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ESPN’s Football Power Index was largely accurate last week except for the pair of last-second heaves in Athens didn’t quite measure up to the 70 percent win probability for Tennessee in that one.
Speaking of the Vols, as they continue on the Uncle Verne Circuit, they’re the rare road team not expected to win this week, and several are by a high percentage.
LSU had a 60.2 percent chance of winning at Florida, but that game was postponed because of Hurricane Matthew.
Here are Week 6’s probabilities in a week that shapes up to reward the visitors across the league:
Auburn (66.7 percent) at Mississippi State: The home team has found success lately, winning four out of the past five. This year is a significant drop from the teams’ last meeting in Starkville, when they were each ranked in the top five. One subplot is the rivalry between Dan Mullen and Gus Malzahn, which a large chapter includes the recruitment of Cam Newton. But Mullen has also won the past two games against Malzahn, something a host of SEC West coaches have not done. Auburn’s offense will be the stiffest test for the Bulldogs to date, but given Mullen’s history, the Malzahn employment future talk might get stoked again.
Tennessee at Texas A&M (68.7 percent): A rare top 10 matchup at Kyle Field, it’s just the seventh one in the stadium’s history. It might be the most anticipated game since 2013 against Alabama. Arguably the toughest test to date for a Tennessee team that often includes plenty of drama on the field, especially in the first half. It begs plenty of questions about Tennessee being a team of destiny. But A&M is just 2-6 against ranked opponents under Kevin Sumlin. The teams’ only previous meetings were the 1957 Gator Bowl and 2004 Cotton Bowl. A win for each team would set up mammoth games against Alabama coming up.
Vanderbilt (54.9 percent) at Kentucky: A relative toss-up game, the similarities are striking up and down the roster and on the sidelines. It’s homecoming in Lexington, but the Wildcats have dropped four of five in the series. Derek Mason has hinted at big plays expected, and Vanderbilt needs them as the Commodores have just 13 plays of 20 yards or more. On the other side, it’s a chance to see if Mark Stoops and Co. can turn last year’s bad memories into a win.
Alabama (84.7 percent) at Arkansas: A first in what could be a series of West showdowns, Arkansas had a 7-3 lead at halftime last season, only to give up 24 consecutive points. Though the last time in the Natural State, Alabama had to squeak out a 14-13 victory. This begins a stretch of three tough games for Alabama — two on the road — that includes at Tennessee and Texas A&M before the bye week. It’s a test for Alabama, which has only faced one team still in the AP Top 25. Look for the Alabama secondary vs. Austin Allen to be the difference.
Georgia (60.3 percent) at South Carolina: Long-time friends square off in what amounts to an East undercard. The Bulldogs have struggled recently at Williams-Brice Stadium with losses in 2012 and ’14. The home team has won four consecutive in the series. These teams appear to have more in common that one might have thought to start the season, though they’ve already experienced varied levels of quarterback success.
A former newspaper veteran, Keith Farner is a news manager for Saturday Down South.
