Key storylines and a prediction as Ole Miss battles Indiana in the Outback Bowl

Ole Miss will end Year 1 of the Lane Kiffin era on Saturday with a tilt with Indiana. The Hoosiers nipped the heels of the Ohio State Buckeyes to contend for a Big Ten Championship and could possibly be the best opponent the Rebels have faced outside of Alabama, and perhaps, Florida depending on the lens through which you view Dan Mullen’s third year in Gainesville.

Here are 4 things to watch and a prediction for Ole Miss’ first bowl game since 2015.

1. The receiving corps

This storyline as inevitable heading into 2021 and was expedited when Elijah Moore and tight end Kenny Yeboah decided to opt out before the LSU game. Ole Miss lost, 53-48, in the final game of the regular season in which Matt Corral turned the football over 6 times. While the offensive dysfunction that led to the defeat is undoubtedly largely on Corral’s shoulders, the receivers did not do their part to fill the seismic void Moore and Yeboah left behind. In addition to the 5 interceptions and a fumble, Corral was sacked twice and LSU disrupted Ole Miss’ run game early on in the contest.

Who does Ole Miss count on against IU? However grim or optimistic that answer may be, it is likely not changing much between now and and the start of the 2021 season. Will Jonathan Mingo realize his potential. Will Braylon Sanders be healthy enough to play? His return in 2021 is hardly guaranteed regardless. Who Ole Miss’ primary target is and how successful they are in targeting them will important, not only for this game, but for this team’s ceiling in 2021.

2. How does Corral handle adversity?

About those aforementioned 6 turnovers … how does Corral respond? He bounced back after an earlier turnover fest at Arkansas. Rebounding this time won’t be as easy against a stout IU defense that made Justin Fields look rushed and uncomfortable.

Indiana led the Big Ten with 17 interceptions in 7 games, as well as sacks with 23. Former Ole Miss assistants (Indiana safeties coach) Jason Jones and (Hoosiers defensive coordinator) Kane Wommack have cultivated an athletic secondary that has the freedom to take risks as it pertains to reading routes and creating turnovers. How Corral responds against this tested group will — fairly or unfairly — shape the narrative surrounding the quarterback position heading the first full offseason under Kiffin.

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3. Who totes the rock

Jerrion Ealy left the LSU game early in the second half with an injured ankle. True freshman Henry Parrish seems to be second in the pecking order in terms of carries in place of Snoop Conner. Parrish carried the football 16 times for 82 yards compared to just 3 touches for Conner — all of which came out of necessity after Ealy left. Conner was a late addition to the 2019 recruiting class and was terrific as a freshman. But his role, usage and success changed under Kiffin. If Ealy is limited or unavailable, keep an eye on who gets the majority of the carries and when they are awarded them. It will give you a good idea of what Ole Miss’ running game will look like in 2021.

4. Will the Rebels get to Jack Tuttle?

Indiana’s offense is short-handed. Star quarterback Michael Penix Jr. tore his ACL and was replaced by Tuttle in a season-finale road win at Wisconsin. Indiana’s offensive line has been pretty sturdy for Penix and Tuttle this season and Ole Mis has boasted the worst pass rush in the SEC. Can the Rebels find guys to get pressure on Tuttle? Will it be someone other than Sam Williams? Ole Miss needs pass rushers in abundance. They addressed their interior struggles against the run in their 2021 recruiting class but their athleticism on the edge is still in question. It is worth monitoring who plays in passing situations opposite of Williams and how successful they are because that is a dire position of need for next year and beyond.

Prediction: Indiana wins 42-24

I just do not see it for Ole Miss. Indiana’s defense rushes the passer with great success and their secondary takes advantages of mistakes. The Rebels defense will not be able to generate enough stops to keep them in it and is ill-equipped overcome the inevitable poor positions Corral will put them in at least a time or two in this game. Kiffin and the Rebels are headed in the right direction but the defense isn’t there yet and Indiana will expose that.

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