Since Nick Saban arrived in Tuscaloosa in 2007, the Alabama Crimson Tide have never gone more than 3 seasons without winning a national championship.

Like clockwork, the next Tide title has always been right around the corner.

So, on the 1st day of 2024, in the most prestigious bowl game there is, arguably the most prestigious program there is in college football history will play for the opportunity to keep that 3-season championship cycle afloat.

All Alabama has to do is find a way to slay a program that could also claim to be the most illustrious in the annals of the sport, a program that hasn’t tasted national championship glory since 1997, a program that’s looking to get back to doing what Saban’s teams have done regularly over the past 15 years.

Michigan, the undefeated top seed in the College Football Playoff, stands in the way of what Bama has built since Saban captured the 1st of his 6 titles in T-Town in 2009. For the Crimson Tide to creep within 1 victory of Saban’s 7th (and 8th overall), they’ll have to find a way to do what nobody has been able to against the Wolverines this season.

Bama is hardly ever an underdog, especially in a Playoff setting with the highest stakes. But on New Year’s Day in Pasadena, this Tide team will attempt to play the role of pesky, 4th-seeded underdog. A very slight dog, at least.

So, after overcoming a Week 2 home loss to Texas that many thought (and many haters hoped) would sink a season and a dynasty, what needs to happen for Alabama to bully its way into another national championship game against either Washington or Texas?

Well, a lot of things against Jim Harbaugh’s latest title contender in Ann Arbor.

But right now, we’ll narrow it to the 5 biggest issues that Bama needs to deal with to topple Michigan in the Rose Bowl and get to Houston the following Monday, where that next championship would yet again be right around the corner.

1. Can Bama corral Corum?

This is where it all begins — and possibly ends for the Tide. Shutting down, or at least limiting, Blake Corum would be cutting off the head of the snake, but allowing Corum to explode on a stage he’s quite familiar with would probably mean Michigan’s controlling the pace of the game. Yes, backfield sidekick Donovan Edwards is a big threat, too, but The Corum Factor in this matchup is king. Corum has been the engine of the Michigan offense for a few years now. He’s been the heart and soul of the program, he’s been through the wars, and he wears the scars of the Wolverines’ Playoff semifinal losses from 2021 and 2022.

Now, he’s a senior, and after another 1,000-yard season to go with a whopping 24 rushing touchdowns in 2023, Corum is talking like an all-time Michigan legend who’s rock star college career is missing 1 really big, important thing. “We are the No. 1 team in the nation, and we’re going to treat it as such,” Corum told reporters recently. “We’re already motivated to get over the hump after being there.” In other words, he knows Alabama is Alabama, but he feels like the Wolverines have done the suffering, have waited their turn and then some, and that they’re the “top dog” in this glitzy semifinal showdown.

All of Corum’s words, combined with his ability to alter this game one way or another, makes the Tide’s task of stopping him that much more crucial. He is approaching the end of his collegiate career, has been 1 of the sport’s best players on 1 of the sport’s best teams the past few years, and he’s supremely motivated and confident about his team’s ability to finally climb the mountain. Corum knows that everything is at stake, and he seems to be a player who’s refusing to accept another Playoff failure. Corum couldn’t play in last season’s Playoff loss to TCU because of a knee injury, and he was a non-factor with 3 carries for 13 yards in the 2021 Playoff loss to Georgia. On Monday, Corum has an opportunity to finally reverse all of that Playoff frustration, but if he can’t, if Kevin Steele’s defense has enough answers, then Michigan could be looking at 3 consecutive semifinal setbacks.

2. What version of Jase McClellan will Bama get?

On Wednesday, Saban told reporters that his starting running back, Jase McClellan, was ready to roll at the Rose Bowl after missing the SEC title game with a sprained ankle. Alabama beat Georgia without McClellan, and the Tide were able to go 11-1 in the regular season as McClellan battled this injury throughout the fall. Bama navigated its way back to the Playoff while getting solid (803 yards rushing, 6 touchdowns) production from the preseason Maxwell Award nominee. That’s all well and good.

But now the Tide are at the tipping point of their season, and McClellan is at yet another personal tipping point in a career full of too many injuries and obstacles and not enough calm seas. Saban was upbeat about McClellan, saying that he was “doing great, looks good” and that the time off has paid off. Everything involving McClellan and his ability to impact Bama’s offense seems to be trending in the right direction. But until he gets out there and we see McClellan against those elite Michigan linebackers, we won’t truly know what Jase McClellan that Alabama is getting.

Roydell Williams was a nice complementary back, finishing with 561 yards and 5 TDs, and he held down the fort with 64 yards and a touchdown in the SEC title game. But logic would tell you that if McClellan, who aggravated the injury in the Iron Bowl a full month ago, is hampered in any way, then the Tide running game is going to struggle and those Jalen Milroe keepers might be a little easier to defend. We know McClellan will be super motivated, but we’ll also likely know pretty early Monday whether McClellan’s body can do what his mind wants it to.

3. Can the Tide score more than 24?

Michigan’s defense is overflowing with talent, including those ferocious linebackers. The Wolverines punished offenses in 2023, allowing a combined 16 points in 3 nonconference wins before the dominance continued in Big Ten play. In its first 7 conference games, Michigan allowed the following point totals: 7, 7, 10, 7, 0, 13, 15. The latter 1, by the way, was at Happy Valley, amid the White Out, and the Wolverines weren’t intimidated in the least in a 24-15 victory. Only in Michigan’s final 2 Big Ten games, at Maryland and in the home showdown against Ohio State, did it allow more than 15, giving up 24 points in each of those games to finish off an undefeated conference run before blanking Iowa, 26-0, in the Big Ten title game.

You never quite know, especially in a Playoff game (just ask Michigan the past 2 years), but you’d think that Alabama would have to score more than 24 points to win, right? Michigan is averaging 36.7 points per game this season, and asking the Tide defense to hold the Wolverines in the low-20s is probably a little much, right? Alabama probably needs to be the first team to break that 24-point threshold to be the first team to beat Michigan in 2023.

4. Can Bama get in JJ McCarthy’s head early?

Harbaugh recently deemed his quarterback “NFL ready.” That’s great and all, but is the junior finally ready to win a College Football Playoff game after 2 forgettable semifinal performances against Georgia and TCU? (Well, OK, technically Cade McNamara started the 2021 Playoff game against Georgia before McCarthy relieved him.) You would think the answer to that question is “yes,” too, right? McCarthy has seemingly been through it all and accomplished so much during his time in Ann Arbor, and if he’s not ready to finally get over the semifinal hump against Bama then when will he ever be?

We could very well know quickly. Michigan has gotten off to dreadful starts in its 2 Playoff losses, and McCarthy was a big part of that against TCU. If Alabama’s defense can have its way early, it just might be a “hear we go again” thing for McCarthy and the Wolverines, who have trailed 14-0 after the 1st quarter in each of their semifinal losses. Michigan needs a great start so badly, and McCarthy needs it, too. There is a ton of pressure on the Wolverines and McCarthy to finally get it done in this spot, and that kind of pressure can work either way.

The nation will be watching, including those NFL scouts who Harbaugh was trying to convince.

5. Isn’t Michigan due to break through?

This has everything to do with the odds factor and Michigan falling short in this very spot the past 2 seasons. In 2021, the Wolverines ran into Stetson Bennett and Georgia, and that possessed Bulldogs team overwhelmed Michigan from the jump in a 34-11 rout. McCarthy relieved McNamara and completed just 7 passes, and it just wasn’t Michigan’s time yet.

Then next season happened, Michigan indeed returned to the Playoff with a vengeance. Surely, they would take care of underdog TCU in the semifinals and maybe get another shot at Georgia in the title game. Then it all went wrong again, as Michigan fell behind early once more and was chasing the game all night. The Wolverines inexplicably allowed 51 points in a 51-45 loss that stung as much as any in program history, considering the circumstances. This wasn’t Georgia, and there wasn’t a “1st time” excuse like the year before. Then TCU got smashed by the Bulldogs in the title game, and Michigan’s loss looked even worse.

Michigan’s motivation clearly is to finally get over the hump. Facing Alabama adds more fuel to the fire, as does the fact many view the Wolverines as the underdog even though they’re the favorite. Michigan is 13-0, the No. 1 seed, and Michigan didn’t need a miracle just to beat an above-average Auburn team. Michigan also seems like the team that’s way overdue to break through, that has the quarterback who’ll be playing in his 3rd Playoff and not his 1st, and then throw in the whole “third time is the charm” thing. Alabama will be dealing with all of these intangibles, in addition to a heck of a Michigan team, when the Rose Bowl kicks off on Monday.

The Wolverines are absolutely sure this time is finally their time, that their long-awaited national title is right around the corner.

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