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The midweek slate in the SEC features 3 games on Tuesday and 3 games on Wednesday. Kentucky at Tennessee headlines the card on Tuesday night as a battle of top-15 teams in the updated AP poll. Another top-15 matchup takes place on Wednesday night when Mississippi State hosts Alabama at Humphrey Coliseum.
For my midweek slip, I’m focusing on the Tuesday games. Below are the 3 bets I’m making on the midweek SEC action.
Last week: 1-2
2024-25 record: 4-5
Kentucky team total points under 64.5 (+148 via FanDuel)
Bart Torvik and KenPom both project Tennessee to hold Kentucky to 68 points. EvanMiya projects 67 points from Kentucky. The standard team total at most major sportsbooks was 67.5 at the time of publication, and in most spots it feels like Vegas has this game pretty well nailed. I’m taking an alternate point total for the Wildcats here because I think we’re undervaluing the performance at Auburn over the weekend — at least to a degree. This is a much riskier play, but given the juice and recent results from Tennessee, I think it’s worth the risk. Tennessee went on the road and made the best team in the country play at Tennessee’s pace. The Tigers won 53-51, yes, but Tennessee dictated the terms. Now, UT returns home, where it is holding SEC opponents to 54.7 points per game so far. Kentucky, losers in 2 straight, fell into a major first-half hole against Vanderbilt and wound up scoring just 69 points. Turnovers were a serious issue. The Vols have the best defense in the country, per KenPom’s adjusted efficiency metrics. They defend the 3-point line better than anyone and block shots in the paint without fouling. Kentucky’s defense has been atrocious in league play — dead last in defensive efficiency, per KenPom — and if UT is making Kentucky take it out from under the basket, the Vols will have every advantage.
Georgia vs. South Carolina total under 131.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
Both of these teams are sliding into this matchup. Both lean heavily on their defenses to keep them in games. Both play at tempos that rank outside the top 200 nationally, per KenPom. This game should be a low-scoring, grind-it-out affair. South Carolina has lost 7 straight and is still searching for its first win in conference play. The Gamecocks got close last week, nearly upsetting Florida at home and then taking Mississippi State to overtime. That game against the Bulldogs featured 125 combined points and it had an extra 5 minutes added onto the end. Georgia, meanwhile, has lost 4 straight and just got completely flattened by Florida on the road. It gave up a season-high 89 points in the loss. I like Mike White’s group to bounce back, at least defensively. They’re better on that end of the floor than they showed against the Gators. Georgia ranks 13th nationally in effective field goal percentage defense, 14th in block rate, and 33rd in 2-point percentage defense. It’s a solid matchup against an offense that relies on 2s for the bulk of its points. Both offenses struggle from 3-point range and turn the basketball over on nearly 1 in 5 possessions.
Texas A&M -8.5 vs. Oklahoma (-108 via DraftKings)
The Aggies had a truly wild week of basketball last week. They stormed back to upset Ole Miss on the road, closing on an 11-2 run and hitting a go-ahead 3 with 13 seconds left in a 63-62 win. Then, Texas A&M went to Austin, built a 22-point second-half lead, and watched it evaporate. The Longhorns scored with 3 seconds remaining to win 70-69. A&M has been volatile. I think that might change on Tuesday night. The Aggies won the first meeting with Oklahoma on the road, 80-78. They did so despite missing lead guard Wade Taylor IV, allowing the Sooners to shoot 14-of-24 from 3-point range, and digging an 18-point hole for themselves with 17 minutes remaining in the game. A&M had 13 steals in the game, 17 offensive rebounds, and a 27-12 advantage in shot attempts at the rim — all signs to me that A&M got what it wanted to get against the Sooners. OU also got an otherworldly shooting performance from guard Brycen Goodine, who made 9 of his 11 triples and scored 34 points. In the 4 games since, Goodine has 20 points total. He went 1-for-7 from deep in the ensuing game and then went 0-for-3 the next time out. The first game being as close as it was feels flukey. I expect Buzz Williams to have some appropriate adjustments from the first meeting, and with Taylor back on the floor for the Aggies, I like A&M to take a break from the dramatic finishes.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.