Editor’s note: Saturday Down South previewed the 2024 ACC football season with its annual Crystal Ball prediction series, from which we selected the 10 biggest upsets. Here are the individual team previews:
Boston College | Cal | Clemson | Duke | FSU | Georgia Tech | Louisville | Miami | NC State | North Carolina | Pitt | SMU | Stanford | Syracuse | Virginia | Virginia Tech | Wake Forest … plus part-time ACC member Notre Dame
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Upsets come in 3 distinct varieties.
There are the average, everyday run-of-the-mill upsets. The kind that are determined by a point spread set by folks in Las Vegas. There are those in which the eye test tells us that the better team didn’t win.
Then there are those rare, “where-were-you-when” upsets people will talk about for years, such as Appalachian State stunning Michigan … in 2007.
You’d have a better shot at picking all 6 numbers of a PowerBall drawing than projecting when, where and why the 3rd variety will happen. And the odds are only slightly better when trying to predict the others. But that doesn’t stop us from trying to pick them.
Last year I hit 5 of my 10 upset predictions.
Break even.
At least it’s not a loss.
With any luck, I’ll come out on the winning side this year. We have several betting experts on staff, but as a public service, I don’t recommend running out to your favorite sportsbook and plunking down your hard-earned money on any of these picks.
Here goes …
10. Miami over Florida, Aug. 31
OK, so the oddsmakers say this is a pick-em game. But it’s an ACC team vs. an SEC team. At an SEC venue. And Miami has a long history of coming up small in big spots. So yes, this qualifies as an upset. The Gators need it to keep the heat off coach Billy Napier. The Hurricanes – and by proxy, the ACC – need it to justify their usual offseason hype. This one will come down to who can protect their quarterbacks the best. Because as well as both Cam Ward and Graham Mertz can sling it, it’s tough to throw the ball when you’re lying on your back. Florida gave up 39 sacks last year. Miami only 16. Advantage, Canes.
9. Virginia over SMU, Nov. 23
The Mustangs were good enough to win the American Athletic Conference last season. And a lot of that talent is back for their debut ACC season. But depth could be an issue. So could the grind of playing 10 consecutive power conference opponents, 7 more than they faced a year ago. There’s a good chance they’ll be worn down by the time Week 13 rolls around. On the road against a UVa team that could be playing to save coach Tony Elliott’s job, all the elements are there for an upset.
8. Syracuse over UNLV, Oct. 6
The Orange will have their work cut out for them against an up-tempo UNLV attack that averaged 34 points per game and won 9 games in 2023. This matchup will test the old football adage of “defense travels.” Just in case, ‘Cuse coach Fran Brown might also want to bring his offense on the trip to Sin City. And he has plenty of firepower at his disposal in the person of transfer quarterback Kyle McCord, running back LeQuint Allen, tight end Oronde Gadsden and a pair of transfer receivers he brought with him from Georgia.
7. Louisville over Kentucky, Nov. 30
The Cardinals have lost 5 consecutive Governor’s Cup matchups and 6 of the past 7. The streak should have ended last year at home, but it didn’t thanks to Louisville’s 4th-quarter meltdown. The Cardinals lost a lot of offensive firepower, but Jeff Brohm has replaced it with a large, talented haul of transfers. Led by 7th-year quarterback Tyler Shough. Even though the game will be played in Lexington, not Louisville, the Cardinals won’t let it slip away this time.
6. Virginia over North Carolina, Oct. 6
Scott Stadium is picturesque, but it isn’t the most intimidating venue for visiting teams. But for whatever the reason, it always seems to bring out the worst in the Tar Heels. The Cavaliers have won 5 of the past 7 renewals of The South’s Oldest Rivalry, including last year’s game in Chapel Hill. Quarterback Tony Muskett gave Mack Brown’s team fits that night. And he’s back.
5. Georgia Tech over North Carolina, Oct. 12
If you think UVa has UNC’s number, say hello to Georgia Tech. It doesn’t matter where the game is played or what the circumstances are. The Yellow Jackets own the Tar Heels. They’re 33-21-3 overall with wins in 5 of the past 6 meetings. Even Geoff Collins, who’s now UNC’s defensive coordinator, was able to beat Mack Brown’s team. And he won only 10 times in his 3½ seasons on The Flats.
4. Cal over Miami, Oct. 5
You can always count on Mario Cristobal and his enigmatic game management skills to cough up at least 1 winnable game a year. Exhibit A: Middle Tennessee State in 2022. Exhibit B: Georgia Tech and Kneegate last season. A cross-country trip against a team that has an All-American running back (Jaydn Ott), 8 returning starters on defense and a transfer class that was ranked among the top 5 nationally makes this the most likely candidate to become Exhibit C. And oh by the way, the Bears already know what it takes to beat a team led by Ward, having done it in Berkeley last year when the new Miami quarterback was with Washington State.
3. Virginia Tech over Clemson, Nov. 9
Brent Pry’s team has the highest percentage of returning production in the FBS. The Hokies have an abundance of talent from a team that picked up momentum late last season and a schedule that sets them up for success. Meanwhile, Cade Klubnik has a history of making bad decisions when pressured. And no one in the ACC puts more pressure on opposing quarterbacks than Antwaun Powell-Ryland and Tech’s talented defensive front. The folks in Blacksburg have been waiting more than a decade for an opportunity like this. The atmosphere is going to be off the charts. And they’re not going to be disappointed.
2. NC State over Tennessee at Charlotte, Sept. 7
Volunteers QB Nico Iamaleava will provide a stiff challenge for the Wolfpack’s veteran secondary. But if State’s offensive line can keep future 1st-round NFL Draft pick James Pearce Jr. out of its backfield, a Tennessee defense that lost 10 defensive backs to the transfer portal and draft will have just as big of a challenge against Grayson McCall, KC Concepcion and their new collection of offensive playmakers. It’s finally the Wolfpack’s time.
1. Georgia Tech over Florida State at Dublin, Ireland, Aug. 24
If there’s ever a time to catch the Seminoles this season, it’s early before all their transfers get on the same page. And the Yellow Jackets get the first crack. In an environment that can be as distracting to a football player as a cell phone in the hands of a driver behind the wheel in rush hour traffic. FSU will be the better team in the long run. But not today. With so many new players, communication – especially in the secondary – could be an issue for the ‘Noles. And Haynes King is plenty talented enough to take advantage of it.
Award-winning columnist Brett Friedlander has covered the ACC and college basketball since the 1980s.
