O'Gara: RB1 in the SEC is more open than ever. Here are 4 candidates who could earn it

I bet you don’t know who the SEC’s leading returning rusher is.

Don’t look it up. Think about it.

You know that Quinshon Judkins is off to Ohio State, so it’s not him. You know that Cody Schrader is off to the NFL, so it’s not him, either. Alabama and Georgia lost guys to the NFL, while guys like Jaylen Wright, Ray Davis and Jarquez Hunter also turned pro after successful careers.

Still thinking? That’s OK. You’re not alone.

Florida’s Montrell Johnson Jr. is the SEC’s leading returning rusher. That excludes transfers from outside the SEC, but think about this: Johnson finished No. 9 in the SEC in rushing in 2023 with 817 yards. The conference’s top 8 rushers are all off to the NFL, or gone by way of transfer (Judkins). Of the SEC’s top 13 rushers from 2023, Johnson is the lone player who’ll return to the same program in 2024. Of the SEC’s top 16 rushers, Johnson and Dylan Sampson are the lone returners to the same team.

Wild, I know.

That means there’s a ton of turnover in SEC backfields. We also have 2 new teams entering the fray with Oklahoma and Texas, both of which had solid, top-40 rushing attacks in 2023.

So what does that mean? It’s tougher than ever to predict who’ll finish 2024 as the SEC’s RB1. But that didn’t stop me from handicapping the field with my 4 favorite candidates to do that:

The favorite — Trevor Etienne, Georgia

Earmuff it, Florida fans.

I love Etienne. I’d love him if he were wearing a Buffalo Grove High School uniform. Do I love his potential even more now that he’s in a Georgia uniform? Yes, I do. Etienne’s upside is 2019 D’Andre Swift. With a more consistent offensive line and what should be a slightly increased workload, Etienne is poised for stardom.

I’m not worried about Etienne as a pass-blocker. Georgia has an elite offensive line that won’t put him in the spots he was in at Florida. I’m much more interested in how the Dawgs’ splashiest transfer portal addition is utilized. One would think he’ll get more opportunities in the passing game in a post-Kendall Milton world. The question is about how many carries he’ll get for a team that hasn’t had anyone tote the rock 200 times in a season since Nick Chubb in 2017.

But even if Etienne’s workload profiles similarly to Swift in 2019, there’s RB1 potential. That year, Swift got 220 scrimmage touches. By the way, he did that at 5-8, 212 pounds. Through 2 seasons, here’s how similar Swift (2017-18) and Etienne (2022-23) were:

I’d also argue that Georgia’s 2024 offense, with preseason Heisman Trophy favorite Carson Beck, will see more favorable defensive fronts for Etienne than what Swift dealt with. It remains to be seen if Etienne can capitalize on this opportunity as the new lead back after splitting work with Johnson, but it’s hard to imagine a more favorable situation to step into.

The guy you shouldn’t sleep on — Marcus Carroll, Mizzou

Don’t ever sleep on a Mizzou back with Eli Drinkwitz as the head coach. Period. In 3 of his 4 seasons at Mizzou, Drinkwitz had a different running back finish in the top 4 in the SEC in rushing, including 2 of the past 3 leaders.

Schrader is gone, so naturally, Mizzou replaced him with Carroll. Who is Carroll, you ask? Oh, just the guy who finished No. 10 in FBS in rushing yards at Georgia State. Carroll had 138 scrimmage yards in a loss at LSU, too. He’s more proven than pre-Mizzou Schrader, and even pre-2021 Tyler Badie, who was more of a change-of-pace back before he took over the feature back role.

Carroll will have company in the backfield with the arrival of fellow Sun Belt star Nate Noel, who had 834 rushing yards at Appalachian State. But as we’ve seen with Drinkwitz, a feature back almost always emerges. Carroll, AKA the guy who finished with 2 fewer carries than Schrader in 1 less game, could give Mizzou yet another SEC rushing leader in 2024.

The guy with the highest floor because of his surroundings — Dylan Sampson, Tennessee

I’m a big, big Sampson fan. His burst is special. Not to hate on anyone in that prolific Tennessee rushing attack in 2023, but I wanted to see more of him, especially after his 3-touchdown game in the opener. Getting to watch him get a full workload against Iowa only confirmed that. Sampson ran for more yards against that top-5 Iowa defense (133) than anyone did all season. That’s an ideal way to finish the season.

With all eyes on Nico Iamaleava and this veteran-laden passing attack — Bru McCoy’s return was huge — there should be all sorts of running lanes for Sampson. Tennessee had the SEC’s top rushing attack in 2023, and in 6 years of Josh Heupel’s offense as a head coach, it averaged a minimum of 199 yards.

The only thing that could hurt Sampson is that we have yet to see anyone in Heupel’s offense finish with more than 157 carries in a season. You’re not getting into “RB1” territory without hitting 200 carries in a season. Maybe Sampson can break the mold. Either way, I’ll say his surroundings are about as favorable as it gets.

The guy that could take off if he can stay healthy — Logan Diggs, Ole Miss

I wish we got a full season of Diggs at LSU. The first half of the year when he was right, Diggs was firmly in the All-SEC conversation. Through mid-October, he had 585 rushing yards. Mind you, he missed the Florida State game. Behind an elite offensive line, Diggs showed why he was such a key portal addition after reuniting with Brian Kelly.

Now, though, Diggs is off to Ole Miss, where he’ll replace the aforementioned Judkins. That’s ideal in that offense, which will still feature plenty of Ulysses Bentley IV. But as long as Diggs is healthy, he could still get 15 touches per game. In a Lane Kiffin offense that racked up a minimum of 176 rushing yards/game during his past 7 years as a head coach, there should be plenty of opportunities for Diggs … if he can avoid the injury bug.

OK, I know I said 4 guys but if I get it a 5th — Gavin Sawchuk, Oklahoma

I bet some Oklahoma fans were mad that I didn’t mention him earlier. Apologies. Sawchuk is legit. If you don’t think that’s the case, tell me how he racked up with 617 rushing yards after the calendar turned to November. He had 1 game with 25 snaps before Week 10. Then he took over the feature back role and became a focal point of the offense.

Jackson Arnold and this new-look Sooners offense should lean heavily on Sawchuk, who averaged 7.3 yards/carry against teams that finished ranked in the AP Top 25. That’ll play in the SEC.

So what does that mean?

It can mean a lot of things, but above all else, it shows you why the title of RB1 is truly up for grabs.

You’ll notice that I didn’t even include Rocket Sanders on that list after he transferred to South Carolina. That’s not a knock against Sanders, who was one of the best backs in the country in 2022 but dealt with injuries and a poor offensive line at Arkansas in 2023. I have concerns about his new offensive line and if he can look like the player that finished No. 13 in FBS in rushing 2 years ago.

And again, I don’t mean to disrespect the aforementioned Johnson, AKA the SEC’s leading returning rusher. I just wonder about his upside behind an unproven offensive line with a daunting schedule.

Shoot, plenty of Alabama fans are probably wondering why Justice Haynes wasn’t included here. Haynes flashed potential down the stretch as a decorated freshman in a deep backfield. But in the Kalen DeBoer/Ryan Grubb offense that ranked No. 131 in FBS in rushing attempts/game, it’s hard to imagine Haynes getting the volume to covet RB1 status in the SEC.

I didn’t even mention backs for the likes of LSU and Texas, both of whom might have the best offensive lines in the conference.

That’s why this is a bit of a mystery. That’s become the nature of the beast at the running back position. We’re living in a world in which Judkins just became the first SEC running back to start his career with multiple seasons of 15 rushing touchdowns since Herschel Walker, and yet, he’s off to Ohio State.

There’s fluidity at the position. Maybe that’ll continue into the regular season.

In 13 of the past 15 years, at least 1 SEC player hit 1,400 rushing yards. Superstars always emerge. It’s just a question of who it’ll be.

The best bet? Household names at running back will be aplenty by season’s end.