In a perfect world, Arch Manning is on the back burner in 2024. Again.

Don’t get it twisted. That sounds like I have Arch fatigue, which is definitely not the case. At one point during his 2022 recruiting visits, yes, I had a touch of Arch fatigue. The analyzing of every little thing that his dad, Cooper Manning, would tell the media was a bit much at times. That’s no fault of Arch’s.

It’s a credit to Manning that he’s been on the back burner to this point. It’ll be a credit to Manning, Steve Sarkisian, the Texas offensive line and perhaps most important, Quinn Ewers, if that’s the case again in 2024.

Well, let’s back up.

Maalik Murphy deserves credit for keeping Manning in the shadows. He played his tail off all last offseason to earn the right to be Ewers’ understudy. His play in Ewers’ absence earned him a Power 5 market in the transfer portal, and he’ll have an opportunity to become a household name at Duke.

Manning, as we know, has been a household name for a minute. There’s not a more famous backup in college football than No. 16 in burnt orange. The Manning family has been on the front burner for a good chunk of the last half-century. Combine that with Arch’s No. 1 overall ranking as a Class of 2023 recruit and you’ve got this current situation. That is, a simmering fire that’ll erupt the second someone dumps gasoline on it. Or rather, the second that Ewers is unavailable.

History suggests that could be a possibility. Ewers has missed multiple games in each of his past 3 seasons as a starter. That includes his senior season of high school in 2020 when he missed 6 games with a sports hernia.

The good news for Ewers is that we’re past the point of thinking he’s in any sort of battle with Manning. You know, like some assumed would be the case when Manning committed … even though Ewers was also the No. 1 overall recruit in his class 2 years earlier. Some will assume that a No. 1 overall recruit being a backup in Year 2 will mean that he’s a bust and conveniently leave out that he’s waiting behind a preseason Heisman favorite, but hey, I digress.

Even if Ewers stays healthy, Manning is going to get more reps in 2023. He appeared in 2 games this past season, only 1 of which was him attempting a pass. It didn’t happen until the regular-season finale when Texas was on its way to a 57-7 win. Sarkisian then put Manning in for the final 3 snaps of the blowout win in the Big 12 Championship.

Arguably Manning’s most noteworthy moment of his college career so far was kneeling on the final play and tossing the ball to injured running back Jonathan Brooks, who got to suit up 1 last time after he suffered a season-ending injury against TCU (via ESPN).

It was a monumental win for Texas. It wasn’t just that it claimed its first Big 12 Championship in 14 years to earn what proved to be a Playoff-clinching victory. There wasn’t even a sliver of drama surrounding a potential transfer. In this NIL/transfer portal world, that’s significant.

Shoot, go back before NIL to another noteworthy moment for a 5-star freshman QB in a conference championship game. Remember the Justin Fields fake punt against Alabama? Of course you do. It’s arguably the biggest demerit on Kirby Smart’s otherwise impeccable résumé. How much that play led to Fields transferring from Georgia is a question that only he can answer, but what we do know is that he didn’t want to stick around to be Jake Fromm’s backup for another year.

Manning is opting for the atypical path. At least as it relates to 5-star QBs in the SEC in the Playoff era.

  • 2014 Kyle Allen (Texas A&M) — Took over QB1 late as true freshman, won starting job heading into Year 2
  • 2015 Kyler Murray (Texas A&M) — Transferred before Year 2
  • 2015 Blake Barnett (Alabama) — Earned first snaps in Year 2, lost job in Week 1, transferred after Week 4
  • 2016 Shea Patterson (Ole Miss) — Took over QB1 late as true freshman, won starting job heading into Year 2
  • 2016 Jacob Eason (Georgia) — Started as true freshman, was QB1 heading into Year 2
  • 2017 Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama) — Competed with Jalen Hurts and won QB1 heading into Year 2
  • 2018 Justin Fields (Georgia) — Transferred before Year 2
  • 2019 Bo Nix (Auburn) — QB1 as true freshman
  • 2020 Bryce Young (Alabama) — QB1 heading into Year 2
  • 2021 Brock Vandagriff (Georgia) — QB3 heading into Year 2
  • 2022 Conner Weigman (Texas A&M) — QB1 heading into Year 2
  • 2022 Ty Simpson (Alabama) — QB3 heading into Year 2

Manning’s path is probably most similar to Vandagriff. Simpson had a legitimate QB battle while Vandagriff had Carson Beck and national-championship winning Stetson Bennett IV ahead of him on the depth chart. But the good news for Manning is that while he would still need an injury to open the door for him to become QB1, his version of Beck was Murphy, who transferred out.

If Manning had transferred out, that actually would’ve followed the more typical path. But instead, he opted to stay in an ideal situation, and not just because Texas returns 4 of 5 starters on that offensive line.

Soaking up another year of guidance won’t hurt him. He’ll learn more from Ewers, a former No. 1 overall recruit who had to steady his own hype train. He’ll learn more from Sarkisian, an elite offensive mind with a remarkable track record with college quarterbacks. He’ll learn more from mentally and physically preparing each week like he’s the starter for a team with legitimate national title aspirations.

Manning’s first season in the SEC has the potential to be incredibly uneventful from his perspective. We won’t even get the storyline of Manning — either as the backup or the starter in relief — facing Ole Miss or Tennessee. That’ll have to wait until at least 2025.

If “waiting until at least 2025” best describes rekindling the Arch-mania fire, that’s not such a bad thing. Dare I say, it might be the best thing.