Each week, Saturday Down South’s playoff predictor will project which four teams would make the College Football Playoff if the season ended now.

The formula takes into account Vegas national championship odds, offensive and defensive efficiency, analytics, strength of schedule, division standings and the major polls.

The team with the lowest score is the most likely to make the four-team Playoff. (You can find a longer explanation of the formula at the bottom of this post.)

Keep in mind, this is not a projection of where things will be at the end of the season. It’s a projection of where things stand if the season ended today.

Under that premise, Ole Miss vs. Florida State and Mississippi State vs. Alabama would meet in the national semifinals with the potential for both Mississippi schools to reach the national championship.

Georgia, TCU, Oregon and Michigan State are the other teams most likely to push into the playoff, according to our formula.

Week 8 eliminated seven more teams from Playoff contention, meaning 108 of the 128 FBS programs have no hope this season.

THE PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Ole Miss

Score: 37

Last Week: No. 3

The Numbers Say: The Rebels trail 10 other teams on the list in combined points per possession, but Ole Miss is tied with Alabama for the best national championship odds in Vegas and ranks No. 1 according to the Sagarin formula, which weights strength of schedule.

Bottom Line: The Rebels can’t discuss or even think about the Egg Bowl with such a difficult back-to-back staring them in the face (at LSU, vs. Auburn).

Next Up: at LSU.

2. Mississippi State

Score: 52

Last Week: No. 1

The Numbers Say: The Bulldogs plummeted in the analytics measurement we use for our formula, dropping from No. 6 to No. 18 (perhaps in part because the win against Texas A&M doesn’t look as strong). The team’s Vegas odds also slipped. But a No. 1 ranking in both human polls and no penalty for losing a game — that’s all good stuff.

Bottom Line: Clanga, clanga. MSU should be able to glide to 9-0 before facing Alabama.

Next Up: at Kentucky.

3. Alabama

Score: 58

Last Week: No. 7

The Numbers Say: Boy, what a 59-0 romp will do for your numbers. Alabama now ranks 12th nationally in offensive scoring efficiency and fourth in defensive scoring efficiency. The Tide moved up in both human polls and now share the best Vegas odds with Ole Miss.

Bottom Line: As talented as this team is, it slept through the first half of the schedule. With three tough games left in the regular season, it can’t afford to play with anything less than the energy it showed against Texas A&M.

Next Up: at Tennessee.

4. Florida State

Score: 60

Last Week: No. 4

The Numbers Say: FSU’s 52nd-ranked defense (points per possession allowed) and relatively weak schedule has them stuck at No. 10 in the Sagarin Ratings. The unbeaten record and the No. 2 ranking in the human polls helps.

Bottom Line: The Seminoles are in great shape, but can’t have a letdown game against one of the nation’s best defenses this week.

Next Up: at Louisville.

THE PAT HADENS

These teams are the last ones cut by that (crazy?) College Football Playoff Committee. If the season ended today.

5. Georgia

Score: 63.5

Last: No. 6

The Numbers Say: The Bulldogs are first in the SEC East and second in the Football Outsiders analytics metric used in our formula. But the Bulldogs rank ninth in both human polls and incurred a 10-point penalty for the loss to South Carolina.

Bottom Line: Beat Auburn in a few weeks and the Bulldogs have a great chance to represent the East in Atlanta with a playoff spot at stake.

Next Up: vs. Florida (Nov. 1 in Jacksonville, Fla.).

6. TCU

Score: 69.5

Last: No. 12

The Numbers Say: The Horned Frogs have a 10-point penalty due to the loss to Baylor, rank 10th in the human polls and have the 10th-best odds in Vegas. The country’s ninth-best defensive efficiency and a No. 5 ranking in our analytics metric are positives for TCU.

Bottom Line: Gary Patterson’s team has a chance as a one-loss Big 12 champion, but there’s a lot of traffic in that conference right now.

Next Up: vs. Texas Tech.

7. Oregon

Score: 76.5

Last: No. 9

The Numbers Say: The Ducks have the most efficient scoring offense in the country and are No. 1 in the nation according to the analytics metric. But the team’s 76th-ranked defensive efficiency and a 10-point penalty for the loss to Arizona are keeping Oregon out of the playoff for now.

Bottom Line: The offense is back to being scary since the offensive line got healthy. The Ducks must exorcise their demons against Stanford before we can talk about the team’s playoff potential, though.

Next Up: at Cal.

8. Michigan State

Score: 81

Last: No. 10

The Numbers Say: The Spartans rank a pedestrian 25th in the analytics metric, and also have a 10-point penalty for the loss at Oregon. Michigan State does have the third-best championship odds in Vegas.

Bottom Line: Michigan State is in great position — right now — but Ohio State looks better every week.

Next Up: vs. Michigan.

THE DAN MARINOS

Strong contenders, still alive, but unlikely to actually win anything.

9. Baylor: 90
10. Ohio State: 90.5
11. Auburn: 93
12. Notre Dame: 96.5

THE BRADY HOKES

Good enough to make a mediocre bowl game. Can you say San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl?

13. Kansas State: 111
14. Nebraska: 114
15. Arizona State: 139

THE VANDY JAMES FRANKLINS

The ceiling is limited, but they’re feisty.

16. Marshall: 152.5
17. Arizona: 158.5
18. Utah: 160

THE DONALD STERLINGS

Only alive on paper.

Duke
Minnesota

ELIMINATED FROM CONTENTION

These teams will not get a College Football Playoff bid.

Count: 108 of 128

Air Force
Akron
Appalachian State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Army
Ball State
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
BYU
California
Central Michigan
Cincinnati
Clemson
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
East Carolina
Eastern Michigan
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Fresno State
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Hawaii
Houston
Idaho
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kent State
Kentucky
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana Tech
Louisville
LSU
Maryland
Massachusetts
Memphis
Miami (Fla.)
Miami (Ohio)
Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Missouri
Navy
Nevada
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
North Carolina State
Northern Illinois
North Texas
Northwestern
Old Dominion
Ohio
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Oregon State
Penn State
Pitt
Purdue
Rice
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
Southern Methodist
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Texas-San Antonio
Texas State
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
UAB
UCF
UCLA
UNLV
USC
UTEP
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Wyoming