Change is inevitable in the SEC.

Conference play is a zero sum game. One team wins and another team loses. One team finishes first and another finishes last.

As such, SEC teams have hired 29 different head coaches since 2002. On average, the SEC features two head coaching changes per year. Just once in the 21st century has the league retained all its head coaches from one season to the next: 2006.

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But at that time, seven of the 12 SEC programs had hired a new head coach in the last three years. Now there are 14 teams, and there have been just two coaching changes in the last two years — at Florida and Vanderbilt.

Rather than produce mass chaos, the expansion to include Texas A&M and Missouri, and the resulting lucrative TV revenue (hint: SEC Network), seems to have solidified the job status of the head coaches. Even as every SEC West coach stands to make at least $4 million in 2015, it seems likely that all seven will return following the season.

Perhaps, like the time between earthquakes, we’re building up energy for mass firings following the 2016 season. Can a larger, more lucrative SEC really sustain three seasons with a total of three or fewer firings? That looks like where we’re headed.

Football seasons can be as few as 12 games. Just one or two results can change the big picture. All of this is fluid. But, entering 2015, Derek Mason appears to be the only coach in serious jeopardy of losing his job.

SMOLDERING

1. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt: Winning an SEC game seems important to outsiders, may of whom claim that Mason may lose his job if the Commodores are 0-16 in conference play under Mason. I wonder if that may be the third-most important criteria.

First, Mason did a poor job as a “CEO” type of Vanderbilt’s program in his first year. Several of his assistant coach hires didn’t work out, most notably offensive coordinator Karl Dorrell. The team proved indecisive about the quarterback position nearly all year. And at times Mason seemed to shrink when the team struggled.

Second, Vandy must avoid a land mine of potential non-conference losses this year, including a game against lower-tier neighbor Middle Tennessee State, a game at Houston — an American Athletic Conference team with a first-year coach — and a Western Kentucky team capable of scoring points in bunches even against an SEC defense.

Mason needs to a) be more decisive and correct with his football-related choices and b) avoid losses that are embarrassing even given Vanderbilt’s relatively modest expectations. If he can’t accomplish both of those things, there’s a good chance he won’t get a third year in Nashville.

ALUMINUM BENCHES IN THE SUN

2. Les Miles, LSU: The fact that Miles, whom we ranked as the second-best coach in the SEC earlier this month, also sits at No. 2 on this list illustrates the borderline-shocking job stability in the conference entering 2015. There’s very little chance that Miles will get fired following the season, though if the team’s quarterbacks again drag down the team, he may be forced to get rid of offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.

Still, last year’s 8-5 record represents his worst record since 2008. A contingent of fans in Baton Rogue already are restless. The SEC West is as difficult as ever. It wouldn’t be all that surprising if LSU lost four regular-season games again. But if that happens, the loud minority of angry Tigers fans should increase in number.

3. Mark Richt, Georgia: For a brief time at the end of 2014, wisps of smoke emerged from Athens, Ga. Long-time offensive coordinator Mike Bobo left for Colorado State. Seemingly the best SEC East team, Georgia managed to blow the division to Missouri despite beating the Tigers, 34-0, on the road. But then the athletic department offered strong public support for Richt, and the rumors calmed down.

Richt and the Bulldogs were five yards shy of an SEC championship in 2012, which likely would’ve led to a national championship victory against an outmatched Notre Dame team. Then UGA’s coach wouldn’t be carrying the stigma of undershooting expectations. But, as they say, perception is reality.

This year represents a tremendous opportunity for Georgia. The team may be the most balanced, talented group in the SEC. UGA plays Alabama and Auburn in the regular season and is a heavy favorite to win the East Division. But that’s a double-edged sword. Fall short of Atlanta again, and Richt is going to get hammered. He may not lose his job in that scenario, but athletic director Greg McGarity would at least be prudent to spend time considering whether there’s a better option available.

A/C IS RUNNING OUT OF FREON

4. Kevin Sumlin, Texas A&M: Sumlin has made the Aggies into a popular national brand. Texas A&M now is in the conversation with Texas, TCU and Baylor as the best football program in the Lone Star State. Kyle Field has undergone what turned out to be nearly $500 million in renovations under his watch. The team’s entry into the SEC produced an 11-2 year, a win at No. 1 Alabama and a Heisman Trophy for Johnny Manziel. The Aggies are churning out NFL talent and bringing in touted recruits.

At some point, though, Sumlin must produce results on the field. These things are predictable: when a coach jettisons a coordinator (Mark Snyder) after two seasons of crippling play and hires a vaunted, expensive replacement (John Chavis), the margin for error dissipates. Sumlin also has slipped from 11 to 9 to 8 wins the last three seasons.

His $5 million salary no longer seems as outlandish when the Mississippi schools each are paying a head coach more than $4 million. But another season in the bottom half of the SEC West standings would turn 2016 into a pressure cooker, and right now Texas A&M is one of two teams in the division not ranked. Sumlin gets one more year of “next year looks better” before using up all that capital he’s collected and entering “must-win” mode.

CRITICAL JUNCTURE

5. Butch Jones, Tennessee: Brick by brick, Jones has rebuilt a program demolished by Hurricane Dooley. The talent pool remains thinner and younger than the rest of the SEC’s blue-blood teams. But the team has improved — enough to establish real expectations in 2015.

Ranked at No. 25 in the Associated Press and USA Today Coaches Poll, the Volunteers don’t have to do anything outlandish to appease the fan base. But in many ways, elevating UT from a team that didn’t even qualify for a bowl game was a given. Now the real work begins: spanning the gap between “respectable” and “threatening.”

The roster is good enough that 6-6 and squeaking into a bowl game won’t cut it any more. Jones’ arrow has done nothing but point upward since his hire on Dec. 7, 2012. But in many ways the 2015 season will shape his legacy and perception more than the previous two.

6. Bret Bielema, Arkansas: There are massive parallels between Jones and Bielema. Arkansas finally snapped a 17-game SEC losing streak toward the end of last season, finishing with an impressive bowl victory to reach 7-6.

Expectations are enormous in Bielema’s third season. The team is ranked in the preseason Top 25, and some national writers are even calling the Razorbacks a dark horse in the SEC West. The coach has been a media sensation this offseason, drawing near-unanimous love.

Whether Arkansas pulls itself out of the West Divison cellar and bullies its way up the ranks or stalls out is a major story line in the SEC in 2015. Bielema has this team in position and all eyes are on Arkansas. What now?

7. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: We’ve come a long way from Halloween. Stoops began his second season at UK by winning five of his first six games. Soon after, he earned a new contract in Lexington. Then his defense played so poorly that the Wildcats closed the season by losing six consecutive games and falling short of bowl eligibility. The team scored 31, 31 and 40 points in three of those losses.

This offseason, Stoops has overseen, legitimately, one of the best recruiting efforts in the country. The Wildcats, of all teams, rank at No. 17 in the 2016 recruiting cycle, according to the 247Sports composite, and are off to a good start for the ’17 class.

Reaching a bowl game in his third season would represent a significant milestone and keep everyone happy in Big Blue Nation. All he needs is one additional win. Fail to do that, however, and some minor angst will start to build at Kentucky.

VERY SAFE FOR NOW

T8. Hugh Freeze, Ole Miss: He notched a home upset against Alabama, weathered a string of major injuries, survived an embarrassing bowl game and then hammered the recruiting trail yet again.

Freeze has managed to build sustainable talent (beyond the special 2013 class) and competitive facilities in Oxford. He signed a new contract during the offseason and it’s looking like he’ll lead Ole Miss for a very long time.

T8. Dan Mullen, Mississippi State: Mullen and Freeze are in very similar positions. The Bulldogs earned a ranking of No. 1 in the nation last season and finished with 10 wins, which is excellent for that program.

Between last season’s team success, his offensive resume with Tim Tebow and Dak Prescott and his insistence that he’d rather stay in Starkville than pursue a bigger job elsewhere have thrusted him to a high pedestal with the fan base.

Freeze holds a slight recruiting edge, but Mullen’s on-field results last year were more impressive. He got a new contract as well and should be able to coach Mississippi State for years to come.

10. Gus Malzahn, Auburn: Entering his third year, Malzahn is two years removed from one of the greatest turnarounds in SEC history. He engineered a nine-win improvement in a single season, taking a team that went 0-8 in SEC play (2012) and winning an SEC championship (2013).

Last season was disappointing, especially on defense. But Malzahn hired coordinator Will Muschamp, the highest-paid assistant coach in the country, and improved the personnel on that side of the ball. His program is recruiting well. He’s a proven SEC offensive commodity dating back to his coordinator days at Arkansas and Auburn. He also has a chance to improve to 2-1 against Nick Saban in what looks like a toss-up game at Jordan-Hare Stadium.

Auburn is the preseason SEC favorite, according to the media. It will be difficult to live up to that billing, but if Malzahn manages it, he’ll move into the upper tier of coaches in the SEC immediately.

WOULD REQUIRE A MAJOR SCANDAL TO REMOVE

11. Steve Spurrier, South Carolina: For all the fuss this offseason, we forget that Spurrier is one year removed from back-to-back-to-back 11-win seasons. At South Carolina.

Spurrier has rebounded nicely in recruiting after making ill-advised public comments about considering retirement soon. But whomever eventually replaces Spurrier must face unrealistic expectations. For a while, the man turned the Gamecocks into a certifiable top 10 program nationally.

If South Carolina struggles even more in 2015 — or misses a bowl game — there will be some upset fans. After all, they got a taste of the good stuff from 2011-13. But this is Spurrier’s job to keep barring a major scandal until he’s ready to head to Crescent Beach for good.

12. Gary Pinkel, Missouri: Just two seasons ago, Pinkel’s job appeared in serious jeopardy. Then he won back-to-back SEC East titles as a major underdog. That’s five division crowns in eight years for Mizzou, dating back to its Big 12 membership. The team won 23 games the last two years and sent 10 players to the NFL draft.

Even if the Tigers give way to resurgent Florida and Tennessee programs, Pinkel is the all-time winningest coach at Missouri and has earned the right to stay as long as he wants.

13. Nick Saban, Alabama: The three national championships are impressive. Seven consecutive top 10 finishes — in the SEC West, with the world gunning for him — is more impressive.

Saban already has a statue of himself outside of Bryant-Denny Stadium, which may need a second dash some day. Whether or not he flirted with Texas, he’ll be 64 years old on Halloween. A new start now seems out of the question.

The man has built his career on — well, building. But he’s finally embraced the challenge of long-term “king of the hill” status. It’s almost impossible to see him anywhere other than the Alabama sideline until he decides to retire.

HONEYMOON PHASE

14. Jim McElwain, Florida: SEC coaches just don’t get fired after one year. Not unless they were hired under an interim premise (John L. Smith) or commit some egregious, deeply-reported mistakes (Mike Price).

The Gators in particular need stability. For example, the team has employed seven wide receivers coaches in the last seven years.

Almost no one expects Florida to compete on a national level in 2015. McElwain has done well to manage early expectations, and seems to be taking the long-haul approach to constructing a championship contender. We’re at least three months from forming a meaningful opinion of the job McElwain is doing in Gainesville.