Every week, SDS will look at what goes into the College Football Playoff selection committee’s latest rankings and what factors will influence their picks based on the previous weekend’s results.

It’s Alabama then everyone else in the race for what we consider the SEC’s guaranteed Playoff spot at season’s end.

The Crimson Tide’s win over Mississippi State should catapult Nick Saban’s team into Tuesday’s top four for the first time this season and likely doesn’t cripple the Bulldogs’ chances at an at-large berth too heavily.

Western Division rivalry games in two weeks will decide the SEC’s Playoff fate, something to keep an eye on during Iron Bowl and Egg Bowl finales. Should three-loss Auburn upset Alabama, Mississippi State heads to Atlanta with a victory over Ole Miss.

The 12-member selection committee’s final pairings are released on Dec. 7 with supposed transparency and no personal bias. The most likely points of emphasis for the final three weeks are as follows :

  • Conference championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head-to-head competition
  • Comparing results against common opponents
  • Relative factors that may have altered a team’s performance (injuries)

Here’s an explanation on how we think the committee will take these factors into account.

Making an educated guess based on those factors stated by the CFP committee, here’s how we expect the fourth Top 10 to look Tuesday night. The previous CFP can be seen here.

  1. Alabama
  2. Florida State
  3. Oregon
  4. Mississippi State
  5. TCU
  6. Baylor
  7. Ohio State
  8. Ole Miss
  9. UCLA
  10. Arizona State

Conference championship potential

Who it helps: Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State, Alabama

Who it hurts: Michigan State, Mississippi State, Georgia

Takeaways: Alabama moved into the SEC West driver’s seat with a win over No. 1 Mississippi State, practically erasing the September road loss to Ole Miss. If the Crimson Tide beat Auburn on Nov. 29, they’re a championship game victory away from possibly receiving the top overall seed. Runaway ACC favorite Florida State erased another multi-touchdown deficit to win a league showdown with Miami.

Strength of schedule

Who it helps: TCU, Oregon, Mississippi State, Alabama

Who it hurts: Ohio State, Marshall, Florida State

Takeaways: TCU’s remaining schedule may be weak (besides Texas), but the Horned Frogs have done enough thus far to stay in the top four if they win out. Mississippi State and Alabama are both in great shape thanks to multiple wins over tanked teams. If this was Selection Sunday, we would be glowing over the SEC’s RPI.

Head to head outcomes

Who it helps: TCU, Oregon, Alabama

Who it hurts: Ole Miss

Takeaways: Alabama’s win over Mississippi State is the singlemost important of the college football season in league play, one that will push the Crimson Tide ahead of TCU this week in the eyes of the committee. It’ll be interesting to see how far Mississippi State drops with a loss, the overwhelming No. 1 over the first three CFP polls.

Common opponent results

Who it helps: Mississippi State, Alabama, Oregon

Who it hurts: Michigan State (Oregon loss), Georgia, Ole Miss

Takeaways: Now with one-loss, Mississippi State’s resume is comparable — if not better — than any other Power 5 elite in terms of quality wins and an impressive schedule. Oregon’s still holding onto its non-conference win at Michigan State, but that lost some of its punch after the Spartans’ recent loss to Ohio State.

Relevant factors including injuries

Who it helps: Ohio State, Oregon

Who it hurts: Arizona

Takeaways: Ohio State continued its surge into the No. 7 slot in latest AP Poll with its eighth straight win, a 31-24 decision at Minnesota in the snow. Quarterback J.T. Barrett’s played his way into the Heisman race as well with a jaw-dropping 34 touchdowns during that stretch. Barrett’s play raises obvious questions under center for Urban Meyer next season: Does Braxton Miller start?