Editor’s note: Saturday Down South’s annual Crystal Ball series continues today with Mississippi State. We’ll go in alphabetical order through the 16-team SEC.

Previously: Alabama | Arkansas | Auburn | Florida | Georgia | Kentucky | LSU | Mizzou

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Whatever the hope was for the Mike Leach succession plan, it’s safe to say that 2023 fell well short of that.

Zach Arnett was the full-time head coach, but he only got to do that for 1 year. It was a 5-win season that saw Mississippi State’s bowl streak end at 13 years. That’s because the offense regressed by 10 points per game as it unsuccessfully attempted to transition from the Leach Air Raid to the more pro-style Kevin Barbay offense.

Needless to say, that wasn’t part of the plan. Unfortunately, that plan was thrown in the trash after Arnett got to hire his staff. Again, even though he was promoted internally, he was not an interim coach.

Why is that significant? In this age of the transfer portal, wherein 30-day windows are allowed for players to transfer schools without penalty if they get a new head coach, Mississippi State is now dealing with an uphill climb in Year 1 of the Jeff Lebby era. In each of the past 2 transfer portal cycles, the Bulldogs lost 25 players. That’s not including NFL Draft entries or guys who exhausted their eligibility. Hence, Mississippi State’s No. 116 ranking in percentage of returning production.

That’s a unique task for Lebby in his first head coaching gig. It’s wild to think that he’s already the 4th head coach of the post-Dan Mullen era, which ended after the 2017 season. Lebby is the 4th head coach in 7 seasons. That certainly wasn’t the vision for the Mullen succession plan, either.

So what does that mean for Lebby as yet another new era begins in Starkville?

Let’s dig into it with Mississippi State’s 2024 Crystal Ball:

The Jeff Lebby offense should establish some sort of Year 1 identity

I apologize if you’re not a fan of this rather cliché term, but for the aforementioned reasons I outlined with the roster turnover, I feel compelled to fire one off.

It’s Year 0 for the Lebby era.

I don’t expect that to be the vibe internally. No program operates like that. Year 0 means that external expectations should be incredibly low, and to compare it to past teams or situations doesn’t seem fair when we know the challenges that await. Having said that, Lebby can still establish a Year 1 identity for his offense. That has to be the goal.

Lebby took an important step in doing that by getting multi-year Baylor starter Blake Shapen out of the transfer portal. Shapen’s ability to attack downfield will be a major asset. You could make the case that he’s the program’s best deep-ball passer since Dak Prescott. Why? He completed 22 passes of 40 yards over 21 games in the past 2 seasons. That’s a better average than Michael Penix Jr. during that stretch.

Related: Looking to make a bet on the 2024 Heisman Trophy? SDS has you covered with all the latest odds!

Don’t get it twisted. Nobody is saying that Shapen will be the second coming of Penix or Prescott. If that were the case, he’d already be in the NFL. But someone with 5,574 career passing yards at the Power 5 level will have the opportunity to elevate Mississippi State’s floor.

It helped that Lebby hit the portal hard to find plug-and-play offensive players. UTEP transfer Kelly Akharaiyi is a former 1,000-yard receiver who ranked No. 6 in FBS with 8 catches of 40 yards, which he accomplished in just 12 games. He figures to play the majority of his snaps out wide while former Jackson State/Louisville transfer Kevin Coleman will be in the all-important slot role. Last year, Drake Stoops ranked No. 19 in FBS with 84 catches playing in that primary slot role with Lebby.

It’ll be interesting to see how guys from the previous regime like Creed Whittemore and Jordan Mosley fit in. They might not have had the role they hoped to have in the Barbay offense, but one would think they’ll be tasked with taking on more under Lebby.

The quarterback, the pass-catchers and the scheme all have legitimate promise. Three new starters on an offensive line that struggled last year will be the bigger question.

There’s more turnover on defense than most probably realize

Remember those numbers related to the transfer losses in the past 2 years? The offense already faced that transition last year. This year figures to be when we really see that show up on defense in the post-Arnett era. I don’t say that tongue-in-cheek at all. Arnett led that defense for 4 years, albeit with a different play-caller during his time as a head coach. He recruited and developed well within his scheme.

Gone are the ageless Bookie Watson and Jett Johnson, who had roughly a billion tackles apiece in their productive college careers. It’s easy to forget that Mississippi State had a combined 5 defensive players drafted the past 2 years. That’s a lot at a place that doesn’t recruit top-10 classes loaded with blue-chip recruits.

Mississippi State’s percentage of defensive production ranked No. 132 out of 134 FBS teams (27%) in those initial rankings back in February. Lebby made a couple of post-spring additions in the secondary, but outside of that, everything about that group will feel different. South Carolina transfer Stone Blanton will be an important part of that, as will defensive line returner De’Monte Russell, who opted to stay in Starkville for his 6th year of eligibility (this will be his 4th head coach).

New DC Coleman Hutzler will have full autonomy on the defensive side of the ball for the first time in his coaching career. That’ll make for an interesting — and likely challenging — set of circumstances in Year 1.

Game-by-game predictions

Week 1: vs. Eastern Kentucky (W)

MSU needs a “get the feet wet” season-opener. It gets just that with the FCS foe coming into town.

Week 2: vs. Arizona State (W)

While I think Arizona State was more competitive than its 3-9 mark suggested, its quarterback room somehow got worse after losing Drew Pyne (Mizzou) and Jaden Rashada (Georgia) to SEC backup roles. That benefits Mississippi State’s young defense, which doesn’t set the world on fire, but gets enough stops while the offense continues to get home-run plays in the passing game.

Week 3: vs. Toledo (W)

The bad news for Mississippi State is that it’ll face an 11-win Toledo team that’s led by 9th-year coach Jason Candle. The good news for Mississippi State is that it’ll face a Toledo team that ranks No. 122 in FBS in percentage of returning production after guys like Dequan Finn and Peny Boone hit the portal for bigger opportunities. That’s evident in a close, but not quite thrilling Bulldogs victory to reach 3-0.

Week 4: vs. Florida (L)

In the Dan Mullen bowl, Graham Mertz and his former Wisconsin target Chimere Dike are the difference. They are unstoppable on the road in what initially starts as a back-and-forth shootout. Mississippi State struggles to protect Shapen as it tries to mount a comeback, forcing him into an interception to close it out. Florida’s 4-0 start going into the bye week becomes one of the stories of the young season while Lebby drops his SEC debut.

Week 5: at Texas (L)

The only offensive play-callers who led a winning effort against Texas were Lebby and Ryan Grubb. The former won’t exactly have the pieces that he had in his Year 2 Oklahoma offense. Texas’ secondary cools down the Mississippi State receivers after a fast start. Two early Shapen interceptions put the visiting Bulldogs in a hole that they can’t climb out of against the Longhorns’ balanced attack.

Week 6: Bye

Week 7: at Georgia (L)

I won’t be surprised if Shapen comes out firing against Georgia after a pair of physical rivalry games. Perhaps it’s a sleepy start in Athens with Texas on the horizon, which yields a classic Kirby Smart sideline blowup. But eventually, Georgia wakes up and finds the answers to counter the Bulldogs’ up-tempo attack. The ground game pulls the Dawgs out of an early rut to avoid the upset.

Week 8: vs. Texas A&M (L)

Mississippi State’s offensive line having to face Georgia and A&M in consecutive weeks is a cruel reality of SEC play. Nic Scourton and Shemar Turner take turns hitting Shapen. He’s forced into bad decisions that gives Conner Weigman and the A&M offense short fields all afternoon. For the first time in over 3 years, A&M wins a true road game.

Week 9: vs. Arkansas (L)

Revenge game? Revenge game. To be clear, I’m referring to the revenge that all of us spectators deserve after watching these 2 teams play last year. A high-scoring thriller unfolds this year, which ends with Taylen Green leading a go-ahead drive in the final 2 minutes. Mississippi State’s bid for its first SEC win of the Lebby era comes up short while Sam Pittman gets a much-needed win to keep bowl hopes alive.

Week 10: vs. UMass (W)

Say a prayer for UMass’ secondary. Lebby and Co. will get some good vibes back with a pass-heavy game plan that Don Brown struggles to stop. The Bulldogs get their first win since mid-September.

Week 11: at Tennessee (L)

There will be a handful of SEC defenses that want no part of Tennessee’s tempo, and it’ll be evident for most of the day. Mississippi State will be one of those teams. A unit that’s hurting for depth isn’t built to go into Knoxville and slow down the Nico Iamaleava version of the Tennessee offense.

Week 12: Bye

Week 13: vs. Mizzou (L)

Brady Cook returns for Mizzou in just the nick of time. The Tigers need every bit of their veteran quarterback to keep pace with Shapen and the emerging Mississippi State offense. In a game that has “last team with the ball wins” written all over it, Brett Norfleet steps up and hauls in a go-ahead score in the final minute for Mizzou.

Week 14: at Ole Miss (L)

I hate that this game isn’t being played on Thanksgiving. I know that hasn’t always been the tradition, but I loved this being the standalone game that we could all settle into while the tryptophan hit and we debated how many leftovers were worth piling onto our plates. But on Black Friday, Ole Miss shows up with a greater sense of urgency to win the game. The over/under on fights is 1.5 for the first Lane Kiffin/Lebby showdown (between the players, probably not the coaches). The over/under on Ole Miss points should be 40. In Oxford, Playoff-bound Ole Miss cruises.

2024 Projection: 4-8 (0-8), 15th in SEC

12-team Playoff berth? No

I know, Mississippi State fans. You’ve endured frustrating times. The last thing you want is to have another fall in which you realize how far your team is from being nationally relevant.

But remember this: Mullen and Leach started with losing seasons. Joe Moorhead had a winning season in Year 1, but that wasn’t deemed good enough because of what he inherited from Mullen. What Lebby inherited from Arnett was very much a work in progress. In an ideal world, Mississippi State can get back to where it was at under Mullen. That’ll take time. That’ll take patience.

It’s certainly possible that we see those flashes against quality competition this year. That could even result in an upset or 2 in SEC play that blows this pedestrian projection out of the water. But having an offensive line and a defense that’s a liability often dooms teams in this conference.

Better days are ahead.