Home > News > College Football > Alabama vs. Tennessee preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Alabama vs. Tennessee preview: Betting trends, advanced stats analysis

Published: Jan 20, 2024 · 9:00 AM EST

Alabama will travel to Knoxville to face Tennessee on Saturday in a game between a pair of SEC contenders.

Both the Crimson Tide and Volunteers are firmly in the mix for the SEC regular season title at this point in the year. Alabama enters this game with a perfect 4-0 record in SEC play while Tennessee isn’t far behind at 3-1.

Let’s break down this matchup:

Alabama vs. Tennessee Betting Odds

Spread: Tennessee -5.5 (DraftKings)

Total: Over/Under 157 points (DraftKings)

Betting trends to know for Alabama

Alabama is…

10-7 against the spread
2-2 against the spread as an underdog
2-1 against the spread on the road
2-0 against the spread as a road underdog
3-1 against the spread in SEC play
1-2 against the spread vs. ranked opponents

Alabama has been solid against the spread this season, but there isn’t much of a sample size for betting on the Tide as an underdog or on the road. Overall, Alabama has beaten the number in 6 of its last 8 games. Alabama was the underdog in 3 of those 8 games and covered the spread in 2 of them (against Creighton and Mississippi State).

Betting trends to know for Tennessee

Tennessee is…

7-9-1 against the spread
5-3-1 against the spread at home
7-6-1 against the spread as a favorite
5-3-1 against the spread as a home favorite
2-2 against the spread in SEC play

The Volunteers have beaten the number in just 3 of their past 9 games. They’ve struggled in this spot specifically all season long. They’re 1-7 against the spread when favored by single digits or an underdog of any amount. The vast majority of Tennessee’s work ATS this season has come when it’s a double-digit favorite against an over-matched opponent.

3 notes for the game

The advanced metrics are more bullish on Alabama than the polls

Alabama just missed out on making this a top-25 matchup this week as it carries a 12-5 record into this game. However, the Crimson Tide have the statistical profile of a top-25 team — or perhaps even top-10. Alabama is the No. 7 team in the country entering this matchup according to KenPom. It also boasts the nation’s No. 1 offense, per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metric.

BartTorvik is even more bullish on the Crimson Tide. That site has Alabama ranked No. 5 nationally — one spot above Tennessee — behind 4 other powerhouses: Houston, Purdue, Arizona and Auburn. Alabama is also No. 5 in the NET as it prepares to face the Vols.

It is worth noting why Alabama is not in the top-25 at this point in the season — its record against great teams. The Crimson Tide are just 2-5 against teams ranked in KenPom’s top-50. Those victories came against Indiana State and Mississippi State. The win over the Bulldogs, which came on the road, is Alabama’s only Quad 1 win over a Power-6 opponent this season.

Alabama has won 6 straight games and will almost certainly be in the AP Poll next week if it beats Tennessee on Saturday. They did receive votes in last week’s poll, but just missed out on cracking the top 25.

Alabama’s offense vs. Tennessee’s defense

The reason for Alabama’s high-level of offensive efficiency is simple: This is arguably the most-effective 3-point shooting team in the country. The Crimson Tide have made 39.7% of their 3-point shots this season, which ranks No. 5 nationally. But Alabama also takes an incredibly-high volume of 3-pointers — 48.1% of its field goal attempts are from beyond long range. Per KenPom, that ranks 11th in the country.Out of 362 Division 1 teams, only Indiana State makes a higher percentage of its 3-pointers on a higher volume than Alabama. Of course, Alabama is also very efficient from 2-point range and from the free throw line. The Tide rank in the top-15 of both of those categories as well.

As efficient as Alabama’s offense is, Tennessee’s defense might be just as good — if not better. Defensively, the Vols rank No. 2 nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric. Tennessee also guards the 3-point line quite well. It has limited opponents to making just 30.8% of its long-range attempts this season, which ranks in the top-40 nationally.

Tennessee’s biggest strength on defense is from 2-point range, however. The Vols limit teams to just 41.9% shooting from inside the arc, which ranks No. 2 nationally. Tennessee’s defense is anchored by big man Jonas Aidoo, who averages 1.6 blocks and 0.8 steals per game. Aidoo is also a force on the glass with an offensive rebounding rate of 13.7% and a defensive rebounding rate of 20.3%.

March Madness is right around the corner! If you want to get in on the action, here’s everything you should know about the best sports betting apps available for 2024.

Dalton Knecht has been unstoppable

The biggest reason for Tennessee’s offensive improvement this season is Dalton Knecht. The former Northern Colorado transfer has developed into one of the top scorers in the country and is red-hot entering this game against the Tide. Knecht is averaging a staggering 34.3 points per game over his last 3 contests and he’s doing so with a true shooting percentage north of 71%.

If Knecht gets going, there won’t be much that Alabama can do to stop him. Aside from a mid-season slump that was seemingly due to an ankle injury, Knecht has been one of the best players in college basketball all season. However, the Vols have lost games this season even when Knecht delivered a strong performance. He scored 37 in a loss to North Carolina and 28 in a loss to Mississippi State.

The rest of Tennessee’s offense is capable of having big nights, but no one has scored efficiently on a consistent basis. Three other Tennessee rotation players have a usage rate of at least 20% this season. Of that group, only Knecht has a true shooting percentage north of 56%. Jordan Gainey in-particular has been a drain on the offense this season as he’s posted a true shooting percentage of only 43.7%.

There’s also the matter of Santiago Vescovi, who is in the midst of a down year. The veteran guard is attempting a career-low 5.9 field goals per game despite being one of the most consistent volume 3-point shooters in the SEC over the past few seasons. His efficiency (54.9% true shooting percentage) is also the lowest it’s been since his freshman year.

When Tennessee is at its best, it’s also getting good offensive performances from players such as Zakai Zeigler and Josiah-Jordan James. Despite some inefficiencies from the rest of Tennessee’s offense, the Vols still rank No. 21 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency per KenPom. That speaks to how good Knecht has been as an offensive engine this season — and to how dangerous he is for the Crimson Tide on Saturday.

1 pick for this game

Dalton Knecht over 26.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115). I don’t see a significant edge on the side or total for this game, so I’m going with this Knecht prop (via DraftKings). Knecht is averaging 27.8 points per game against SEC opponents so far this season, so he may hit this number with points alone against the Tide. And while his shooting percentages are bound to come back down to earth at some point, there’s just too many ways for Knecht to get to 27 points + rebounds + assists in this spot. Knecht is also averaging 5 rebounds per game in SEC play and is dishing out 1.1 assists per SEC contest as well. Alabama plays at a high tempo (top 40 nationally per KenPom) which means more possessions for Knecht to get to this number. Given Knecht’s recent hot streak, I think this is a very fair price to take the over.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.