10 biggest questions (and answers) heading into Tennessee's fall camp
As one would expect, Tennessee heads into Jeremy Pruitt’s second season with plenty of rebuilding left. In case you haven’t been keeping up with the Vols over the past decade, their fall from grace has been quite dramatic.
Here are 10 questions and answers heading into fall camp:
1. How will the Vols use Jarrett Guarantano?
Despite being able to run, Guarantano seems like a quarterback better suited for the pocket. With his feet in the proper position, Guarantano’s accuracy improves as opposed to being on the run. However, moving Guarantano out of the pocket might be the best way to keep him out of harm’s way. It will be interesting to see how offensive coordinator Jim Chaney uses Guarantano’s skills.
As far as off the field, UT’s coaches should make Guarantano the face of the program. That’s certainly a load for a team that is still incredibly average at best. However, Guarantano proved he will say all the right things at SEC Media Days. The media won’t like Guarantano’s guarded nature, but that’s exactly what the Vols will need when the going get tough — as it most likely will.
2. What if Jauan Jennings stays healthy?
Having a healthy Jennings gives the Vols a formidable group at receiver. However, Jennings has had trouble staying out of the training room due to multiple injuries. Jennings’ ability to high-point a ball makes him a perfect receiver for Guarantano, who can struggle with his accuracy.
Combining a healthy Jennings with Marquez Callaway and Josh Palmer can be a very tough trio to defend.
3. Is Ty Chandler ready for a breakout year?
Chandler amassed 630 rushing yards and 183 receiving yards. Look for that latter number to improve — perhaps dramatically. Chandler has a special ability to catch the ball out of the backfield — even on a bad throw — and get up field quickly. That could be key if Guarantano finds himself in trouble.
The Vols have other tailbacks that have been productive, but none has the explosiveness of Chandler.
4. Will the Vols go young and inexperienced on the offensive line and, if so, how will they respond?
This seems to be a likely path up front. Freshmen Wanya Morris and Darnell Wright were projected as starters as soon as they committed to UT as 5-star prospects. They could be UT’s starting tackles. Transfer Brandon Kennedy isn’t young but has very little experience during his time at Alabama.
If the Vols go with a young and inexperienced offensive line, there will be issues with communication. However, if UT’s coaches go in that direction, it will be a clear indication that Morris and Wright have special talent to get on the field as freshmen.
5. What if Trey Smith is healthy enough to play?
If Smith is able to return to full health from blood clots that have sidelined him for much of the past 2 seasons, it would be huge for the Vols. Smith can play tackle or guard. That would give the Vols some flexibility — and the touted freshmen some relief. However, left guard seems like the most likely position if he returns.
Having Smith back on the field doesn’t mean he’ll be the same player that showed incredible flashes as a freshman. Smith’s conditioning could be an issue and it remains to be seen what kind of player he’ll be if he’s forced to continue to take medicine to control his blood clot issue.
6. Will defensive lineman Aubrey Solomon be eligible?
The Vols could certainly use Solomon, who transferred from Michigan in the offseason. He would provide depth and playmaking ability at a position in which the Vols could use some help. However, the NCAA seems intent on cracking down on transfers. That could hurt Solomon’s chances.
Solomon has proven he can be a play at a Power 5 school. He appeared in every game as a freshman at Michigan.
7. Will Darrell Taylor’s consistency show up?
Tennessee’s coaches moved Taylor from defensive end to linebacker. Maybe he’ll be more comfortable. Maybe he’ll be more consistent. Taylor recorded 8 sacks last season, but 7 occurred in two games. He also had only 11 tackles for loss despite the 8 sacks. At last check, the Vols have 12 games scheduled this season. It would be nice if Taylor would show up for more of them.
8. Will the Vols have the same confidence they had at SEC Media Days?
Taylor guaranteed the Vols would make a bowl game. Fellow linebacker Daniel Bituli said the Vols were close to competing for a championship level. There were plenty of good vibes in Hoover. Will that continue as tough coaching rains down on a team with plenty of areas of concern?
9. Will Tennessee make a bowl game?
Taylor guaranteed it, so it must be so, right? We’ll see. Missing a bowl game would have to be considered a significant failure if the Vols fall short this season. It was obvious that Pruitt was upset about not making a bowl game last season. He’ll be even more frustrated if UT misses another bowl game with a much easier schedule. Fans certainly won’t appreciate being excluded from the postseason once again. It would mark the third consecutive season without a bowl trip, matching the postseason drought from 2011-13.
10. Will UT’s coaches be on the same page?
Clearly, Pruitt didn’t like the offense that former offensive coordinator Tyson Helton dialed up last year. If UT’s coaching staff isn’t on the same page in 2019, then that could undermine Pruitt’s tenure longterm. Just ask former UT coach Derek Dooley about that. It’s certainly worth noting that the Vols will have new play callers on each side of the ball. Derrick Ansley will handle the play-calling duties on defense. Jim Chaney will handle that job on offense.
Another mediocre at best year on the docket for Vols fans.. after all the money they spent.. they just can’t catch a break.. sad!
yeah we will probably be competing with SC for the 3rd, 4th or 5th spot in the east. That is sad. But at least its not our best team…That’s a plus.
The level of hubris of SC fans is confusing, particularly given that FPI, the media, Vegas, and a plurality of non-SC fans believe a 6-7 win year is likely.
UT is certainly in for a mediocre season by historical standards, but should hit the 7 win mark, barring catastrophic injury. Not sure what $ is referring to, but there have been zero recruiting improprieties documented.
Don’t go whistling past the graveyard with that Trump grammar.
I thought the money comment was referring to overall program expenditures, perhaps coaching salaries and Chaney’s specifically.
1. Incorrect-the FPI and closely predictive Vegas betting models are accurate over multiple years. This accuracy requires continued accuracy in future events, that is the nature of why they are used and why sports gambling generates billions of dollars of revenue. To state past predictive ability won’t be relevant in the future is to say that the model will somehow fail this season, despite being proved otherwise multiple times. Until you can prove that, the historical accuracy precedents stand. I’ve got billions of dollars in casino revenues (and the millions of related betting transactions), along with 780 yearly football games via FPI that back up my argument. Show me where FPI or Vegas fail this year analytically or empirically, because that’s your assertion in this argument.
2. This is a false equivalency. Paul’s success rate was 10 of 12 games, which is an incredibly small sample size compared to the 780 games Vegas and FPI predict. This argument ignores the statistical theorem known as gambler’s ruin, which states that small sample sizes can be skewed, but statistically relevant sample sizes will return to the correct probability (50/50).
3. I don’t know how I can make it clearer that a model can’t account for all assumptions; however, the accuracy of said model is indeed very impacted by said assumptions. As it retains its accuracy in spite of said assumptions, the model remains valid. Show me a predictive model better than FPI and Vegas with a similar sample size (i.e. no magic animal fallacy). You can’t. Again, you state this predictive rate is somehow less than acceptable, but you fail to note an otherwise superior model with an equal or greater sample size.
What’s confusing is the hubris of Vols fan boasting talking points from data that changes weekly to predict where they will finish at the end of the season before the games are played, one source of which had TN finishing 12-0 in year 3 of the Lyle Jones era.
We already had this argument, which you lost. The data supported FPI as being only less accurate than the Vegas midweek and adjusted lines in predictive power, as documented by the neutral site I cited which tracks such data. Your argument continues to rely on anecdotal evidence and your self-described “gut-feelings” as noted above. Come back when you’ve got empirical evidence to back up your assertions.
If you feel slighted, tell your fellow fan to not come trolling, as you’ve done.
Lost, lol go back and read, first off we won’t know who lost that argument until October, second, my evidence relies on recent factual evidence not just a predictive measurement, that is at best 75% right on a 50/50 platform which is less reliable than an actual octopus and a cat at predicting outcomes of sporting events that are a 50/50 platform. Speaking of FPI, just because you are too ignorant or arrogant to accept that it fails to include measurements like lost production due to injuries, doesn’t change the fact that the FPI does not include those measures. Also quoting ESPN about the ESPN FPI is not exactly a neutral source, but it doesn’t matter because like I said when dealing with predictions there is no poof to overrule another’s argument, its all predictions, Finally it’s not trolling if you are calling out SC fans as a whole when responding to one fan.
1. “Lost lol”-regardless of the outcome of a singular event, FPI is still the third best predictive model per Thepredictiontracker’s site. Again, you fail to grasp or articulate a rebuttal as to how statistically evidenced empirical data trumps a one-time anecdotal event.
2. You’re creating a strawman by referencing two animals without supporting data on their predictive abilities. Per the prediction tracker model ranking, the Vegas adjusted line is 73.6% accurate, which is less than the arbitrary 75% you elect. As this is the gold standard of predictive computer modeling, the FPI rate of 73.1% is still relevant as it’s quite close to that.
3. FPI preseason can’t predict injuries, but the season ending 73.1% accuracy would indicate that injuries on the whole aren’t impactful. Nor are alien invasions or whatever other assumptions the model ignores. Wrong again.
5. I didn’t cite espn as a source, I cited the third party source mentioned above. Unless you can refute their data, it’s valid and superior to your arguments (a strawman re: cats and octopi).
5. Your comment was in defense of an obvious troll comment.
1. Lost- You failed to prove how the Preseason FPI can successfully predict a game that hasn’t taken place yet.
2. Paul the Octopus had a 85.7% success rate at predicting outcomes of a sporting event on a 50/50 platform. Achilles the Cat had an even higher percentage.
3. FPI doesn’t take account for last seasons lost production from injuries, which is highly flawed. But while you mention preseason FPI and the current season, then let’s look at those flaws as well, weather, injuries, roster (will players like Trey Smith even be there, the FPI doesn’t account for Tavien Feaster’s production as he wasn’t a gamecock during the sims, etc) it also fails to account for team chemistry, coaching , luck, etc too many variables are left out, and 73% on a 50/50 platform is not impressive. Being third best at something doesn’t classify it as being reputable if the numbers fail to suggest it.
4. You originally sited ESPN but ok moving on. Per an article by David Roe of CMS Wire, showcases Dr. Lyu”s and others arguments of the many flaws with predictive analytics and sports, you can check it out it’s titled, “Why a Cat May Be Better Than Predictive Analytics in Picking World Cup Winners,” and before you argue “that’s soccer,” the research is solid on all available predictive algorithms and explains why a definitive outcome can not be made with out other variables.
5. My comment was directed at you and your comment attacking SC fans, not in defense of anyone.
See below
How will they use G? is that really a question. he hasn’t been an RPO Qb since he got here. Its probably what Jones would have tried but he never got much of a chance at it. He is and will be a pro style QB now, who can run a bit to get out of trouble if needed and on purpose occasionally.
I think we have a pretty darn good group at WR regardless of Jennings health but we are certainly much better with him healthy. Of course you can say that about every player on the starting units.
I think Ty will have a big year too but we have some depth and some quality so not sure how much bigger unless some of that depth and quality doesn’t show up. Also gray will get some chances and if he shows some of what we saw on high school film he may end up stealing a lot of minutes.
I think Morris has locked up one tackl;e spot, barring injury or something. Darnell may be a ? but I bet we do indeed start two freshman tackles.We have some other good linemen too. Trey coming back is one thing but coming back in the form he was as a freshman is something else. They say he is in the best shape of his life but it takes games to get into game shape. For his sake I hope he puts his health first. Love to see him out there but not at the expense of his health or even life! If he plays he may be the face of the program. I think the team takes a solid step forward with a minimum of 6-7 wins and solid play for all or 12 games. Next season is where we start seeing bigger dividends. Hoping for a bowl game is painful for me but its where we are. I want to hope for a championship and I think we could be there soon.
In the last 33 years, my beloved Kentucky Wildcats have beat Tennessee TWICE!
So the really question is will the Vols be able to keep from being one of he teams we know ‘own’ like Florida.
Time will tell.
Now you’re starting to sound like a Dawg fan. You win one or two games and suddenly you “own” Florida.
52-43-2 says UGA owns Florida.
“Sorry but you see way more UGA fans constantly talking about the Gators, then you see Gator fans talking about UGA. There’s several Dawg fans on this website alone,
that can’t seem to post a comment period without mentioning them.”
Funny Stuff.
November 9. Meo Mio’s. Be there. Loser picks up the tab
Can I plus 1 and have my tab paid by either loser?
I think you meant “now” not know. You must be a Kentucky alum
It’ll be really interesting to see what sorts of plays Jim Chaney calls. You always got the knock for being too conservative at Georgia, but that could well have been dictated from above.
Seems like Chaney sometimes got a bum rap from fans. You can always find specific plays that don’t make much since (the fourth down sweep with McKenzie vs. Vandy in 2015), but his last couple of teams at UGA were ranked very high in conference.
Guarantano is my 2nd favorite QB in the SEC. He’s smart, athletic, poised and tough. But if he has to play with possibly 3 freshman starters on the OL, he better learn to slide.
Only two frosh. Huuuge difference (kidding of course). The other linemen are not bad. Just not as highly touted. They are young but now have experience and a full year in the S&C program. I really think they will be fine but only time will tell.
Hey D.A. Dave Hooker. What was JG’s completion % and INT’s last season?
Look it up fool and you will see accuracy isn’t an issue for him.
11. Will Tennessee get to 6 wins followed by a Dollar General Bowl invitation.
12. Will Fulmer consider stopping the non-rivalry game with Alabama?
Will 70 ever post anything he didn’t write down crayon first.
Test
1. Incorrect-the FPI and closely predictive Vegas betting models are accurate over multiple years. This accuracy requires continued accuracy in future events, that is the nature of why they are used and why sports gambling generates billions of dollars of revenue. To state past predictive ability won’t be relevant in the future is to say that the model will somehow fail this season, despite being proved otherwise multiple times. Until you can prove that, the historical accuracy precedents stand. I’ve got billions of dollars in casino revenues (and the millions of related betting transactions), along with 780 yearly football games via FPI that back up my argument. Show me where FPI or Vegas fail this year analytically or empirically, because that’s your assertion in this argument.
You fail to prove that 73% where the outcome is 50/50 is successful, I gave you data from multiple Phd’s that backs that up. The said revenues and success rate of Vegas comes from weekly changes not just preseason so you are stretching the truth.
The accuracy of the entire season includes preseason. The data proves this as it’s for the entire season
Again 73 % of a 50/50 model is less accurate than a guessing Octopus or deaf cat, 73% on a 50/50 model is not impressive at all, you fail to prove otherwise.
2. This is a false equivalency. Paul’s success rate was 10 of 12 games, which is an incredibly small sample size compared to the 780 games Vegas and FPI predict. This argument ignores the statistical theorem known as gambler’s ruin, which states that small sample sizes can be skewed, but statistically relevant sample sizes will return to the correct probability (50/50).
It’s not a false equivalency, also if you research it you will see humans (a huge proponent of Vegas odds) have a higher success rate than algorithms like FPI.
It is because the sample size is vastly smaller. Prove gambler’s ruin isn’t at play here. Again, I can’t help that you don’t understand basic statistical concepts that are a necessary component to debate statistics and evidence.
I can’t help that you don’t understand that your flawed predictive equation lacks important basic mathematics skills like variables, prove that FPI has better predictive win percentage than an Octopus in a 50/50 model.
3. I don’t know how I can make it clearer that a model can’t account for all assumptions; however, the accuracy of said model is indeed very impacted by said assumptions. As it retains its accuracy in spite of said assumptions, the model remains valid. Show me a predictive model better than FPI and Vegas with a similar sample size (i.e. no magic animal fallacy). You can’t. Again, you state this predictive rate is somehow less than acceptable, but you fail to note an otherwise superior model with an equal or greater sample size.
It doesn’t account for all necessarily data to make assumptions, hence its flawed. Predictive models as a whole are not a sure thing, again see my argument above you do not disprove it with this statement.
The season long % prediction includes all variables by virtue of the fact that wins and losses across the season incorporate the assumptions that can’t be modeled, such as specific injuries.
This makes no sense, as there is no way to factor in production lost by injuries, which is a considerable reason why predictive algorithms are flawed, hence too many variables that it lacks.
4. Dr Lyu’s study doesn’t factor in sample size if he’s stating a coin flip event outpaces Vegas and FPI. Very surprising a PhD doesn’t understand how sample size is relevant in statistics. Prove to me that it’s not in a coin flip event vs an analytical model backed by billions of dollars in revenue and a third party verified site.
Dr Lyu’s studies are very sound, prove the data wrong, and again you are basing the monetary evidence by algorithms that change weekly and even hourly.
Again-on you to prove an article titled “Might” incorporates equal or greater sample sizes. Burden of proof is on you to disprove FPI and Vegas line efficacy across similar sample sizes. Hint-10 of 12 isn’t the same as 73% of 740+. Is that math comprehendable?
Again you missed the point. Sample size doesn’t matter if your equation lacks the necessary variables. Also, the fact remains the Octopus has a higher percentage of being correct than FPI in a 50/50 setting, you cannot disprove that fact.
5. My comment was directed at a troll, which you defended.
Reread your quote it was to SC fans, I’m a SC fan.
Sorry you somehow took it personally. Why would someone without an “inferiority complex”, as you allege I have, feel so offended?
I’m not offended at all, I simply replied to your ridiculous allegation.
6. It’s difficult to have a convo when you either don’t have a basic understanding of statistics or choose to ignore basic principles, such as anecdotal vs empirical evidence and sample size in building strawman arguments. Final argument, show me a model with a better success rate over a similar sample size and I’ll buy it or prove to me how Vegas and FPI will both fail this season.
It’s difficult to have a debate with you because you fail to comprehend the most basic of arguments. If you are confident in 73% success rate of a flawed algorithm for a 50/50 system, congrats it doesn’t make you right or wrong, it just fuels your belief. I choose not to take the flawed algorithm and it’s mediocre results as a whole, I also acknowledged the presence of outside variables such as sports psych, weather, injuries, coaching, rosters, and recent historic patterns pertaining to the said rosters in account. You have inferior complex where you constantly try to claim some sort of “victory,” while failing to acknowledge the flaws in your argument.
*an
Please note the one you allege has a complex doesn’t delve into USC articles to locate perceived slights to respond to (aka you).
I simply read this as I have all of 10 things series and your accusation was too easy to respond to considering the irony, I really could care less what article it was.
“You have an inferior complex”, yet you keep responding as well. Project much?
I keep shutting your laughable arguments down but the fact you have referenced the inferiority complex comment three times now is very telling.