Better or worse? Previewing Vanderbilt’s offense in 2020
Editor’s note: This completes the preview series of every SEC team’s offense. Monday, we kick off our annual preview of each team’s defense, starting in the SEC West with Alabama.
The Vanderbilt Commodores finished the 2019 season with a disappointing 3-9 record. That included a 1-7 mark in SEC play, with their only win coming over Mizzou in one of the most surprising results of the SEC season.
Heading into the 2020 season, there’s not much reason for hope on the offensive side of the ball. This will be a major rebuilding year, and the fact that spring practices were canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic really hurt them.
The schedule won’t do Vandy many favors, either. It’s hard to find more than 4 potential wins, and that might be generous.
If the Commodores do hit the 4-win mark (or go above it), it will likely be because of a strong defensive performance. With that said, let’s take a look at a few aspects of the Vandy offense and determine whether they’ll be better or worse than they were in 2019:
Passing game
Who will be the starting quarterback? Well, at this point, your guess is probably as good as mine. There are 5 quarterbacks on the roster — freshmen Ken Seals and Mike Wright and juniors Jack Bowen, Jeremy Moussa and Danny Clark — and any of them could start.
Couple that uncertainty with a passing attack that lost WR Kalija Lipscomb and TE Jared Pinkney to the NFL and there are a ton of questions when it comes to the Commodores moving the ball through the air in 2020. Redshirt sophomore WR Cam Johnson not only is the team’s leading returning receiver (with 30 catches for 316 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2019), he’s also surprisingly Vanderbilt’s leading returning passer, having completed 1-of-2 for 16 yards last season.
Considering Vanderbilt finished 14th (last) in the SEC in scoring in 2019 (16.5 points per game), last in total offense (296.7 yards per game) and 13th in passing yards per game (172.0), this team couldn’t afford to lose much talent. In reality, Vandy lost almost all of its key offensive contributors.
It’s difficult to imagine things will get much better in Nashville this fall. The numbers could get a heck of a lot worse with an inexperienced quarterback and wide receivers who need more reps to realize their full potential.
Verdict: Worse
Running game
Ke’Shawn Vaughn was pretty much a 1-man show last season. The Commodores had an SEC-low 1,496 rushing yards, and Vaughn accounted for 1,028 of those yards. That means Vaughn had 68.7% of Vandy’s rushing yards.
Now, he’s gone and the only key contributor returning to the backfield in 2020 is Keyon Brooks, who had 252 yards and a touchdown in 2019. The Commodores will also get Jamauri Wakefield back. He suffered a season-ending injury against Georgia in Week 1 last year. In 2018, he had 353 rushing yards and 2 scores.
Those are 2 promising backs, but the offensive line is going to need to improve if the running game is going to fare better. Tyler Steen is the only offensive lineman returning who started all 12 games last year. He’ll likely move from right tackle to left tackle. From there, the Commodores have some guys who got plenty of reps last year, but as mentioned throughout this article, that’s not exactly a great thing.
With the inexperience at the skill positions, the offensive line will have to take a huge leap forward for this rushing attack to strike fear into the hearts of defenses.
Verdict: Worse
Kicking game
The Commodores lost kicker Riley Guay to graduation, but 2019 backup Javan Rice, who made his only field goal and all 4 of his extra points, is back. He’ll compete with Columbia graduate transfer Oren Milstein for the starting kicker spot.
Milstein holds 6 Columbia kicking records and hit 3 game-winning field goals. He has made 20-of-26 career attempts and 42-of-44 extra-point tries. That should be a solid competition between Rice and Milstein.
Meanwhile, in the punting game, 2019 starter Harrison Smith returns. He averaged 43 yards per punt last year. That was good for 8th among the 10 punters who qualified from the 2019 season. If he improves a bit, he could be a top-5 punter in the SEC.
This is by far the most stable section of the Vanderbilt offense. The kickers might not be kicking many extra points, but when they do take the field, they should be solid, no matter who wins the starting job.
Verdict: Better
Overall
Vandy finished last in the SEC in scoring last season at 16.5 points per game. As mentioned earlier, this is probably going to be another long year for Vandy fans when it comes to watching the offense. That isn’t to say it’s a hopeless cause, but the quarterback situation is a mess. In this day and age, you can’t win without solid quarterback play.
If I were the Commodores, I would start freshman Ken Seals or Michael Wright (both freshmen quarterbacks) to get them experience in 2020 with the hopes that they’ll improve in 2021 and 2022. I’d also make sure Keyon Brooks gets plenty of carries.
There are some things the Commodores can build on this year with the hopes of improving in the future, but even though things can’t get much worse for this team in terms of statistical ranks in the SEC, I think the overall numbers are going to be worse than they were in 2019.
Verdict: Worse
This is a completely honest evaluation. The offense this year at West End Avenue is going to be as weak compared to the opposition as the Jack Green offenses of the 1960’s.
Vanderbilt’s pass blocking was so inferior that no QB could really set up and throw last year. Then, the roster lost its top returning blocker, who transferred to Georgia Tech.
You can put Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Joe Montana, Joe Namath, Bart Starr, John Unitas, Sonny Jurgensen, Norm Van Brocklin, Otto Graham, or Sammy Baugh in their primes at QB with Vanderbilt’s pass blocking, and they will put up stats like Riley Neal had last year. Neal was a borderline NFL draft pick when he left Ball State, and he looked more like George Plimpton with the Detroit Lions than Greg Landry when he was playing for Vanderbilt.
The running game will not suffer all that much with the loss of Vaughn. Run blocking won’t be too different, as that is the easiest blocking to teach, and most offensive lines, even Vanderbilt’s, can briefly open a hole.
Vanderbilt will supposedly open the offense with the new OC, but in reality, exchanging stretch running plays with short wide passes in the backfield isn’t much of a difference. The QB will still have the least amount of pass protection with the 14th rated offensive line and the 14th rated receiving corps.
My only guess is that the most experienced player should be the opening game starter, especially if it is all SEC games. No true freshman that is a 3-star or 2-star recruit should take his first snap against Missouri in Columbia, or worse against Alabama, Auburn, or Mississippi State if this is an added game. Clark might be the best option as the opening game starter. At one time, he was considered talented enough to go to Ohio State. Georgia and Alabama recruited him. Urban Meyer actually didn’t want him at Ohio State, but he would not pull the offer to an in-state player. Clark then chose Kentucky and graduated early to get a head start. Things didn’t work out, but he’s still probably the best option to start game 1 against an SEC team. Moussa would be the other option. Ultimately, whichever of the candidates can set up and throw accurately in the least amount of time is going to run the offense, even if most of the offense is a bunch of pass plays that gain less than 5 yards per attempt.
Kyle Shurmur was a top tier QB his last two years at Vandy… Your QB argument once again is invalid. He has pretty much been the best QB at Vandy, him and Cutler. Other than that, I’m a firm believer Mason and all athletics get no support from the University.
Sorry their partner, but Kyle Shurmur never played a down with last year’s offensive line. His senior year offensive line included Justin Skule, Bruno Reagan, and Devin Cochran, just off the top of my head. Skule is in the NFL and started for the NFC Champion 49ers. Reagan made the XFL and could end up in the NFL. Cochcran will be Georgia Tech’s best offensive lineman when they next play.
As good as Shurmur was, he was not the best QB at Vandy. Bill Wade was the best by far. He was the #1 pick in the NFL Draft, at a time when there were only 12 pro teams, and he led the Bears to the NFL Championship after being a consistent starter with the Rams, leading the NFL in passing in 1958. He was also a guest star on the Donna Reed Show being the darling of the LA sports stars before the Dodgers took over the city.
You see Vanderbilt through gold-colored glasses, and that’s fine if you still support the program. But, two a recovered VUaholic, it is quite easy to see this for what it is. How often could you beat me playing chess, if you replace your queen and bishops with pawns, while I get to replace three pawns with two bishops and a second queen? You may know chess better than me, but I will mate you with relative ease.
Hey “partner”, I’m the realist Vandy fan there is. The athletic program is a disgrace except baseball. They should have fired Mason years ago. I hate the fact it is a liberal gun control loving institution. I’m glad they started serving alcohol at games, they should have done it years ago. In fact they should have given it to Vandy fans for free since we had to sit through so many pitiful seasons of football. They should have never got rid of Stallings in basketball. I hate pretty much everything that the school and athletic department does except in baseball. I know how bad Vanderbilt is. But your argument about Shurmur not being one of Vandy’s best all time QBs in so stupid. He beat UT 3 times in a row, with all of them being blowouts and at Vandy that’s like winning the super bowl. I literally could argue with you and win every single time about anything good or bad about Vandy, most of it being bad.
You should counter everything I say that you don’t agree with, but you should more carefully read my statements that you plan to rebut.
I never said that Kyle Shurmur wasn’t ONE of the school’s best all time. I said he wasn’t THE best. Bill Wade was the best. I think beating Tennessee when they were a 4-8 team is not the same as playing Tennessee when Coach Neyland had them as the National Champions in 1951, and against then 11-1 1950 team that many VFLs say was better than the 1951 national champs.
Wade beat Alabama in Mobile on the National Game of the Week. It was the equivalent of winning the Saturday night ABC game or CBS game in prime time. Wade completed long bombs to Bucky Curtis, and it made him the most popular, most famous, and top-rated QB in the nation, ahead of Babe Parilli at Kentucky.
We have something we can agree on. I own more guns and rifles than Vanderbilt has SEC wins in the last 10 years. I have enough 7.62 and .223 ammo to fill up a closet in my home, and I am an acquaintance with Hickok 45, the famous Youtube star.
When you mentioned the sports being a disgrace, you left out the dominant women’s bowling team that wins the Southland Conference the way Alabama wins the SEC in football.
Vanderbilt should be more competitive than this.
I don’t have a clue what’s going on at Vanderbilt. Even with their academic standards, they should be better just by virtue of being able to sell playing in the SEC.
Looking at their 2020 schedule, Mercer may be the only game they win. They aren’t going to win an SEC game and three wins is their 2020 ceiling.
James Franklin showed you can recruit and have winning seasons and bowl games at Vanderbilt. The real question today is whether or not the administration cares.
Well, you kind of answered you’re own question. College football by and large comes down to recruiting. That’s not to say coaching doesn’t matter, PJ Fleck hasn’t had the best talent (ranking wise) but he’s getting results because he’s a dam good coach. Of course when you get a James Franklin or PJ Fleck at Vandy or Minnesota you’ve got to be able to either keep them or make another home run hire, and that speaks to the very end of your comment, the level of commitment by the administration. However, it’s possible to be in the SEC and still have athletic programs operate in the red, so it’s a little unrealistic to assume just because a school is in the SEC they’re raking in the dough like Fla, LSU, Bama or aTm, because that’s just not the case.
Mizzou been down a long time in the Big 12. Also when you look at Mizzou they should also be getting better HCs and not someone that will get you 6-8 wins a season. Recruiting is the biggest hurdle for Mizzou.I believe Drinkwitz is the one to get the recruiting class better than a #30 ranked class for 2021.
James Franklin Is a Good Head Football Coach. It’s truly sad to see Vandy’s Program in the condition it is at this time. Their Administration, in spite of the changes there…Obviously Does Not Care..as long as those Big-SEC-Checks keep Rolling in.
If every SEC program relied only on the “SEC checks” they’d all be operating in the red. The SEC checks alone don’t pay for facilities, training centers, upgrades or even coaching hires. The boosters do.
Vanderbilt charges the athletic department for each athletic scholarship. The average annual cost for room and board, tuition, food plan, books, and other fees comes to something like $76,000 a year. That’s something between 10 and 15 million funneled from athletics to general.
Vanderbilt must recruit nationally more than any other SEC school in an attempt to find players that can qualify to get in and play football. Stanford doesn’t have to spend as much on recruiting, because there are more Californian students that can get into Stanford than there are Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, and other regional states that can get into Vanderbilt.
Additionally, just because a 4-star recruit with a 4.0 GPA and 34 ACT score can get into Vanderbilt, it doesn’t mean he still wouldn’t rather play for Alabama or USC or even Northwestern, Duke, or Princeton.
I haven’t heard any recent numbers, but the last time I did know this, even with the SEC check, Vanderbilt was operating at a paper loss in the 8 figures. And, the season ticket numbers from Vanderbilt fans, removing opposing fans that buy season tickets for just the one game, is now considerably less than 10,000. With the Titans, Predators, and Nashville SC Soccer in town, pro sports dominate the media coverage. The AAA Nashville Sounds of the PCL outdraw the national champion baseball team by about 2 to 1 per game, and it must disturb Vanderbilt fans that their baseball coach is now part of the Major League Baseball to Nashville bid, along with some big-time money and big-time celebrities. Nashville will probably have Major League Baseball in the next few years, and Tim Corbin will be part of the Nashville Stars, maybe even the manager.
I’m conflicted, I think Vanderbilt could/should be doing much better especially with the vols doing big things in the same state.
But I really like Derek Mason as a coach and think his passion for the dores even when they’re in the basement is something commendable.
Regardless if he is fired or not after this season, I hope he gets a job on another teams staff.
Yep make it South Carolina the team he should join on the staff! That would be cool!
The recent news escaping through local reporters that the administration not only has no desire to ante up and attempt to compete with their SEC brethren, they even ordered the marketing department not to publicize the great deeds of any teams or individual players.
Vanderbilt fired its entire sports information staff. Scathing editorials by two of their most supportive beat writers basically stated that they have seen the light that the plan is to accept the SEC money and do very little to earn it.
How bad is Vanderbilt perceived to be in the eyes of the public? Take the very popular national radio talk show host Dana Loesch. By her own admission, she knows nothing about college sports. She is an expert in firearms and the use of beet powder, and is an old-fashioned values type of hottie.
Yesterday afternoon, while she was commenting on Tommy Tuberville’s beating Jeff Sessions in the Alabama run-off, she talked about how Sessions’ handlers quipped that Tuberville was a complete failure as a coach, because he lost to Vanderbilt.
Loesch then stated that even though she knows absolutely nothing about college football, she knew that losing to Vanderbilt was a major embarrassment, because, in her words, “they suck.”
Is this the image Vanderbilt University wants? Do they get some sort of snobbish self-satisfaction being one of the top 5 medical facilities in the nation and leaving a national perspective that they suck in football?
How have Stanford, Northwestern, and Duke been able to succeed in football and still remain ahead of Vanderbilt academically? Even my alma mater, which many authorities call the best undergraduate academic institution in the nation, spends more on football and men’s and women’s basketball than the other Ivy League schools.
The ultimate result will be that Vanderbilt will see its ardent fanbase reduce to ridiculously embarrassing numbers, as old fans die or leave and very few new fans replace them. The stadium will continue to be a home game for the SEC opponent and occasional non-conference opponent like Kansas State in 2017.
And, Vanderbilt will stick its palm out to collect the $45.3 million check and laugh at the welfare payment coming from the pockets of the schools that generated and earned that money. Except for Ole Miss that plays them every year, the other 6 SEC West Schools get nothing out of this, except for a nearly guaranteed conference win in the years that they are fortunate to have Vanderbilt on the schedule.
If Vanderbilt really wanted to compete, there would have been the type of leadership that would have done the following:
1. When Bryce Drew was fired by Malcolm Turner, Eric Musselman was interested, and his agent approached Vanderbilt only to be dismissed that the job already had its top candidate. It was 100% quid pro quo to repay Korn Ferry. Instead of hiring the best college basketball coach in the nation, they hired Jerry Stackhouse, who had zero college experience. The list of NBA personnel with zero college experience succeeding is quite low–Bob Cousy at Boston College in the 1960s!
2. When Melanie Balcomb was fired as women’s coach, Princeton head coach Courtney Banghart wanted the job and applied for it. She had made my alma mater the Kentucky of women’s basketball in the Ivy, and she knew how to recruit athletes that could get into Princeton, which has a little tougher admission standards. Instead, they hired a WNBA coach that couldn’t even assume duties at the school until after her team was eliminated in the playoffs.
3. When David Willliams retired, Army’s Boo Corrigan was the obvious choice to replace him, but Vanderbilt botched that as well. Corrigan would have been the best AD Vandy has had since Roy Kramer but with a better public presence.
4. The school only briefly gave total autonomy to its AD in this century. Todd Turner was starting to right the ship in the early 2000’s. There is one coach still in the fold that came from his administration–Tim Corbin. Turner had the reins pulled in when positive change began to happen at McGugin. Turner went to Washington, but his hiring of Ty Willingham didn’t pan out, so he was let go with Willingham.
5. The athletic fundraising department was removed from the athletic buildings and placed in a nearby hotel, where it could be more closely monitored by the academic fundraising group there already. This was done not to improve the athletic fundraising, but to curtail the competition to the academic fundraising.
6. In addition to the sabotaging of the fundraising, Vanderbilt charges the athletic budget for every penny of every athletic scholarship given to students. That’s basically $76,000 for every scholarship athlete, from football to bowling, and it includes non-participant personnel like student trainers and equipment personnel. That accounts for roughly 1/3 of the money the SEC gives the school, which is then used for academics and research and not athletics.
6a. The athletic fundraising group was forewarned not to approach specific big-money donors that gave to non-athletic parts of the school. This became a sore subject when the Senate passed new tax laws that stopped most of the big-money donations’ tax-deductible status in 2017. This made corporate sponsorship much more important, and the athletic department was told to keep their hands off many of the corporate donors to the academic/medical/research side.
With all this, how Vanderbilt can retain even the minuscule amount of devoted fans perplexes every sports fan and media member in town that talks to me about this subject.
The SEC will not act as the bully in this and force the issue on Vanderbilt, at least not until beating Vanderbilt in football actually hurts a team’s chances to be chosen for the playoffs due to hurting its strength of schedule.
Eventually, Tim Corbin will leave Vanderbilt, and the baseball program will regress back to where it was. It could coincide with Major League Baseball coming to Nashville, and when that happens, Vanderbilt will be substandard in all four key sports. When this happens, it might be time to contemplate the school’s future in athletics as it pertains to the SEC and Division 1.