SDS Crystal Ball: Predicting every South Carolina game for 2016
While Will Muschamp looks over the roster he inherited, Steve Spurrier is somewhere lining up a 15-footer.
At least expected to compete in the East a season ago, South Carolina saw Spurrier retire midseason and then completely collapse afterward. Muschamp’s rebuilding job in Columbia is much bigger than many think.
On offense, the three-headed monster of Connor Mitch, Lorenzo Nunez and Perry Orth disappointed under center. True freshman Brandon McIlwain might be the man Day 1. Defensively, the Gamecocks suffered a blow when linebacker extraordinaire Skai Moore was diagnosed with a herniated disc. He’ll miss this season.
It’s no secret that Spurrier’s recruiting efforts took a slide his last few years in office. Muschamp can get players. He did so while at Florida. But can he lead a team? That’s still up for debate.
South Carolina was picked to finish last in the East at SEC Media Days. It’s hard to see it any other way.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
SDS 2015 projection: 8-4 (4-4)
Actual record: 3-9 (1-7)
Sept. 1 at Vanderbilt (L): If indeed McIlwain is handed the starting job right out of high school, his first assignment is a Commodores team led by fantastic defensive mind Derek Mason.
Sept. 10 at Mississippi State (L): In a battle between potential cellar dwellers in their respective divisions, the cowbells will be loud and proud in Starkville.
Sept. 17 vs. East Carolina (L): The Pirates are one of those sneaky teams you never want to see on your schedule. They beat Virginia Tech and destroyed North Carolina in 2014. They almost beat Florida in 2015. They’ll top the Gamecocks this year.
Sept. 24 at Kentucky (L): Even if UK isn’t ready to go toe to toe with the likes of Florida, Georgia and Tennessee, the Wildcats are the best of the second-tier East programs right now.
Oct. 1 vs. Texas A&M (L): South Carolina has had big trouble getting off the field defensively the past two seasons. The Aggies can be scary if they get into a rhythm throwing the ball.
Oct. 8 vs. Georgia (L): If the Gamecocks had trouble the week before with A&M’s passing game, just wait till UGA’s running back tandem of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel gets loose.
Oct. 22 vs. Massachusetts (W): Finally, a cupcake to help get Muschamp in the win column for the first time in Columbia. He surely never imagined an 0-6 start, though.
Oct. 29 vs. Tennessee (L): If South Carolina is probably the worst team in the East, then the Volunteers are clearly the best team. The Vols should coast, even on the road.
Nov. 5 vs. Missouri (L): Five home games in six weeks only manages to result in one W for Muschamp and Co. McIlwain won’t be comfortable in the pocket facing Mizzou’s front four.
Nov. 12 at Florida (L): With so many of Muschamp’s former players still in Gainesville, you can bet he will be greeted with a stirring effort from them at his one-time home.
Nov. 19 vs. Western Carolina (W): Needing to take it down a notch following three straight losses in league play, the Gamecocks take care of the Catamounts in their home finale.
Nov. 25 at Clemson (L): This may be the biggest talent disparity in the history of the Palmetto State rivalry. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, the Tigers might prevail 50-0. Clemson’s largest margin of victory in the series is 51.
SDS 2016 projection: 2-10 (0-8)
SEC race: 7th in the East
The Skinny: There are enough resources in Columbia for Muschamp to succeed. Still, it’s going to take time for him to make the program his and fill the roster with SEC-quality bodies again. Nobody thought South Carolina would be so bad last year. But this year, expectations are in short supply.
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
I live in SC, so I follow them closer than any other team besides my Vols, and I think this prediction is way too much doom and gloom. I think SDS got burned last year by picking SC to be good, so now they are over compensating the other direction.
I don’t think they will be very good, but I think they definitely get at least 4 wins. I think they beat ECU and get Kentucky. I see no reason to expect anything but mediocre out of the wildcats.
For some reason, readers always envision all the SDS writers getting together in a war room somewhere and collaborating on a narrative for each team. I assure you, nothing could be further from the truth. The picks listed from 2015 were made by somebody else. The picks from this season were all made by me. The picks from this year have nothing to do with last year. South Carolina was atrocious a season ago and didn’t exactly load up with a bunch of talent on signing day, so I don’t see much room for optimism.
This is just an INSANE prediction. Can’t take it seriously.
I agree that I don’t think they will be very good, but is just hard to imagine that they will be as bad as they were last year.
when you say we were atrocious It tells me right away you didnt follow SC very closely last year at all.. clearly you just see the record and the players we lost like Pharoah Cooper and Skai Moore and youre not very familiar with any of our new personel. The thing that stands out to me the most is how you say SC was “atrocious” yes we only won 3 games but if you actually watched those games down the strecth youd probably be a little taken back by the way Carolina competed. They fumbled the ball on a 30 yard gain inside the red-zone at Tenn. down by 3 with under a minute left. If Jerell Adams holds on to that ball, the Gamecocks had at least 3 shots at the endz-one or at the least a short game tying FG to knock off everyones SEC East predicted winner Tenn. in Knoxville. The Gamecocks struggled early against SEC champs Florida but came roaring back to only be down by 3 points to florida in the 4th Quarter. If it wasn’t for Florida picking up a 3rd and 8 with a 50+ yard run late in the 4th quarter, the Gamecocks would have had the ball in the 4th only down one score. Im really surprised you didn’t watch the Clemson game John Crist. Did you not see the Gamecocks down by 3 points if I remember right it was 25-28 against Clemson in the 4th Quarter, they fell short giving up a 3rd and 14 I think on the following drive which led to a TD and answered Clemson too late and lost the game 32-37. Were also down a score to Texas A&M, got robbed by a horrible call that called back an 80 yard game winning TD by Pharoah cooper against Citadel on really just a weird day… we beat Vandy with a worse team than we will field this year. our team needed new leadership an aggressive new Defensive scheme, new offensive scheme and a talented QB (insert Brandon Mcilwain) to improve and that we will be. Gamecocks will win over 6.5 games this season I think its a complete display of your lack of knowledge that you predict a team to go 2-10 in what really isn’t a difficult schedule. youre flat way off and its dissapointing that you have no real knowledge of our team but you write for a website that covers the ENTIRE SEC. clearly you haven’t spent any time really researching what we did last year, diagnosed the problems, how we have fixed some problems, new players we have added at skill positions including QB and some JUCO DBS that will really contribute. Clearly I think you have no confidence in what Will Muschamp can do but The staff that Champ has put together is ready to lead, recruit and out coach other teams in the near future so get ready to eat this prediction John Crist becasaue I will definetley be reminding and Im open to any Venmo bet that you wanna put on us winning 2 games next year. Il give you 10-1 odds on that prediction for any amount of money you want
UK is probably the best of the 2nd tier teams in the SEC and has beaten the gamecocks 2 years running. Plus its in Lex. I see UK winning that one
While I think South Carolina won’t be great this season, I highly doubt they will 2-10. Look at their loses from last season, they were close in every game except LSU and Georgia. That was one of the worse teams I think in a decade for South Carolina. I have family members who are Gamecock fans and kind of pay attention to them. I think they’ll get 4+ wins this season. I don’t this article was well researched.
South Carolina had their worst team in 15 years last season, and still managed to lose by 10 or less in 6 of their 9 losses (only 10+ point losses @UGA, @LSU, @Mizzou). Certainly, a number of 4th quarters didn’t go their way last season, but predicting they won’t find a single win vs. Vandy, MSU, ECU, Kentucky, or Mizzou seems a bit ludicrous. I would predict they win 4 or 5 games. If this writer is confident in his pessimism, he should open a betting prop for USC O/U 2.5 wins! I’ll take the over!
I agree with every pick besides East Carolina. I think SC wins but it will be a close game.
Hey John did you actually watch any of our games? We lost to the citadel by a point, Tennessee by 3, A&M by a touchdown, and CLEMSON (the #1 team in the country) by 5. all of those games listed we had an interim head coach, we were a mess last year yet we still managed to hang with those guys. No were not loaded with talent like UT. No we don’t have one of the best backs in the country like UGA, and no we don’t have one of the best defensive players in the country like A&M. But somehow we still managed to make 75% of our games actual games and not blowouts. I see 5 wins this year, they’ll be close wins but wins
Yes, I saw South Carolina lose to the Citadel. That was as much as I needed to read from your post. Somebody tell me WHY the ‘Cocks will be better this season, not just that they will. You’re basing that on what exactly? They lost all their best players from a year ago: Wilds, Cooper, Adams, Moore. Spurrier’s recruiting trailed off the last few years. Muschamp can’t fix that right away. I don’t see good things in Columbia for 2016.
John, respect your opinion but will have to disagree on this one. Sure, you make some valid points however you fail to take into consideration several others. Despite what media types want to tell you, Spurrier did not leave the cupboard bare. Thete certainly is a depth issue but barring a rash of injuries, there is talent on this team. Some proven more than others. Last year was more an issue with coaching than just being an awful football team. Position coaches completely checked out and let these kids down. It starts and ends with SOS. To Shawn Elliotts credit, he was able to keep this team together and continue fighting to the end. With the influx of new coaches and them actually working, recruiting and developing the talent on hand, this team should see improvement. Most importantly, the trenches should be a strength. Will they compete for the SEC East, no! But it is very realistic that they can beat Vandy, ECU, KY, Mass and WC. Last season we were able to shut down the Vandy running game with a defense not as good as what this years should be. Offensively, new playmakers need to step up and i am sure they will. Dont count them out…..its amazing what a little coaching can do.
Fair enough. Here are reasons. The receiving core will be very strong. Assuming Mcilwain starts, which will happen eventually, the skill positions will be talented and extremely fast. The key will be the o line. A freshman qb will likely cost Carolina a game or two early, but as talented as he is I also expect him to win us a game or two at the end of the season that nobody expects. I think as good a defensive coach as muschamp is, we will play hard on d, and I believe that players will have a decent understanding so despite the talent gap on that side it will keep us in games. But the position group of receiver will shock people. If the line can play just near average.
I have USC going 4-8. I think they beat Vandy, and ECU. They lost way too much to be better then that. Maybe in the coming seasons they will rise again, but this season is gonna be one to forget by the USC faithful.
I had a feeling this wouldn’t be good. I’m not going to sit and say we’ll be a contender or anything, but you can find 6 wins on our schedule. And talent wise, if you look at our roster, the potential starters are almost all 4 star recruits out of high school so it’s not like we picked up the d2 kids from newberry or north Greenville. We’re going to be an extremely young team, but I can honestly see 6 wins if things shake out right.
You know a prediction is poorly researched and just out-and-out nuts, when fans of other SEC teams (including SECe rivals) are calling the author out! LOL! More click-bait… guess you win, I clicked. Wish I could get these minutes back.
You’ve got to be kidding me. 2-10? South Carolina may have lost its best players on either side of the ball, but 2-10 is an idiotic forecast for the season. As stated below 75% of the losses this past year were by 10 points or less (with that being said, having an offensive line coach as your head coach for half the season, that’s pretty good). I’m not saying South Carolina is going to win the Natty, but we can ATLEAST find a way to go 3-9 again. Heck, we’ll probably find a way to etch out of a few close games with a win. And The final game vs. Clemson shouldn’t even be predicted, No-one knows how that one will turn out (loosing by 5 points this past year). I’m going to give the gamecocks a 6-6 record this year.
Thank you for insuring that the gamecocks finish at least 6-6 this year with that “bold” assessment. To answer your question about why they do better, the answer is depth. Do we have the depth of Alabama, of course not, but we are definitely talent wise middle of the pack. A solid offensive line with Zandi and Knott, pharaoh’s replacement will be Nunez, and picking up the slack for Skai Moore will be Walton and Holloman. Our biggest issue was defense, and we have to be better because you couldn’t get much worse, T. Rob will accomplish what ward couldn’t. Muschamp has already addressed our run d and secondary with key junco and 4* pick ups who have size to play day one.
*juco
I don’t have a problem with the prediction. He knows about as much as the rest of us do about this team, nothing. It would be smart to put a little more research into your articles. I would expect a senior writer for a sports website to inject a little more fact and analysis into a prediction. I feel like I just read a college football article written in the “Cosmopolitan”.
I think usc gets the upset against ecu but everything else is good. 3-9, last in the east.
Well, considering they just went thru a coaching change too (you might also remember Lincoln Riley is now in Norman), I’m not too worried. They also hired our old D-line coach, so if we get upset, it won’t be b/c of pressure on our QB.
This is possibly one of the laziest and most surface level analyses I have ever read, you should be ashamed Mr. Crist. If you want to know why South Carolina will be much much better this year you simply need to compare the old and new staffs. The last staff, simply put, was not FBS caliber save for SOS and Shawn Elliot. They could not develop talent to save their lives and it has shown with where they have all landed since. This staff on the other hand is night and day. You have one of the best defensive staffs in the SEC not to mention some very high quality coaches on offense (Kurt Roper, Bryan McClendon, Pat Washington). The talent on this team is not so far in the gutter as you and your click bait colleagues like to think, the development however was. Now, are they deep enough to win the SEC East? Not likely, the secondary is way to thin and the skill positions although talented are young. But I would put our starters against anyone in the East and be confident given the questions at many of the other schools. The coaching ability and schemes of this new staff will show just how talented this team is and rest assured Coach Boom and staff will get the most out of whats there. They will surprise some folks this fall and I believe 6-6 is the baseline with wins over Vandy, Kentucky, Miz, ECU, Wester Carolina and UMASS. Toss ups against A&M, Miss State and maybe a potential upset against Florida, Georgia or Tennessee if the cards fall right. Unfortunately as much as it pains me to say Clemson is highly likely to be a loss although it wouldn’t surprise me if they made it a fight. And if you want me to explain each of those games id be glad to as based on your articles I’m pretty sure I know more about this league than you do.
I agree you are much more factually, statistically and more roster savy than this John Crist character…. 2-10 really? that is hilarious…. Its gonna be very very very difficult for us to win just 2 games… especially considering our schedule is the easiest its been in probably 10 years
2-10 is a safe pick. I have to think Vandy, ECU, UK and Mizz will be close games. If they beat Vandy in the 1st game, then mild optimism. Lines of scrimmage, I think, will be improved.
For the first time ever, I think I might agree with Crist here. If there’s an SEC game they could pull off a win at, I think it would be Kentucky or Mizzou. I’m not expecting good things from either team, but I’m expecting almost less from the Gamecocks. Not meant as an insult at all, it’s just based off my current understanding of the team.
I don’t see this happening. Maybe I’m a homer but I don’t see USC going 2-10 but at the same time I really can’t say your wrong because it could happen. Every team that he said we could lose to we could lose to. I don’t think it will happen and god knows I don’t want it to happen but honestly I see anything from 2-10 to 8-4 this year
Ok so I have to disagree with this projection. I logged onto another sports site to do a little research and found the following:
Over the last 11 years, South Carolina has posted 5-6 records against Florida, Georgia, and Tennessee, with an 8-3 record against UK, and a 9-2 record against Vanderbilt.
The closest rivalry of the 5-6 teams is ostensibly Tennessee, with average margin of victory in those 11 games coming in at 7.8. The average margin of victory of the Florida games is 15.2 and Georgia is 23.4. This isn’t necessarily indicative of how much superior those two teams are than South Carolina; remember, we went 5-6 against all three of these teams.
If you drill down a little deeper, you’ll find that as often as they’ve walloped us, we’ve dealt it right back. For those that are curious, we’ve been 6-5 against Clemson during the same time span, with an average margin of victory of 12 points.
As has been said before, take a few unlucky breaks and spin them differently, and you’re looking at a vastly different season last year. We’re a Jerrell Adams fumble away from beating Tennessee. We’re a Perry Orth pick-6 away from beating TAMU. And aside from that one bad play, Orth played very very well in that game, and in many others last year. We’re a mystery play away from beating the Citadel. So already we could have very easily been a 6 win team last year.
And how bout that flood? You think football was on anybody’s minds when we went to LSU in what should have been a home game? Frankly, that game should have been rescheduled altogether in my opinion.
Near misses against Florida and Clemson, inexplicable meltdown against UK and you’re looking at a 9-3 season.
The John Hoke and Lorenzo Ward debacle is probably mostly to blame, if a single thing can be pointed out. But it was a combination of a lot of little things. My point is: we weren’t as terrible as everyone likes to believe.
So sure, we’ve lost a few key players for this year. But I think a lot of young guys really started to develop last year that should really have a coming out party this year. Couple that with an EXTREMELY manageable schedule, and if we gel early and get some swagger, I see no reason why we can’t win 7 or possibly even 8 games this year.
0 for 1
1 for 3
Hey John! Guess the Gamecocks can take the rest of the season off because they’ve met your predicted win total for the entire season in Week 3! Now it’s time for Mai Tai’s on the beach for the next 10 weeks Gamecocks!