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College Football

Week 4 Win Probability: Vanderbilt

Jason Hall

By Jason Hall

Published:

Using ESPN’s FPI (Football Power Index) as a guide, Vanderbilt has a 6.1 percent chance to beat South Carolina on Saturday.

GAMECOCKS’ MOMENTUM, VANDY STRUGGLES MAKE FOR PERFECT STORM IN NASHVILLE

The game’s opening line is currently 21.5 in favor of No. 14 South Carolina. The Gamecocks are coming off a 38-35 thriller over No. 13 Georgia and reclaimed the momentum lost in a season opening blowout to Texas A&M. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, squeaked out their first win in a 34-31 victory over UMass last Saturday following a shanked field goal. The Commodores have used four different quarterbacks in three games and have a -5 turnover margin.

Vandy must solve its quarterback situation above all else. Patton Robinette returned to action Saturday after being benched in the team’s opening game. Robinette had the strongest showing of any of the Commodores’ quarterbacks, leading a comeback in the second half. But head coach Derek Mason hinted at a two-quaterback system leading into this weekend’s game. Vanderbilt’s strongest performer on offense is running back Ralph Webb. Webb leads Vandy with 281 yards and a touchdown on one carry. He will need a solid showing for the Commodores to keep the game competitive.

South Carolina jumped ten spots from No. 24 after last week’s upset. The Gamecocks saw a strong performance from running backs Brandon Wilds and Mike Davis, who combined for 159 yards. Wilds led with 93 yards and provided an eventual game winning touchdown. Dylan Thompson also enjoyed an efficient performance with 271 yards, three touchdowns and one interception on 21-of-30 passing.

The two programs are meeting from opposite ends of the spectrum. South Carolina looked more like the SEC East favorite in last week’s win. Vanderbilt has struggled throughout the season and will be heavily overmatched by the Gamecocks.

Jason Hall

A former freelance journalist from Nashville, Jason covers Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky

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