O'Gara: Mississippi State manhandled a Tennessee team that's now facing a historic uphill March climb

When Dalton Knecht came off a screen at the top of the key and effortlessly knocked down his first points of the SEC Tournament, the ESPN cameras cut to a Tennessee fan in overalls who imitated the shooting motion and appeared to say, “it’s so easy.”

By day’s end, nothing could be further from the truth for Knecht and the top-seeded Vols in Nashville. Mississippi State made sure of it.

The Bulldogs, who were firmly on the NCAA Tournament bubble entering the week, shouldn’t have anything to sweat out on Selection Sunday. Not after they manhandled Tennessee so badly that any thought of a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament was a distant thought for Rick Barnes’ squad. Instead of the regular-season champs sweeping the SEC with a run through Nashville, if anything, the Vols looked more exposed than inspired.

Does that mean the Vols will be fine in the NCAA Tournament and an early exit will yield fresh legs? It’s possible, but history is against that.

Somewhere between Cam Lewis dunking on the entire state of Tennessee and Josh Hubbard having his way against SEC Defensive Player of the Year Zakai Zeigler, Jimmy Dykes mentioned a daunting stat on the ESPN broadcast. No team has ever lost its first game in the conference tournament and gone on to win a national title.

Yikes.

On one hand, it’s hard to say a program that’s never been to the Final Four has legitimate national title aspirations. On the other hand, having a veteran-laden squad with an All-American shooting star transfer like Knecht set the bar on a different level than normal.

There’s another daunting stat. It’s not just that Tennessee lost consecutive games entering the NCAA Tournament after trying to lock down a 1-seed. Think about this: The last time an SEC team missed out on a conference championship berth and reached the Final Four was 2006 LSU.

Double yikes.

That’s without considering Barnes’ well-documented March struggles. Even after last year, wherein the Vols upset Duke and reached the Sweet 16, it’s fair to say that. It was Barnes’ first time beating a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2008. History is working against the Vols there, too.

By halftime on Friday, it had to feel all too familiar for Barnes. Down 38-19 at the break after surrendering a 28-6 points in the paint advantage for Mississippi State, he told ESPN’s Marty Smith that he hadn’t seen his team play like that all year. The closest example, ironically enough, was that Jan. 10 matchup against Mississippi State. (The Vols lost that game 77-72.) They led the broadcast by talking about how different each team was since that matchup 2 months ago, and by halftime, they pointed out that Tennessee’s 2 worst first halves of the season both came against Chris Jans’ squad.

It’s possible that even as a double-digit underdog via DraftKings, Mississippi State was just a bad matchup for Tennessee. The Bulldogs’ length gave Tennessee all sorts of problems. It wasn’t just making life difficult on Knecht by chasing and doubling him. Zeigler started 0-for-7 from beyond the arc. Josiah Jordan-James didn’t have a point. Santiago Vescovi had more missed shots (5) than points (4).

That’s how you end the day with a 42-14 points in the paint advantage. Any hope that the Vols would meet a skidding Mississippi State squad, which lost its last 4 regular-season games, should’ve faded amid a 15-4 start. No adjustment could be made in a game that Tennessee neither led nor got back within single digits in the second half.

Even when Barnes’ squad came out of halftime looking much more like the one we saw all year by getting the deficit down to 12 in the first 4 minutes, Mississippi State got the lead back up to 19 points less than 2 minutes later.

Toughness? One team had it, one team didn’t. The question is what’ll come of it.

For Mississippi State, the Tennessee statement should be a warning for the remaining field. History is still working against the Bulldogs, too. Since the SEC expanded to 14 teams in 2013, only 2 (2019 Auburn and 2022 Texas A&M) have reached the SEC Championship game without a double bye. If nothing else, the Bulldogs’ blitzkrieg of the Vols should earn them a more favorable Round of 64 matchup.

For Tennessee, however, it’s fair to question. It’s unfair to question if Tennessee “opted out” of the conference tournament. Nah. Not a Barnes-coached team.

It’s fair to question if Tennessee has some 2021-22 Auburn vibes. If you recall, the Tigers were led to the regular-season crown by their 1-year wonder (Jabari Smith Jr.) and then got upset by a defensive-focused Texas A&M team in its first game of the SEC Tournament. It was a sign of things to come when the Tigers got blasted by Miami in the Round of 32, which spoiled a season that had legitimate national title aspirations heading into March.

Time will tell if the Vols follow the path of 2021-22 Auburn. Perhaps a deep run in March is still ahead. One thing is for sure, though.

It won’t be so easy.