New Florida coach Jim McElwain has done well to tamp down expectations in Gainesville this offseason, preventing too many unrealistic hopes during this transition year.

Still, the Gators expect to win every season, and win big.

The schedule delivers good news and bad news: Florida gets to ease into the season with three very winnable games, allowing the team to work out some of the unknowns. But with crossover games against ranked teams LSU and Ole Miss, in addition to perennial ACC contender Florida State, there’s an unrelenting stream of challenging opponents.

A harrowing October stretch means any September losses could threaten Florida’s chances of returning to a bowl game.

Analyzing Florida’s 2015 schedule, here’s a closer look:

FAVORABLE MATCHUPS

Florida appears to be a clear favorite in just five games this season. That means the Gators will have to develop quickly in the season’s early games to be ready for the meat of the schedule that arrives in October. The hope is to steal some games somewhere, perhaps at the expense of Tennessee and South Carolina.

Remaining unblemished through September will be critical to bowl hopes.

Games in which Florida should be favored:

  • vs. New Mexico State, Sept. 5
  • vs. East Carolina, Sept. 12
  • at Kentucky, Sept. 19
  • vs. Vanderbilt, Nov. 7
  • vs. Florida Atlantic, Nov. 21

BIGGEST GAMES

It sounds strange to say that any game in September is a “must-win” affair, but the reality is the Gators need to beat Kentucky and Tennessee to maximize its chances of going to a bowl. The ‘Cats would love nothing better than to kick the Gators while they’re down to send a message around the league that they’re SEC doormats no more. The Vols are loaded with athletes after consecutive years of recruiting successes and could be poised to make some noise once more in the SEC East. Lose either one and it could make for a long, ugly season in Gainesville.

  • at Kentucky, Sept. 19
  • vs. Tennessee, Sept. 26
  • at South Carolina, Nov. 14
  • vs. Florida State, Nov. 28

ROUGH PATCH

  • vs. Ole Miss, Oct. 3
  • at Missouri, Oct. 10
  • at LSU, Oct. 17
  • vs. Georgia, Oct. 31

The schedule-makers didn’t do the Gators any favors with a murderous month of October that pits them against four teams sitting in the preseason Top 25 USA Today Coaches Poll. If the Gators can manage to steal a game or two in this stretch, they would be in good shape as the schedule eases up in November. In October, Florida gets rewarded for surviving one of the most talented Ole Miss teams ever with road trips to reigning SEC East champion Missouri and powerful LSU, and then the annual showdown in Jacksonville with rival Georgia. Whew.

TOUGHEST TILT

Ole Miss will present the kind of problems that could bedevil an inexperienced Florida offensive line. An aggressive Rebels front seven could pose major protection problems to a Gators offensive line that lists just one player who has started a collegiate game.

SEASON DEFINING STRETCH

  • Sept. 19-26

Barring something unforeseen, Florida should have little problem with either New Mexico State or East Carolina to start the season. But a loss to either Kentucky or Tennessee in late September would eliminate the margin for error as the Gators head into the teeth of the schedule. Going unbeaten through September would give a young team the added confidence it needs and possibly set the tone for an upset or two down the road.