Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with Miami. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.

Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech | Louisville

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There are typically 3 stages to building (or rebuilding) a college football program.

Year 1: Lay the foundation. Or in some cases, tear it down to build it back up again.

Year 2: Install the framework and build a culture.

Year 3: Finish the job.

It’s a progression that has Mario Cristobal and his Miami Hurricanes understandably optimistic.

Cristobal’s first season back at his alma mater was a starting point, albeit a disappointing one, considering the fanfare and promise that celebrated his arrival from Oregon.

He responded to that 5-7 season in 2022 by turning over nearly his entire roster through the transfer portal and a nationally recognized recruiting class, and taking a step forward by getting Miami back to a bowl game last year.

This offseason, he added Heisman-quality quarterback Cam Ward and proven 1,000-yard rusher Damien Martinez to an already talented mix that includes the big-play receivers Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George along with ACC Defensive Rookie of the Year Rueben Bain. The Hurricanes look like a fully-stocked team ready to blossom. They’re ranked No. 19 in the AP preseason poll and have been touted by several major outlets as a legitimate contender for the newly expanded College Football Playoff.

“It’s always been about Year 3 for us,” Cristobal said. “The parts that take the longest to develop are the offensive and defensive lines. So we went trench-heavy right away. What you see now is a seasoned offensive line.

“Now we’ve complemented those guys with an elite quarterback, guys at the skill positions that are going to have a chance to play on Sundays for a long time, as well as pieces behind the line that are also going to be those kinds of players. When you combine that with culture, and continuity in our systems, that bodes well.”

It does, with one major caveat.

This is Miami, where expectations don’t often match reality. And coaches come and go faster than a typical South Florida afternoon thunderstorm.

Cristobal is the 5th coach in the past 2 decades to reach Year 3 with the promise of getting the Hurricanes’ swagger back and returning them to the national elite. Will he finally be able to succeed where Randy Shannon, Al Golden, Mark Richt and Manny Diaz failed?

Let’s take a closer look to find out.

Transfer tracker

Cristobal has put together back-to-back top-5 national recruiting classes. That infusion of talent bodes well for the Hurricanes in the long term. But this Miami team is built to win now, a fact that has dictated its coach’s aggressive approach to the portal this offseason.

“How you build your roster is all dependent upon what the starting point is in a program,” Cristobal said. “At a previous program, there wasn’t much use of a transfer portal by us because we were very junior- and senior-laden. We have a handful of 4th and 5th-year guys that are awesome. They need to be complemented by guys that have had a significant amount of snap counts, maturity at certain positions.”

No position is more important than quarterback. And Cristobal succeeded in plucking the plum from this year’s transfer class with the addition of Ward from Washington State. The ACC’s preseason Player of the Year is already proving to be a nice fit for the Hurricanes’ offense after throwing for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns in his new team’s spring game.

But he’s far from Miami’s only new offensive weapon in its 14-man transfer class. Cristobal provided Ward with a potent downfield target in Houston’s Sam Brown, who caught 62 passes for 813 yards and 3 touchdowns for Houston last season. And he bulked up the ground attack by signing explosive running back Martinez, who rushed for 2,167 yards and 16 touchdowns while averaging 6.1 yards per carry in 2 seasons at Oregon State.

The Hurricanes’ top defensive portal additions include Arizona safety Isaiah Taylor, the son of Dolphins great and NFL Hall of Famer Jason Taylor, NC State nose guard CJ Clark and late addition Jaylin Alderman, a veteran linebacker from Louisville, along with Michigan State defensive tackle Simeon Barrow Jr.

Rivalry victory

Miami will get a chance to break its 3-game losing streak to in-state rival Florida State when the teams meet at Hard Rock Stadium on Oct. 26. But even before the new season kicks off, the Hurricanes have already scored a victory against the Seminoles.

It came last January, when after taking official visits to both of the ACC’s Sunshine State schools, Ward chose to play his final season at Miami. The sought-after transfer quarterback gave location, offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson’s Air Raid scheme and the abundance of returning offensive weapons as the main reasons for his decision.

As for the implications his decision will have on the rivalry, he’s trying his best not to pour any more fuel than there already is onto the fire.

“I feel like the best thing for me is to not worry about the rivalry stuff because at the end of the day, that’s for the fans and the media. In today’s football, it’s 22 people on the field and we’re going to see who wants to play football on that day. Florida State is going to have to play us. We’re going to have to play Florida State. Whoever brings their ‘A’ game will win the game.”

Ward has already shown that his “A” game is something special. After lighting it up in his first 2 seasons at FCS Incarnate Word, he threw for a combined 6,963 yards and 47 touchdowns with only 16 interceptions in 25 starts at Washington State. It’s a performance that has made him the ACC’s highest-rated Heisman candidate at +2000, according to FanDuel sportsbook.

Impact siblings

Francisco Mauigoa goes by the nickname Kiko to help differentiate him from his “little” brother Francis among their coaches and teammates. But while their names are similar, there’s no confusing them when they’re together on the practice field.

Kiko is a lean 6-3, 230-pound linebacker with an outgoing personality that has helped him become the heart and soul of Miami’s defense. Francis, whose nickname is Cici, is 3 inches taller, nearly 100 pounds heavier and a more reserved mainstay on the Hurricanes’ offensive line. Though their sizes, positions and personalities differ greatly, they both play equally important roles in their team’s success.

“I love playing with my brother,” the older Mauigoa said. “We’re blessed to have this moment at such a high level. For him to be by my side, to critique me and encourage me when I’m down, that’s all you can ask for as a brother.”

The bond the Mauigoas share is a big reason Kiko decided to return for a 2nd season with the Hurricanes rather than enter the NFL Draft. The transfer from Washington State posted a team-leading 82 tackles (82 for losses) with 7.5 sacks and an interception in his first season at Miami.

According to Cristobal, his return has been a positive influence on more than just Francis, who started all 13 games as a true freshman at right tackle in 2023.

“He has an incredible work ethic and care factor that impacts the culture of the team and the organization in a big-time way,” Cristobal said. “Both of them do. They’re both elite players who have the opportunity to be the best at their respective positions. They affect games. They’re winners. Both have tremendous futures both in college football and the NFL.”

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at Florida (W)

The meeting between these Sunshine State rivals is a pivotal opener for both teams. The Gators need it to keep the heat off coach Billy Napier. The Hurricanes – and by proxy, the ACC – need it to justify their usual offseason hype. This one will come down to the quarterbacks. Though not in the traditional sense. Both Cam Ward and Graham Mertz can sling it. But it’s tough to throw when you’re laying on your back. So the team that can protect their passer better is the one that will win. Florida gave up 39 sacks last year. Miami only 16. Advantage Canes.

Week 2: vs. Florida A&M (W)

The Rattlers will win halftime. By that time, the Hurricanes will have already put the actual game away.

Week 3: vs. Ball State (W)

Another opportunity to get the freshmen and walk-ons some game reps. David Letterman’s alma mater went 4-8 last season and was outscored 89-17 by its 2 power conference opponents, Kentucky and Georgia.

Week 4: at South Florida (W)

There’s a reason ACC commissioner Jim Phillips has warned his teams to stop playing non-power conference opponents on the road. They’re always dangerous. They’re even more dangerous when the opponent is an in-state rival looking to make a statement. It will be closer than it should be, but the Hurricanes have enough offensive firepower to avoid the upset.

Week 5: vs. Virginia Tech (L)

Miami has more hype. The Hokies have more substance. In a close game between 2 good teams, which these are, go with the coach who’s the better game manager. In this case, Brent Pry.

Week 6: at Cal (L)

That other coach, the one with suspect game management skills, can usually be counted on to turn at least 1 win into a loss every season. A cross-country trip against an easily underestimated opponent is right in Cristobal’s wheelhouse.

Week 7: Open

Week 8: at Louisville (W)

Tyler Van Dyke threw for 327 yards against Louisville’s defense in last season’s high-scoring shootout. This year’s number could be even bigger with Cam Ward doing the passing. Big enough to outscore the Cardinals this time.

Week 9: vs. Florida State (L)

The Seminoles are what the Hurricanes want to be. And wish they were.

Week 10: vs. Duke (W)

New Blue Devils coach Manny Diaz would love to go down to Miami and exact some personal revenge on the school that ran him out of town in favor of Cristobal. He just doesn’t have the horses to make it happen.

Week 11: at Georgia Tech (W)

Mario won’t forget to take a knee this time.

Week 12: Open

Week 13: vs. Wake Forest (W)

The teams haven’t met since 2013. But when they have played, the Hurricanes have dominated the series. Miami is 5-0 against the Deacons since joining the ACC in 2004.

Week 14: at Syracuse (W)

The Hurricanes won’t be going to Charlotte again this year. And that’s a disappointment. But a win in Syracuse at least guarantees they’ll improve on last year’s win total and take another step in the right direction.

2024 projection: 9-3 (5-3)

#ItsAllAboutTheU

Expectations for the Hurricanes are running high heading into the new season.

But what else is new?

It’s like Groundhog Day in late summer. This is the year Miami will finally live up to its preseason hype and return to the championship form of its glory days.

Only it never seems to turn out that way. This year could be different, though.

While there are some holes to fill, particularly in a secondary that lost both safeties and a starting cornerback to the NFL Draft, Cristobal has put together a star-studded roster filled with difference-makers on both sides of the ball. And his program has made steady progress over the 2 seasons he’s been back at his alma mater.

Patience, however, is for other schools. Realistic or not, the bar has been set higher at Miami. That has only increased the urgency to deliver on both Cristobal and his players.

“I don’t want to say too much, because we can talk about it all we want,” said veteran offensive tackle Jalen Rivers. “But I feel like this team is different because we all have the mindset that we’ve had enough. We want to win.”

It’s Year 3. The time to do it is now.