Examining this week’s College Football Playoff Poll
Every week, SDS will look at what goes into the College Football Playoff selection committee’s latest rankings and what factors will influence their picks based on the previous weekend’s results.
And then there were two … from the West.
Alabama and Mississippi State are the last teams standing after the smoke has cleared in college football’s toughest division, one that has set a record for number of bowl-eligible teams. The Crimson Tide (10-1) host Auburn this week for the rights to Atlanta and perhaps a near automatic berth into the College Football Playoff.
Mississippi State (10-1) must beat tail-spinning Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to try and maintain its No. 4 spot in the committee’s current rankings.
The Eastern Division will be decided Saturday when Arkansas visits Mizzou. Should the Tigers win, Gary Pinkel’s team goes to Atlanta. If the Razorbacks continue their hot streak, it’s Georgia getting the bid.
The 12-member selection committee’s final pairings are released on Dec. 7 with supposed transparency and no personal bias. The most likely points of emphasis for the final three weeks are as follows :
- Conference championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition
- Comparing results against common opponents
- Relative factors that may have altered a team’s performance (injuries)
Here’s an explanation on how we think the committee will take these factors into account.
Making an educated guess based on those factors stated by the CFP committee, here’s how we expect the fifth Top 10 to look Tuesday night. The previous CFP can be seen here.
- Alabama
- Oregon
- Florida State
- Mississippi State
- TCU
- Baylor
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- UCLA
- Michigan State
Conference championship potential
Who it helps: Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State, Alabama, Mizzou
Who it hurts: Michigan State, Mississippi State, Georgia
Takeaways: In all likelihood, the Buckeyes, Ducks, Seminoles and Crimson Tide will enter the postseason as conference champions, a feather in the cap according to the selection committee. If Mizzou beats Arkansas on Friday, it ends Georgia’s outside shot at a Playoff berth.
Strength of schedule
Who it helps: TCU, Oregon, Mississippi State, Alabama
Who it hurts: Ohio State, Florida State
Takeaways: Mississippi State’s strength of schedule takes a small hit this week against Ole Miss since the Rebels have lost three of their last four games. Oregon has continued to roll in Pac-12 play since a loss to Arizona in September and a victory over a UCLA team ranked in the Top 10 in the league title game would be another boost for the Ducks.
Head to head outcomes
Who it helps: TCU, Oregon, Alabama
Who it hurts: Mizzou
Takeaways: Possible SEC East champion Mizzou hasn’t beaten enough quality teams this season and the Tigers have a horrific loss to Indiana that has kept them out of the top 15 throughout the season. Throw in a 34-point loss to Georgia and the selection committee needs to see no more to know Mizzou’s true value (at least prior to the SEC Championship game).
Common opponent results
Who it helps: Alabama, Oregon, Mississippi State, TCU
Who it hurts: Michigan State, Georgia, Ohio State
Takeaways: Georgia’s losses this season are to a pair of 6-5 teams — South Carolina and Florida — while Michigan State’s defeats have come against two one-loss teams ahead of the Spartans in last week’s committee poll (Ohio State and Oregon). While the Buckeyes have played well since an early-season setback to Virginia Tech, the Hokies’ downward spiral hasn’t helped Ohio State’s weak strength of schedule.
Relevant factors including injuries, game control
Who it helps: Ohio State, Oregon
Who it hurts: Arizona