ESPN's FPI predicts the outcome of every game on Tennessee's 2024 schedule
Tennessee is now less than 1 week away from kicking off the 2024 season against Chattanooga.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has updated its win probability projections for all 12 of Tennessee’s regular-season games. The Vols’ 2024 slate includes 8 SEC contests as well as nonconference matchups against Chattanooga, NC State, Kent State and UTEP.
Here are FPI’s win probability projections for every Tennessee game in 2024:
- Aug. 31: vs. Chattanooga — 99%
- sept. 7: vs. NC State (in Charlotte) — 69.8%
- Sept. 14: vs. Kent State — 98.5%
- Sept. 21: at Oklahoma — 40.3%
- Oct. 5: at Arkansas — 74.7%
- Oct. 12: vs. Florida — 70.2%
- Oct. 19: vs. Alabama — 42.2%
- Nov. 2: vs. Kentucky — 79.5%
- Nov. 9: vs Mississippi state — 83.6%
- Nov. 16: at Georgia — 21%
- Nov. 23: vs. UTEP — 95.9%
- Nov. 30: at Vanderbilt — 85.1%
Tennessee is entering the year with College Football Playoff aspirations, and it’s not too hard to see why. The Vols are heavily favored in all but 3 of their games in 2024. The only exceptions are at Oklahoma, vs. Alabama and at Georgia.
Playing in Athens is always going to be tough, but matchups against the Sooners and Crimson Tide are certainly winnable if Tennessee plays well. Splitting those matchups could be enough to reach the College Football Playoff in 2024, provided there are no other slip-ups along the way.
However, FPI’s projections show just 8.6 expected wins for the Vols entering the year. With that in mind, Tennessee would likely have to significantly out-perform those expectations in order to get into the CFP conversation.
Tennessee’s regular-season win total over at FanDuel is currently set at 8.5. The Vols are also +195 to make the College Football Playoff in 2024, per the latest numbers from FanDuel.
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Tennessee and Chattanooga will kick off at 12:45 p.m. ET on Saturday afternoon.
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I feel sorry for anyone who has to play us. We are picked 8th in the SEC. If you beat Tennessee, you were supposed to. If you lose, well…..
But this is the new CFP. One loss, even two doesn’t hurt you, especially in the SEC. Time to think if the regular season more like the NFL.
Agreed. UT goes 10-2 they make the playoffs.
Yeah but that isn’t happening. The Vols just aren’t very good
Why? The Vols are an easy W for quality teams.
Tennessee homers are so predictable. Every year they talk smack until reality sets in
certain losses include
Oklahoma
Alabama
Georgia
NC State
Toss ups
Miss State
Kentucky
Florida
You lose all credibility when you put NCST as certain loss when UT has a 70% chance of winning the game. When you’re a team between 4-8th best in your conference all those are toss ups.
I would probably put Tennessee at 9-3 and will probably miss out on playoffs because there will be a 10-2 team from the ACC or big 10 that doesn’t make the conference championship that will get penciled ahead of them because they play in a softer conference and their win loss will be better
You forgot to blame the refs and someone giving your signs to the oposing teams and whatever else you pull out of your kiester. You won’t make the playoff because 4+ loss teams don’t…and the Vols just aren’t very good.
Kinds like y’all blame injuries and refs everytime bama thumps you?
And if they do it a bunch more times maybe we too can do the 1-15 thing too!
Or maybe you’ll get 15 straight losses against Georgia too! I mean if not when you are number 1, when?
Dawgs2021; serious question. Why do you spend so much time being insecure on Tennessee articles? Your team is going to be great and Tennessee has a legit shot to go 10-2 and reach the playoffs. If you’re going to troll, at least be funny and original.