Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues with North Carolina. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 17-team ACC.

Previously: Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami  | NC State

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It’s been 5 years since Mack Brown returned to North Carolina to clean up the mess left behind by Larry Fedora.

Long enough to make at least a semi-accurate determination on whether the Hall of Fame coach’s 2nd tenure in Chapel Hill has been a success or a disappointment.

It’s a matter of opinion, of course.

But in the opinion of a certain former ESPN analyst who also happens to be the Tar Heels coach, the past half-decade has been a little of both.

“There’s a lot of wonderful things that these guys have done,” Brown said. “We’ve won some games that really we shouldn’t have won. Surprised people. We’ve had national rankings that are really high.

“What we haven’t done, though … we’ve lost some games that we shouldn’t have lost. That’s really hurt us. We haven’t finished the seasons like we should. The old adage of media and fans is, ‘Remember November.’ That’s why we don’t have the respect nationally that we should have. Because we haven’t finished right.”

Brown’s Tar Heels have come tantalizingly close to a breakthrough by earning a trip to the Orange Bowl in 2020, getting to the ACC Championship Game in 2022 and earning a top-10 national ranking last season.

But like a snakebit golfer leaving a winning putt hanging on the lip, they’ve always seemed to come up short when it matters most.

Brown can only hope his team gets another shot at finishing strong this season.

A lot will depend on how the Tar Heels start.

The front half of the schedule is significantly less difficult than the back. And without record-setting quarterback Drake Maye and top receiver Tez Walker, they’re going to have to rely more heavily on their running game and the improvement of a defense that has been their weak link over the past 5 seasons.

Expectations are low after being picked to finish 8th in the ACC.

But hopes remain high.

Let’s take a look into the Crystal Ball to see how hopeful they should be.

Transfer tracker

Quarterback was obviously a portal priority, with both Texas A&M’s Max Johnson and Arkansas’ Jacolby Criswell being brought in to compete with returning backup Conner Harrell. But Brown and his staff put just as much emphasis on protecting the quarterback. Which is probably a smart idea, since as Maye knows only too well, it’s hard to throw the ball when you’re laying on your back.

The Tar Heels gave up 37 sacks a year ago. And 40 the season before. So in an effort to improve a unit that returns only 1 starter, UNC loaded up on 4 offensive line transfers. They include Austin Blaske from Georgia, Jakiah Leftwich from ACC rival Georgia Tech, Howard Sampson from North Texas and Zach Greenberg from Division III Muhlenberg).

There’s also a bit of familiarity to UNC’s transfer class.

First, there’s tight end Jake Johnson, who is the brother of quarterback Max Johnson. Then there’s the duo of safety Jakeen Harris and defensive tackle Joshua Harris Jr. They aren’t related. Jakeen is from Savannah, Ga., and Joshua is from Roxboro, N.C. They were, however, teammates at rival NC State on a defense that was one of the ACC’s best – proving the old adage that if you can’t beat ’em, get ’em to join you.

Defense by committee

Jay Bateman wasn’t the answer. Neither was Gene Chizik, who helped Brown win a national championship at Texas. Next up in the pursuit to improve a UNC defense that has annually ranked at or near the bottom of the ACC is Collins, Brown’s 3rd coordinator in his 6 seasons since returning to Chapel Hill.

While Collins was bust as a head coach at Georgia Tech, he’s had success leading defenses at Mississippi State and Florida. Most important, his approach to defensive football is the 180-degree opposite of the man he’s replacing. Where Chizik favored a conservative philosophy designed to limit big plays and force opponents into sustaining extended drives, Collins is much more aggressive in his play calling.

“He said, ‘I want to look very complicated and be simple, but I want to create chaos,’” Brown said of Collins. “And the kids just love it.”

Collins, like his predecessors, has some talent to work with. Kaimon Rucker is an occasionally dominant edge rusher who earned 2nd-team All-ACC honors a year ago. Power Echols is an athletic linebacker who made 102 tackles. Alijah Huzzie led the team with 3 interceptions. The goal heading into the new season is to deepen the talent pool so that the starters don’t have to be on the field as much.

“They got worn out by the end of the year,” Brown said. “They’re good players. But if they get hurt we don’t have anybody ready to play. So we’ve got to play more players. We’ve said it for 5 years. We haven’t done it. That’s one thing Geoff Collins is really committed to doing. And we’ve got to have enough guts to put them in.”

Conner, Max … or Jacolby?

Brown didn’t settle on Sam Howell as his starting quarterback until 13 days before the opening game in 2019. It took him even longer to settle on Drake Maye in 2022. So the fact that there still isn’t any resolution in the current competition between transfer Johnson and returning backup Conner Harrell shouldn’t be taken as a troubling sign.

Then again, while Brown proclaimed this spring that “we feel like both of them can win today,” he still felt it necessary to bring back Criswell – the quarterback who pushed Maye until the week before the opening game – after a season at Arkansas.

Presumably, at least 2 of the 3 quarterbacks have yet to separate themselves enough to claim the position. That might be cause for concern among UNC fans on social media. But for Brown, the indecision is an encouraging sign.

“I think they’re both really good,” the Tar Heels coach said of Johnson and Harrell, adding that he also has confidence in Criswell. “Conner has played enough now that he gets it. Max has thrown 900 balls in the SEC. These guys have to step up and they can’t be Drake. They can’t be Sam. But we can be a better team. That’s what we’re working toward.”

Johnson, the son of Super Bowl-winning quarterback Brad Johnson, figured to have the inside track on the job after starting 22 games in 4 college seasons. He’s completed 60.5% of his passes for 5,852 yards and 47 touchdowns at LSU and most recently, A&M.

Harrell, who’s in his 3rd year in the program, completed 22-of-33 passes for 270 yards and 2 touchdowns through the air while running 75 yards and a score against West Virginia after Maye opted out of the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.

Regardless of who ends up taking the 1st snap against Minnesota on Aug. 29, there’s a good chance both if not all 3 of UNC’s quarterbacks end up playing at some point in the season.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: at Minnesota (L)

Collins’ new defense will be tested right away. Both on the ground and in the air. Returning running back Darius Taylor averaged 159 yards per game in 5 starts for the Gophers last year. Transfer quarterback Max Brosmer led the FCS in passing at New Hampshire in 2023.

Week 2: vs. Charlotte (W)

Hall of Fame coach against a guy named Biff. Advantage, Tar Heels.

Week 3: vs. NC Central (W)

Brown will be able to get all 3 of his quarterbacks into this guarantee game mismatch. And maybe even a walk-on or 2.

Week 4: vs. James Madison (W)

UNC beat JMU by 4 touchdowns the last time they played in 2016. But these aren’t your older brother’s Dukes. They won 11 games, beat Virginia and went to a bowl last year. The Tar Heels better bring their “A” game.

Week 5: at Duke (W)

From the Dukes to Duke. The Blue Devils couldn’t stop Omarion Hampton last year, when he ran for 169 yards in a double-overtime victory. They won’t be able to stop him again. The Victory Bell stays in Chapel Hill.

Week 6: vs. Pitt (W)

The Tar Heels beat the Panthers 42-24 in 2022 and 41-24 last year. Simple logic says they’ll win 40-24 this time.

Week 7: vs. Georgia Tech (L)

It doesn’t matter where the game is played. Or what the circumstances are. The Yellow Jackets own the Tar Heels, going 33-21-3 overall and winning 5 of the past 6. Even Geoff Collins was able to beat UNC. And he won only 10 times in his dismal 3½ seasons at Tech.

Week 8: Open

Week 9: at Virginia (L)

The Cavaliers haven’t been as big a thorn in the Tar Heels’ side. But it’s close. They’ve won 5 of the past 7 renewals of The South’s Oldest Rivalry, including last year in Chapel Hill. And QB Tony Muskett, who gave UNC fits in that game, is back.

Week 10: at Florida State (L)

The Tar Heels have won 2 out of their past 3 visits to Doak Campbell Stadium. They’ll be leaving Tallahassee with a loss this time.

Week 11: Open

Week 12: vs. Wake Forest (W)

This might be a football game. But the scoreboard will look more like it’s basketball. The average scores of the past 3 games between the in-state rivals, all won by the Tar Heels, has been 51-47.

Week 13: at Boston College (W)

It will be cold and the field could be messy. But that plays right into the hands of a team that can run the football. Have a day, Omarion Hampton.

Week 14: vs. NC State (L)

The Tar Heels couldn’t beat the Wolfpack during the past 3 seasons with Sam Howell or Drake Maye at quarterback. Unless Collins works miracles with UNC’s defense, they won’t have enough offense to avoid a 4th straight loss. Even in Chapel Hill, where State has won 4 of the past 5.

2024 projection: 7-5 (4-4)

#UNCommon

Having a star quarterback isn’t everything it’s cracked up to be.

Remember it was Tee Martin, not Peyton Manning, who led Tennessee to the national championship in 1998. And Cardale Jones was a 3rd-stringer before getting Ohio State to the mountaintop in 2014.

This is not to say that Max Johnson, Conner Harrell or Jacolby Criswell are going to accomplish what neither Drake Maye nor Sam Howell could by winning a championship at UNC.

Even just an ACC crown.

But it does mean that there’s hope for a successful season even without a record-setting passer pulling the trigger. Brown still has one of the league’s best offensive weapons at his disposal in Hampton. He’s beefed up his offensive line through the transfer portal and brought in a new coordinator to fix a broken defense.

The Tar Heels also have a manageable schedule that avoids conference contenders Clemson, Louisville, Miami and Virginia Tech. With no cross-country flights to California.

It’s a scenario that could potentially give them another shot at a breakthrough.

Maybe this time, the putt will fall.