ESPN's FPI predicts outcome of every remaining game on Tennessee's schedule
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has updated its projections for the remainder of Tennessee’s 2024 season.
Tennessee is entering Week 5 with an impressive 4-0 record on the season. The Vols already have a pair of power-conference wins and are 1-0 in SEC play after beating Oklahoma 25-15 in Norman this past weekend.
Here’s how FPI is viewing Tennessee’s chances to win each of its remaining games:
- Oct. 5: at Arkansas — 81.1% (previously: 74.7%)
- Oct. 12: vs. Florida — 91.2% (previously: 70.2%)
- Oct. 19: vs. Alabama — 54.2% (previously: 42.2%)
- Nov. 2: vs. Kentucky — 91.1% (previously: 79.5%)
- Nov. 9: vs Mississippi state — 96.1% (previously: 83.6%)
- Nov. 16: at Georgia — 44.8% (previously: 21%)
- Nov. 23: vs. UTEP — 99% (previously: 95.9%)
- Nov. 30: at Vanderbilt — 89.2% (previously: 85.1%)
As you can see, FPI is much more bullish on Tennessee now than it was back in August before the start of the season. The Vols’ chances to win have increased — sometimes significantly — in each of their remaining games.
Per FPI, Tennessee is projected to win approximately 6.5 of its remaining 8 games. That means, in addition to the 4 games the Vols have already won, FPI now expects Tennessee to reach double-digit victories in 2024. Before the season, FPI projected Tennessee to win 8.6 games during the 2024 regular season.
That would presumably be enough for Tennessee to reach the College Football Playoff for the first time in program history in 2024. Tennessee is currently -350 to make the CFP this season, per the latest odds from FanDuel.
Tennessee will be in action again in Week 6 when it plays at Arkansas.
If UT wins the games the FPI projects them to, it will be a great season. Hopefully this team is different (and so far appears to be) and they don’t lay an egg against an opponent they are supposed to beat.
Hope that egg hatches in Fayetteville
Very, very doubtful though!
Any SEC team can beat their SEC opponent on any given weekend.
Smashed that UTEP Number!
The pendulum is swinging like our Big D-line.
Yeah, it’s a good sign, without a doubt, because they’ve been slow to come around for Tennessee. I think they’re right, of course. The danger here is that any of these SEC teams can pop you if you don’t come out ready to play. So, Tennessee is getting respect now, and that means they have a new potential enemy- overconfidence. So long as this team continues living by the maxims Heupel emphasizes, it will be a great season. There is no doubt, the talent is here and the ability is here. So, one game at a time, keep working hard, keep improving, week by week, which is exactly what Heupel said in the locker room to his team after that OK win. So, walk the walk and keep winning.
Kensucky should by 99.99% regardless of either team’s rosters or record, until proven otherwise because we know Kensucky always chokes like their qb Will Levis.
By that same reasoning, Florida should be 49.9% or less until TN gets 3+ straight wins
oskie, I definitely agree on Kentucky. I don’t think they can score enough points on UT to beat them in Knoxville. Regarding Florida, I wish I could argue with you. It has always seemed like they find a way to beat Tennessee, even when the Vols have the edge in talent. But I will say this- I like the fact that the Florida game is not the first conference game of the season anymore. I think it helps. It shouldn’t make a difference, but it seems in year’s past that game is so early, the Gators have not been exposed yet and they come into the game brimming with confidence (even when they shouldn’t have any) and they perform over their heads. So, with the game being later, I feel like the psychology of the game works more in UT’s favor. As I say, it shouldn’t matter, but I think it does.
Now is the time to exorcise that demon
Alabama is the underdog right now. A good motivation tool for Coach DeBoer.
Wow I’m surprised we swung over 50% with Alabama. Take that all with a grain of salt though. Bama and UGA are the kings until they’re dethroned.
Alabama is the underdog right now. A good motivation tool for Coach DeBoer.