Trae Young tried his best to be competitive Sunday evening after turning his ankle on a ref’s foot, but he was ineffective at best in the fourth quarter, allowing the Bucks to erase an Atlanta lead and go on to win Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals, 113-102. Young is listed as questionable for tonight’s Game 4 and his health helps explain the Hawks finding themselves as 6.5-point underdogs at home for this critical matchup.

Let’s jump into a potential series-deciding Game 4 between Milwaukee and Atlanta with five bold Bucks vs. Hawks betting picks.

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Khris Middleton took over Sunday’s game in the fourth quarter, scoring 20 of his game-high 38 points in the final stanza alone. He hit six 3-pointers to go along with 11 rebounds and seven assists in 42 minutes of game action. Giannis Antetokounmpo had another solid night with 33 points and 11 rebounds of his own, with the two Milwaukee stars combining to shoot 28-47 (59.6%) from the field.

Even with Young hobbled for much of the fourth quarter, no other Atlanta starter scored more than 13 points, with Danilo Gallinari the next leading points-getter for the Hawks with 18 off the bench. If Young is limited at all tonight, one has to wonder where Atlanta will turn for its scoring in hopes of evening this series at 2-2 before it heads back to Milwaukee for Game 5.

Bucks vs. Hawks Betting Picks (Game 4)

Best Bets
Trae Young Over 2.5 Made Threes (DraftKings Sportsbook -143)
Bobby Portis Over 4.5 Rebounds (DraftKings Sportsbook -106)
Jrue Holiday Over 2.5 Made Threes (FanDuel Sportsbook +140)
John Collins Under 15.5 Points (DraftKings Sportsbook -122)
lint Capela Over 23.5 Total Points and Rebounds (FanDuel Sportsbook -102)

 

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1.  Trae Young Over 2.5 Made Threes (DraftKings Sportsbook -143)

Young is listed as questionable with his ankle injury, as expected. Assuming he gives it a go, which he likely will, it’s hard to imagine the ankle being 100%. There will almost assuredly be stretches of play where Young will elect to shoot jumpers rather than drive hard to the basket. And it’s easy to say Milwaukee knows this and will guard him closely, forcing him to test the ankle on the dribble, as he has shown time and again his willingness to pull up from 30 feet.

You just cannot guard a guy that far from the basket for 40+ minutes.

Young made six triples in Game 3, with one deep one coming after the ankle turn. That was the fifth straight home game in which Young splashed at least three from deep. He has averaged 3.8 made threes per game at home in the playoffs and has attempted at least six 3-pointers in each of his last 14 postseason games.

Young attempted and made his most threes per game on one day of rest this season. He also averaged a whole three-pointer made more per game (2.6) and attempted more per game (6.6) in Hawks’ wins than losses, shooting nearly 40% from deep in the team’s victories. This is precisely the type of effort they will need tonight if they hope to level the series.

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2. Bobby Portis Over 4.5 Rebounds (DraftKings Sportsbook -106)

Bobby Portis’ role in Milwaukee’s game plan has shown renewed importance in this series after being a healthy scratch in three games during the Brooklyn series. Portis continues to log 15-20 minutes of high energy off the bench, which is much needed against the athletic, aggressive rebounders Atlanta sends out there in droves.

The 6’10” big man takes major minutes from Brook Lopez, but also proved he can give Antetokounmpo a rest, sliding down to cover the 6’8” guys from Atlanta. In a game where Young could be camping beyond the arc and the Hawks could throw the kitchen sink at Antetokounmpo  and Middleton, Portis should have plenty of opportunities to pull down rebounds on both ends of the court.

He has quietly averaged 4.7 rebounds per game in the postseason after piling up 7.1 per game during the regular season, both figures are enough to get it done tonight.

He also topped this prop number in all three regular season meetings against the Hawks, averaging six boards per contest. Portis will continue to earn significant court time with his contributions and should be in for a major workload tonight following his 7-12 shooting night in Game 3, where he boasted a +/- of +17 to go with his 15 points.

3. Jrue Holiday Over 2.5 Made Threes (FanDuel Sportsbook +140)

Holiday struggled mightily shooting the ball throughout the Brooklyn series, but has returned to form here against Atlanta. The first two games of this series saw him shoot 23-39 from the field (59.0%), good for 27.5 points per game, prompting a lot more defensive attention in Game 3. The Bucks’ guard promptly turned himself into the distributor, dishing out 12 assists on Giannis’ and Middleton’s big nights.

Atlanta will have to shift its defensive focus to those two stars tonight, likely leaving Trae Young on an island against Holiday. With an ankle presumably at less than 100%, Young will have to play a step off Holiday to avoid getting blown by on the dribble, thus freeing the Bucks’ future Olympian for clean looks from long range. Holiday made five and three 3-pointers, respectively, in Games 1 and 2.

To receive this kind of monetary return for a guy who made 3+ triples in 18 of 59 regular season games (34.0%) and should get several clean studies tonight, is an opportunity we do not want to pass up.

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4. John Collins Under 15.5 Points  (DraftKings Sportsbook -122)

John Collins has been a wrecking ball at points in this postseason, but if his fourth quarter with Trae Young hobbled is any indicator of things to come, we could be primed for a slip in form for the 6’8” forward.

With Young unable to get into the lane and create havoc upon which Collins thrived with alley-oops and putbacks, he was relegated to four points, while missing a dunk, turning the ball over, committing a foul, and missing two free throws, while collecting just two rebounds, despite playing the final eight and a half minutes.

Collins finished the game with just 13 points and eight rebounds in 23 minutes of action. That marked two games in a row now that Collins has failed to top 24 minutes of action after playing 33+ in nine straight previous. With Cam Reddish back available and Onyeka Okongwu having a strong Game 3, Collins could find himself once again in a bit of a timeshare minutes-wise. Collins has failed to reach the 16 points needed to beat us here in 10 of his 15 playoff games.

Collins is not a guy who finds his own shot well, so if Young can’t create for him tonight, he should struggle to top this point total given that he only averages 14.3 points per game here in the playoffs, even with Young’s help.

5. Clint Capela Over 23.5 Total Points and Rebounds (FanDuel Sportsbook -102)

Clint Capela may find himself the most important man in Atlanta tonight if Trae Young’s ankle is anything less than perfect. Capela somehow scraped together 11 rebounds, six of which came on the offensive end, in just 28 minutes of play, while earning a team best +11 +/- rating, one of just two Hawks to have a positive value.

Capela can be found in and around the lane doing all the dirty work that rarely gets praised but is infinitely important to a team of shooters like the Hawks. He led the NBA in rebounds per game this season with 14.3, but also was the league’s best in offensive rebounds per contest with 4.42.

That knack on the offensive glass could pay huge dividends for us tonight with putbacks that carve chunks out of this combo total, as Young may be forced to do his damage from long-range if he can’t cut and drive as he does at full health.

Capela has topped this combined points and rebounds total in seven of his 15 playoff games thus far (46.7%) and did so in 47 of his 63 regular season games (74.6%). He also had another four games during the regular season where he reached exactly 23 combined points and rebounds.

We expect his importance tonight to emulate that stellar regular season where he averaged 15.2 points and 14.3 rebounds per game (29.5 combined).

 

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