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The Fearless Prediction enjoyed a stress free weekend (facing Mississippi State helps), but the good times don’t last forever. The biggest game of the year has arrived. Tennessee versus Georgia.
The Dawgs are favored by 10.5 points, via DraftKings Sportsbook.
This rivalry dates back to 1899, but it has only been an annual matchup since the conference expanded in 1992. While the Vols had the upper hand in the 1990s, most recently it has been a series dominated by the Dawgs. Georgia has won the past 7 matchups, with none of those games closer than 14 points.
Is Tennessee ready to turn things around? Well, defensively this group has proven it can hang with any opponent. The Vols have played 9 games, and still haven’t allowed an opponent to reach 20 points.
The Vols give up only 271.6 yards and 12.6 points per game, 5th-best in the FBS in each category. They might only be in a tie for 29th in turnovers gained, but those seem to come at just the right time. James Pearce Jr.’s forced fumble and recovery late in the opening half against Florida was a season-defining moment. Joshua Josephs’ forced fumble in the third quarter against Kentucky turned around that game. Will Brooks’ INT against Alabama sealed Tennessee’s biggest win of the year.
If Tennessee is going to pull the upset in Athens, they’ll probably need to force a few turnovers. Georgia is willing to provide opponents a few breaks, coughing up the football 15 times already, 91st-worst in the nation.
Carson Beck has thrown 12 interceptions — more than any Georgia QB in the Kirby Smart era. He’s also thrown at least 1 interception in each of the past 4 games.
Offensively the Vols are probably always going to be compared to that historically potent 2022 team, which does a disservice to the teams that follow. This offense racks up 471.6 yards of offense per game (8th-best in FBS) and 37.6 points per game (15th-best in FBS). Not bad!
RB Dylan Sampson is the best player on a top-10 team that few people are talking about nationally when it comes to individual awards. He now has 1,129 rushing yards (125.4 yards per game) and 20 TDs — extending his program record and becoming just the 10th SEC player to hit 20 in a season. He’s been nothing short of spectacular, and the Vols will go as far as he can lead them. That said, his fumbles in the past 3 games are worrisome.
The status of QB Nico Iamaleava is a serious concern, and likely explains the higher-than-expected betting line. He was held out of the 2nd half of the Mississippi State game for what was described at the time as an upper body injury.
Upper body injury? What is this, hockey?
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel said after the MSU game that he anticipated Iamaleava being ready to go against UGA. Subsequent reports had Iamaleava listed as being in concussion protocol. If Iamaleava can’t go, it would be up to backup Gaston Moore, who completed 5 of his 8 passes against Mississippi State. The Vols didn’t need him to do anything extra … but that won’t get the job done against Georgia.
UT’s special teams showed signs of life against Mississippi State, with the best bounce back coming from PK Max Gilbert. After missing 4-of-5 FGA’s against Alabama and Kentucky, Gilbert drilled each of his 4 FGAs against MSU, including a 51-yarder. Kickers are traditionally … different. Gilbert let out an emphatic fist punch following his FG at the end of the half against those Bulldogs. Seeing his confidence rise is a good sign.
Is Georgia a confident football team? Well, coming off a 28-10 drubbing at Ole Miss, it sure doesn’t look like it. UGA QB Carson Beck was supposed to be a Heisman Trophy favorite, but has looked very average this season. Beck has thrown 9 (of his 12) interceptions in the past 4 games.
Georgia is ranked 50th in total offense at 410.6 yards per game and is tied for 48th in scoring offense at 30.6 points per game. They have playmakers, including RB Trevor Etienne and WR Dillon Bell, but this UGA offense doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of opponents like they did in year’s past.
Defensively the Bulldogs are very good: 13th in the FBS in total defense, allowing 306.4 yards per game and tied for 16th nationally in scoring defense, giving up 18.4 points per game. LB CJ Allen and DB Malaki Starks are tied for the team lead at 49 tackles apiece. This will be a stern test for the Vols.
Playing at home squarely favors the Dawgs and will challenge UT’s communication on offense. Georgia hasn’t lost a game at Sanford Stadium since 2019, a streak of 29 straight victories. Due to quirks in the schedule, Georgia hasn’t played a home game in 5 weeks, while the Vols haven’t played a road game in 6 weeks. Athens will be loud on Saturday night.
The Vols remain a work in progress in hostile environments under Heupel. They are 7-8 in true road games since he took over in 2021.
It’s possible that Tennessee still makes the Playoff even if they lose in Athens, but this feels a lot like a play-in game for both teams. Entering this weekend’s action, 7 SEC teams have 2 or fewer losses and right now Tennessee’s strength of schedule isn’t as good as much of their conference competition.
The Vols understand that they control their own fate. Win out and they’ll make the Playoff field of 12, plus earn a spot in the SEC title game for the first time in 17 seasons. Georgia knows that with 3 losses, its chances of inclusion in the Playoff are slim.
The Vols’ defense has been lights out this season, and will make life difficult for the struggling Beck. But there’s just too much uncertainty with regards to Iamaleava to pick Tennessee here.
Fearless Prediction time …
Georgia 23, Tennessee 14
Mark Nagi has covered Tennessee athletics for over 20 years. He is the author of “Decade of Dysfunction,” an in-depth look at all that led to the crazy coaching search of 2017 at Tennessee. The book is available on Amazon.
