Ole Miss takes on Baylor in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day at 8:45 p.m. The Rebels will have a chance to win 11 games for the first time in program history in this matchup of top-10 teams.

Here are 5 reasons Ole Miss will win the game and pick up its program-record 11th victory.

5. Matt Corral is fully healthy … and all-in

Bowl season is opt-out season. Not for Matt Corral.

Corral spent most of the 2nd half of the season battling an ankle injury he suffered during a win at Tennessee, when he willed the team to victory via 30 carries. It was the most carries by an Ole Miss player in a game since 2007, and that was done by BenJarvus Green-Ellis — a running back. Corral was pretty limited with his feet due to the ankle injury, particularly after he re-aggravated it at Auburn on Oct. 30. It adversely affected the Rebels’ running game as a result. Corral got healthier leading up to the Egg Bowl, and we saw him extend plays with his feet more often in that game. Ole Miss had a better offense because of it.

With Baylor’s pass rush being as strong as it is, there will be opportunities for Corral in the running game, particularly in the red zone in some read-option concepts. This could be the difference in this game.

4. Bend but don’t break defense

Dave Aranda hinted at this in his press conference this week, but Ole Miss’ bend-but-don’t-break defensive approach is a decent matchup against Baylor’s offense. The Bears have moved the ball well between the 20s, primarily with an effective running game that utilizes a lot of outside zone plays. But they have been prone to kicking field goals in the red zone, and Ole Miss’ ability to get off the field near the goal line will prove to be huge in this game. I think the Rebels hold Baylor to a couple of field goals, allowing the offense to create separation on the scoreboard.

3. Sam Williams and the Ole Miss pass rush

Baylor has a pair of good tackles, but they will have their hands full with Sam Williams and Cedric Johnson. The Rebels should be able to flush Gerry Bohanon outside the pocket and force him to make difficult throws, and they have the speed at linebacker to corral Bohanon and keep him from crushing Ole Miss with his feet. Ole Miss has fared well against mobile quarterbacks, and this will be one of the better pass rushes the Baylor offensive line has faced.

2. Tempo

Aranda is a terrific defensive mind. He mixes up looks frequently and is good at confusing opposing quarterbacks. Ole Miss’ uptempo offense will limit what Baylor can do from a schematic standpoint. I think the Rebels will go uptempo pretty much the entire game and prevent Baylor from substituting. This will put a lot of pressure on the Bears’ defense, and Corral will eventually make it pay for mistakes. Tempo will limit Baylor’s advantage defensively in terms of Aranda’s scheme.

1. Ole Miss has the better quarterback

All things considered, Ole Miss will win this game because it has Corral at quarterback and Baylor does not. Bohanon is a good player and has run the Bears’ offense well. But this is the final chapter of an illustrious career for Corral, and he will be the difference in this game as he rides out of the program on a high note. Corral will make 3 or 4 plays that change the trajectory of this game.