Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Louisville. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.

Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech

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Jeff Brohm wasn’t just another coach hired to win football games when he returned to Louisville in December 2022. He was a prodigal son being counted on to recapture the glory of his playing days as a Cardinals quarterback.

Nothing like a little pressure.

Brohm knew exactly what he was getting into when he took the job following a successful run at Purdue. And he delivered right away by leading his alma mater to 10 wins, including an upset of Notre Dame, along with the program’s first trip to the ACC Championship Game.

But that immediate success has only upped the ante.

Especially since it was tempered by a disappointing finish that included consecutive losses to rival Kentucky, Florida State in the conference title game and Southern Cal in the Holiday Bowl.

“While we had some good success last year, 10-1 at one point, we lost our last 3 games,” Brohm said. “I think because of that, there’s a lot of things to learn, a lot of areas to improve. It’s caused the hunger to get back in right away and understand if you want to be really good, you have to beat big-time opponents and find a way to win close games.”

The Cardinals will have plenty of opportunities to accomplish that goal this season. Not only do they have rematches with Notre Dame and Kentucky, both on the road, but this year’s schedule also includes a trip to Clemson, which they didn’t play last season.

It’s a challenge they’ll face with a vastly different lineup, too. Although several key contributors are back, especially on a defense anchored by ACC sacks leader Ashton Gillotte and all-conference cornerback Quincy Riley, Louisville’s lineup has been reloaded with a massive transfer class ranked among the nation’s best.

“The entire football team has worked hard in the offseason. They understand we have good challenges ahead of us this year,” Brohm said. “This is a competitive league with a lot of parity and a lot of good football coaches and players. If you don’t expect to bring your ‘A’ game and play your very best, you’re not going to win.”

The Cardinals did that more times than not in 2023.

Now the pressure is on to do it again.

Transfer tracker

Quality or quantity?

Brohm is hoping he’s hit on a little of both as he attempts to fill all the missing pieces from his surprising 10-win team that played for the ACC championship. He cast a wide net in search of replacements for quarterback Jack Plummer, leading rushers Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo, top receiver Jamari Thrash and a large portion of his defense. And he succeeded in putting together by far the ACC’s biggest transfer class.

“Our philosophy is we want to win now. We want to win this year,” the Louisville coach said. “Yes, you can build for the future and get your young players ready to play, which is great. But you want to win now.”

To that end, Brohm brought in 7th-year senior Shough, who has spent time at Oregon and Texas Tech and who excelled in Louisville’s spring game, to be his quarterback. He turned to ACC rivals Miami and North Carolina to pick up running back Donald Chaney Jr. and cornerback Tayon Holloway while also collecting castoffs from SEC programs Alabama (wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks), Florida (cornerback Jalen Kimber) and Kentucky (tight end Izayah Cummings).

Once spring practice concluded, Brohm turned his attention to bolstering his defensive line by bringing in a trio of edge rushers in Tramel Logan from USF, Myles Jernigan from new ACC rival Cal and Richard Kinley II from Memphis.

“We’re not scared to change the roster, improve our football team,” Brohm said. “Whether they’re starters or they provide great competition, they play a role. Everybody we brought in has been with a purpose.”

Louisville’s running man

The ACC, bolstered by its new members Stanford and Cal, piled up 89 medals – including 36 gold – at the recently completed Olympics. While all-conference cornerback Riley wasn’t among the athletes representing the conference in Paris, his credentials as a sprinter would make him a candidate to run the anchor leg if the league put together a 4×100 relay team among its football stars.

Riley was the South Carolina High School Boys Track Athlete of the Year in 2019 after winning state titles in the 100 and 200 meters. He credits his track background for helping him develop into one of the nation’s top pass defenders.

“Track keeps you in shape. It will also help you learn real running form,” said the redshirt senior who was among the ACC leaders with 14 passes defended and 3 interceptions in 2023. “When I’m playing football, you hardly ever see me strain. I show my real speed because I have good running form. I feel like I know how to run, keep up, play at a different type of speed than a normal player that didn’t run track.”

Unlike most former sprinters who prefer to use their speed on offense as running backs or receivers. Riley chose to concentrate on defense. For a very specific reason.

“I don’t want to get hit. I was small,” he said with a chuckle. “Running was fun for me. When I switched over to DB, I thought it was (more fun). New technique, a hard position to learn. I feel like it’s a challenge for me.”

Shough time

There aren’t many players in college football with more experience than Plummer, the 6th-year quarterback who led Louisville to the ACC Championship Game last season. But Brohm managed to find one in Plummer’s replacement, Shough.

Now in his 7th season with his 3rd program, the graduate transfer from Texas Tech will turn 25 on Sept. 28, the day he leads the Cardinals against Notre Dame in South Bend. He’s been around so long that some of his current teammates were in middle school when he started his career as a backup to Justin Herbert at Oregon in 2018.

“Brian Brohm and I joke about it,” Shough said of his current offensive coordinator. “He played 4 years in college and 3 years in the NFL. And he was out of the NFL by the time I’ll be out of college. It’s not about the opportunities you have, it’s about making the most of them.”

Shough is off to a strong start at Louisville. On his first snap of the Cardinals’ spring game, he threw an 80-yard touchdown pass to Chris Bell. His strong arm and ability to make plays with his legs should make him a good fit for the Brohm brothers’ offensive scheme. The only question is whether he can stay healthy for the entire season.

That hasn’t always been easy for him. His career has been sidetracked by a series of injuries, including a back issue that limited him to only 4 games last season.

“We’re excited about Tyler and what he brings to the table,” Jeff Brohm said. “To this point, he’s come in and been a great leader. He has 1 year to play college football and he wants to go out with a bang.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Austin Peay (W)

The Governors made the FCS Playoffs last season. But they’re an FCS team. Take the check and go home.

Week 2: vs. Jacksonville State (W)

The Gamecocks won 9 games and played in a bowl last season in their first year as an FBS program. And unlike #GoPeay, they’re a Group of 5 program that comes to Louisville with realistic hopes of leaving with a win. But they’re still a Group of 5 program. Take the check and go home.

Week 3: Open

Week 4: vs. Georgia Tech (W)

OK, so it’s not the season opener as it was last year. But a win against the Yellow Jackets in the ACC opener is becoming a tradition for Brohm and his Cardinals.

Week 5: at Notre Dame (L)

The Irish have been waiting for a full year to get Louisville at their place for a little revenge. Without Jawhar Jordan in the backfield to shred Notre Dame’s defense like he did in last year’s upset in Louisville, they’ll get it.

Week 6: vs. SMU (W)

The Mustangs didn’t see a defense like this in the AAC. Preston Stone, meet Ashton Gillotte.

Week 7: at Virginia (W)

The Cardinals took the lowly Cavaliers lightly and had to rally in the 4th quarter to beat them at home in 2023. Lesson learned.

Week 8: vs. Miami (L)

Tyler Van Dyke threw for 327 yards against Louisville’s defense in last season’s high-scoring shootout in South Florida. This year’s number could be even bigger with Cam Ward doing the passing.

Week 9: at Boston College (W)

A breather to sandwich the 2 toughest games on the conference schedule.

Week 10: at Clemson (L)

The road to the ACC Championship Game was a much easier journey when it didn’t run through Death Valley.

Week 11: Open

Week 12: at Stanford (W)

The Cardinals vs. the Cardinal. The ACC game we’ve all been waiting for. A long Western road trip aided by the week off to get ready.

Week 13: vs. Pitt (W)

The Panthers took advantage of Louisville’s post-Notre Dame hangover to pull off an upset last year. This time the Cardinals will have to fight to avoid looking past them the week before facing rival Kentucky.

Week 14: at Kentucky (W)

The Cardinals have lost 5 consecutive Commonwealth Cup matchups and 6 of the past 7. The streak should have ended last year at home, but it didn’t thanks to Louisville’s 4th-quarter meltdown. This time Brohm’s team won’t let it slip away. Even though the game will be played in Lexington, not Louisville.

2024 projection: 9-3 (6-2)

#GoCards

Louisville was picked to finish 8th in the ACC last year. But they took advantage of a schedule that avoided the top 3 teams in the preseason poll – eventual champion Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina – and earned a trip to the championship game in Charlotte by finishing 2nd in the new division-less standings.

They won’t have that luxury again. Not with a more challenging schedule that has the Cardinals facing their toughest tests on the road.

But with several key returners on defense and the arrival of a talented group of experienced transfers to fill in the gaps on offense, there’s every reason to believe they’ll be right back in the thick of the ACC race again in Brohm’s 2nd season at his alma mater.

They just won’t be sneaking up on anybody this season.