Every week, SDS will look at what goes into the College Football Playoff selection committee’s latest rankings and what factors will influence their picks based on the previous weekend’s results.

And then there were two … from the West.

Alabama and Mississippi State are the last teams standing after the smoke has cleared in college football’s toughest division, one that has set a record for number of bowl-eligible teams. The Crimson Tide (10-1) host Auburn this week for the rights to Atlanta and perhaps a near automatic berth into the College Football Playoff.

Mississippi State (10-1) must beat tail-spinning Ole Miss in the Egg Bowl to try and maintain its No. 4 spot in the committee’s current rankings.

The Eastern Division will be decided Saturday when Arkansas visits Mizzou. Should the Tigers win, Gary Pinkel’s team goes to Atlanta. If the Razorbacks continue their hot streak, it’s Georgia getting the bid.

The 12-member selection committee’s final pairings are released on Dec. 7 with supposed transparency and no personal bias. The most likely points of emphasis for the final three weeks are as follows :

  • Conference championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head-to-head competition
  • Comparing results against common opponents
  • Relative factors that may have altered a team’s performance (injuries)

Here’s an explanation on how we think the committee will take these factors into account.

Making an educated guess based on those factors stated by the CFP committee, here’s how we expect the fifth Top 10 to look Tuesday night. The previous CFP can be seen here.

  1. Alabama
  2. Oregon
  3. Florida State
  4. Mississippi State
  5. TCU
  6. Baylor
  7. Ohio State
  8. Georgia
  9. UCLA
  10. Michigan State

Conference championship potential

Who it helps: Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State, Alabama, Mizzou

Who it hurts: Michigan State, Mississippi State, Georgia

Takeaways: In all likelihood, the Buckeyes, Ducks, Seminoles and Crimson Tide will enter the postseason as conference champions, a feather in the cap according to the selection committee. If Mizzou beats Arkansas on Friday, it ends Georgia’s outside shot at a Playoff berth.

Strength of schedule

Who it helps: TCU, Oregon, Mississippi State, Alabama

Who it hurts: Ohio State, Florida State

Takeaways: Mississippi State’s strength of schedule takes a small hit this week against Ole Miss since the Rebels have lost three of their last four games. Oregon has continued to roll in Pac-12 play since a loss to Arizona in September and a victory over a UCLA team ranked in the Top 10 in the league title game would be another boost for the Ducks.

Head to head outcomes

Who it helps: TCU, Oregon, Alabama

Who it hurts: Mizzou

Takeaways: Possible SEC East champion Mizzou hasn’t beaten enough quality teams this season and the Tigers have a horrific loss to Indiana that has kept them out of the top 15 throughout the season. Throw in a 34-point loss to Georgia and the selection committee needs to see no more to know Mizzou’s true value (at least prior to the SEC Championship game).

Common opponent results

Who it helps: Alabama, Oregon, Mississippi State, TCU

Who it hurts: Michigan State, Georgia, Ohio State

Takeaways: Georgia’s losses this season are to a pair of 6-5 teams — South Carolina and Florida — while Michigan State’s defeats have come against two one-loss teams ahead of the Spartans in last week’s committee poll (Ohio State and Oregon). While the Buckeyes have played well since an early-season setback to Virginia Tech, the Hokies’ downward spiral hasn’t helped Ohio State’s weak strength of schedule.

Relevant factors including injuries, game control

Who it helps: Ohio State, Oregon

Who it hurts: Arizona