams are 0-1 in SEC play and badly in need of some reassurance they’re not embarking down the darkest timeline. For the side that drops to 0-2, the forecast is bleak.
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• South Carolina 27 | Mississippi State 19

UT-San Antonio at Tennessee (-21.5)

A month ago, this looked like an intriguing upset bid from an ascendant Group of 5 outfit that expected to arrive in Knoxville 3-0. Now that it’s actually here, not so much. UTSA is off to a disappointing start, with losses to Houston and Army bookending a close call against Texas State. Worse, the Roadrunners are sweating out the status of face-of-the-program QB Frank Harris, who sat out last week’s loss to Army with a bout of turf toe; he’s reportedly a game-time decision Saturday. Even before the injury, the offense looked like a pale imitation of the attack that averaged 36.8 points over the previous 2 seasons. Combine that with Tennessee’s deflating loss at Florida, and neither side is coming in with nearly the juice it had hoped.
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• Tennessee 44 | UTSA 16

UAB at Georgia (-42.5)

UAB coach Trent Dilfer told reporters this week that a night game in a big SEC stadium is a “a way better atmosphere than a Super Bowl,” which, yeah. No one denies this. The Super Bowl is an explicitly made-for-TV event held at a neutral site with a notoriously corporate crowd that’s there mostly just so they can say they were there — a low bar, atmosphere-wise. Whereas an SEC night game in Athens, Ga., is liquored-up local pageantry at its finest on a huge, hostile scale. No comparison. Dilfer also added that the only SEC game he’s actually attended, an Ole Miss-Alabama game in Tuscaloosa on a recruiting trip with his daughter, was the “second coolest thing I’ve ever been to as a spectator,” trailing only the, uh, Kentucky Derby? (Liquored-up local pageantry with a notoriously corporate crowd plus horses.) Something tells me the experience of being on the visitor’s sideline with a below-average AAC squad is going to rank significantly further down the list.
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Georgia 48 | • UAB 9

Memphis at Missouri (-6.5)

Missouri is on letdown watch this week coming off the biggest (and most dramatic) win of Eli Drinkwitz‘s tenure, a 30-27 nail-biter against Kansas State decided on a historic walk-off, 61-yard field goal as time expired. Drama aside, the upset was also a national coming-out party for QB Brady Cook, who played the best game of his career against the Wildcats, and WR Luther Burden III, whose 114-yard, 2-touchdown performance signaled his arrival as a full-blown star. Memphis, 3-0 with wins over Bethune-Cookman, Arkansas State and Navy, is a wild card. But take care of business this week, with Vanderbilt on deck, and Mizzou has a direct path to 5-0 and a likely national ranking heading into its next big test, a Week 6 visit from LSU.
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• Missouri 34 | Memphis 24

Kentucky (-13.5) at Vanderbilt

Last year, the Wildcats were ambush victims in Vandy’s first SEC win in more than 3 years — the nadir for a UK team that at one point rose as high as No. 8 in the AP poll before hitting the skids. This year, they’re just trying to get to 4-0 with a minimum of drama before the schedule starts to pick up steam. Keep an eye on Kentucky’s pace on offense: Through 3 games the Cats are averaging just 53.7 snaps, fewest of any Power 5 team.
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Kentucky 29 | • Vanderbilt 17

Charlotte at Florida (-27.5)

In Charlotte’s first 8 years as an FBS program, it managed just 24 wins over FBS opponents, only 1 of them (a 2021 upset over Duke) against a Power 5 team. In Year 9, the 49ers are resetting under first-year head coach Biff Poggi, a former hedge fund manager turned longtime high school coach in Baltimore, Md., who made the leap to the college ranks at age 61, in an off-field role at Michigan. (His official title on Jim Harbaugh’s staff was associate head coach; his role has been described as “consigliere.”)

Two years in Ann Arbor led to the Charlotte gig, where the cigar-chomping Poggi was immediately anointed as the “most interesting man in coaching.” He’s already earned a couple rounds of viral coverage at Charlotte: First for storming out of the American Athletic Conference’s preseason media day in indignation after the media picked his team last and asked him just 3 questions in his turn at the podium, and again after he coached his first game in a sleeveless t-shirt and baggy shorts. If anything more interesting than that happens on Saturday night, Gators fans will not be happy.
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• Florida 45 | Charlotte 13

Scoreboard

Week 3 Record: 6-4 straight-up | 3-7 vs. spread
Season Record: 12-7 straight-up | 8-11 vs. spread