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We had a mid-week slate of games in the SEC that was completely bonkers. Florida beat South Carolina, Arkansas beat Georgia, and Texas A&M beat Ole Miss. During those 3 games, the winning teams led for a combined 46 seconds out of 120 minutes of game time. If we get anything close to that level of drama, Saturday will be one of the best days of college basketball we see all season.
Kentucky plays Vanderbilt on the road. Texas A&M and Texas tangle. Ole Miss plays Mizzou in a ranked-on-ranked matchup. And Tennessee visits Neville Arena in the headliner of the day against Auburn.
Here’s how I’m betting the weekend.
2024-25 record: 3-3
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Florida vs. Georgia total under 148.5 (-115 via ESPN Bet)
The under has cashed in 13 of Georgia’s 19 games so far. And that’s been the play in Gator games as well, with the under hitting 12 times. Georgia is going to find it difficult to score on this defense, so it behooves the Dawgs to try and muddy this game up. They’re already one of the slowest teams in Division I basketball, and they lean heavily on their defense to keep them in games. The Bulldogs are top-25 nationally in block percentage, 2-point defense, and 3-point defense, per KenPom. They’ve had the best effective field goal defense of any SEC team since league play began, and rank behind only Ole Miss and Tennessee in defensive efficiency in league play. While Georgia is slumping a bit, I still expect Mike White’s group to make things tough on Florida. And while the Gators have an exceptional offense, they’re comfortable winning tight. They beat Arkansas on the road 71-63 and South Carolina on the road 70-69. If the Dawgs can stay close, it’ll be a game played in the high 60s. If the Dawgs are following up misses with Gator buckets, this will look like the Tennessee game.
Auburn vs. Tennessee total over 140.5 (-105 via FanDuel)
Since taking over at Tennessee, Rick Barnes is 38-38-1 against the spread as an underdog. That includes a 22-23 ATS record in road games as a dog. Over that same period of time, Bruce Pearl has covered the spread in 62% of his games as a home favorite — the best mark in the SEC. Auburn has consistently produced while Tennessee has been a bit more scattershot, and that trend applies to this season. Auburn has been the model of consistency, weathering an extended stretch without its best player and establishing itself as the clear-cut No. 1 team in college basketball. Tennessee, meanwhile, got flattened a few weeks ago by Florida and lost again to Vanderbilt last weekend. Away from home, the Vols have been a touch off. And I think they’re going to have to find a way to score to upset this Tiger team. Johni Broome is officially listed as questionable for the game. In his absence, Tahaad Pettiford has stepped up in a major way. He provided 12 points and 3 assists in the win over Mississippi State, then followed that up with a 24-point game on the road against Georgia.
Alabama -15.5 vs. LSU (-120 via FanDuel)
The Crimson Tide are 3-1 ATS this season as a double-digit favorite against SEC opponents. Under Nate Oats, they are 14-14 ATS as a double-digit favorite in regular-season league games. The Crimson Tide are coming off consecutive 100-point performances; they’ve responded well to the 64-point dud they put up at home against Ole Miss on Jan. 14. LSU, meanwhile, has lost 4 of 5 to open conference play and has an offense that ranks outside the top 100 in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom. Only the best defense in the SEC has been able to corral Oats’ bunch, and LSU doesn’t exactly have that. KenPom projects a 15-point Alabama win. Bart Torvik projects a 19-point Alabama win. And EvanMiya projects a 21-point Alabama win. I’m siding with the models. Alabama might blow the doors off this Tiger team. They have touched 70 points only twice in conference play so far and, against top-50 teams in KenPom’s ratings, the Tigers are averaging 65 points per game. They don’t steal possessions, they don’t take care of the basketball, and they don’t knock down 3s at a good enough clip.
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.