March Madness: Reseeding the Sweet 16 after chalky opening weekend

The opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament featured some chaos, but it wasn’t quite madness.

Kentucky lost to a 14, but the Wildcats were fatally flawed. Saint Mary’s lost to a 12, but Grand Canyon was a strong 12 and Alabama ended the run in the second round. Kansas almost lost to a 13. Auburn did lose to a 13. And Wisconsin lost to an equally strong 12, but Duke dispatched the James Madison Dukes in the second round.

All 4 No. 1 seeds made it through unscathed. In the first round, the top seeds won by an average of 33.8 points. In the second round, they won by an average of 19.3 points. (Purdue made up for Houston’s overtime escape.)

From 2005-09, every single one of the No. 1 seeds made it out of their respective opening weekends. This year’s occurrence marks just the fourth time it has happened since (in 13 tournaments).

Beyond that, every 2-seed is still standing as well. It’s only the second tournament since 2009 where each of the top 8 teams all advanced past the opening weekend.

In each of the 4 regions, 3 of the top 4 seeds all advanced to the Sweet 16. After a regular season where top-10 teams were dropping like flies on a weekly basis, we’ve had a very chalky postseason.

The closest facsimile would be 2019, when the top 4 seeds all made it out of the East and West Regions, the top 3 seeds and a 5 made it out of the Midwest, and the top 3 seeds and a 12 made it out of the South. That year’s Final Four featured a 1-seed (Virginia, the champ), a 2-seed, a 3-seed (Texas Tech, the runner-up), and a 5-seed.

This year, we have a pair of 5-seeds (San Diego State, Gonzaga), a 6-seed (Clemson), and an 11-seed (NC State) trying to crash the party.

So with the Sweet 16 days away, let’s reseed everyone. And just a note: I don’t care about logistics the way a committee putting together a field would, I’m only interested in ranking the remaining teams 1-16.

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1 Purdue Boilermakers (No. 1 overall)

Original: 1-seed (No. 3 overall)

After smashing Grambling behind one of those “I’m still him” performances from Zach Edey, Purdue had perhaps the most impressive performance of the second round. The Boilermakers beat Utah State 106-67 with a surgical performance on the offensive end of the floor and a defense that caused the Aggies to abandon all fundamentals and logic. Utah State’s gameplan was to throw bodies at Edey every time he touched it. In the past, Purdue has fizzled out of the tournament because no one around the POTY did anything. Sunday, the other guys did lots of things.

Trey Kaufman-Renn scored the first 8 points and finished with 18. Purdue hit 11 triples as a team. The Boilermakers had 29 assists on 38 makes. So far this tournament, the Boilermakers have shot 52% from the field, shot 43% from 3, and assisted on 79% of their makes. There is not a more challenging team to stop left in the field.

Purdue is still +600 to win the national championship at FanDuel, with UConn the betting favorite. I’m laying a wager on the team that seems to have figured it out.

1 UConn Huskies (No. 2 overall)

Original: 1-seed (No. 1 overall)

The 7-foot-2 Donovan Clingan scored 19 points, grabbed 8 boards, and dished 4 assists in just 20 minutes on the court against Stetson. UConn rolled; it didn’t need the star center to do much more. But he was incredibly efficient with his minutes, nonetheless. Clingan turned around and nearly triple-doubled with points, rebounds, and blocks (!!!) in the 17-point win over Northwestern. He had 14 points, 14 boards, and 8 blocked shots. So far, he’s shooting 78% from the field.

Have fun with that.

UConn peddled through a shooting lull from the 3-point line in the second half on Sunday, but it didn’t matter because they led by 22 points at halftime and stretched the lead to 30 in the first 6:33 of the second half.

1 North Carolina Tar Heels (No. 3 overall)

Original: 1-seed (No. 4 overall)

Elliot Cadeau hasn’t gotten going yet, but the Tar Heels have Armando Bacot and RJ Davis to mitigate that concern. Both have been excellent through the first 2 games — a 90-62 win over Wagner, then an 85-69 win over Michigan State.

Beating Tom Izzo in the tournament is no joke, and the Heels got major contributions from the non-Bacot/Davis parts of their lineup to do so. Cormac Ryan has scored 27 points through his first 2 games and gone 4-of-11 from 3. Harrison Ingram had his most assertive offensive performance (17 points, 6-11 FG) since March 2.

Carolina trailed MSU 26-14 at the 9:37 mark of the first half. Then it embarked on a 23-3 run that flipped the game. The Heels withstood a second-half push and then put the game to bed.

1 Arizona Wildcats (No. 4 overall)

Original: 2-seed (No. 6 overall)

We’ve always known Tommy Lloyd can coach up whirlwind offenses. Arizona has looked the part on that end through its first two games — an 85-65 win over 15-seed Longbeach State and a 78-68 win over 7-seed Dayton. Two questions faced the Wildcats entering the postseason. Which Kylan Boswell were they going to get? And was the defense from the regular season legit?

Boswell scored a game-high 20 points and dished 8 assists in the first round. Better yet? One turnover in 32 minutes. He was quiet in the second-round win, so we’ll see in the Sweet 16 which game was the better indicator.

As for the defense, Long Beach State averaged 0.833 points per possession and shot 18% from 3. Dayton averaged 0.932 points per possession and shot 29% from 3. We’ve got an answer here. And it makes Arizona one of the most dangerous teams in the field.

2 Houston Cougars (No. 5 overall)

Original: 1-seed (No. 2 overall)

This feels like a vulnerable Houston team. Still incredibly talented and capable of winning a title. Just vulnerable. When the Cougars lost by 28 points in the Big 12 Tournament title game, coach Kelvin Sampson said injuries had piled up and taken their toll. When Texas A&M hit a 3 to send Sunday’s second-round game to overtime, Houston was once again in trouble.

Jamal Shead, LJ Cryer, J’Wan Roberts, and Emanuel Sharp all had 2 fouls in the first half. Ja’Vier Francis had 3. Cryer and Francis both fouled out in the second half. Sharp fouled out a minute into the overtime period. Texas A&M took 45 free throws and turned the ball over just 11 times in 45 minutes. Had the Aggies not missed 16 foul shots, we’d be having a different conversation.

Scoring hasn’t been an issue in the tournament for Houston. And Shead is the best individual defender left in the field. But depth is a concern, and if the Cougars are officiated the same way again they won’t be advancing.

2 Duke Blue Devils (No. 6 overall)

Original: 4-seed (No. 13 overall)

Vermont had a scoring drought of 4 minutes and 1 second in its 64-47 opening-round loss to Duke. It also had a scoring drought of 4 minutes and 41 seconds. At one point in the first half, the Catamounts missed 6 straight shots. At the end of the second half, they missed 7 straight. James Madison shot 8-for-20 in the first half of its 93-55 second-round loss to Duke. In the second half, it missed 10 of its final 12 shots.

Kyle Filipowski has scored a total of 17 points on 9 total shots in 2 games and the Blue Devils have won by a combined 55 points. Jared McCain went wild in the James Madison win, scoring 30 points while knocking down 8 (!!!) of his 11 attempts from beyond the arc. While that isn’t something that Duke can lean on every night, the defense absolutely is. The Blue Devils’ first two opponents have averaged 51 points. With a host of contributors on offense, this is a scary team if Filipowski gets it going or McCain stays hot.

ESPN BET has Duke priced at +2200 to win the title — the ninth shortest odds.

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2 Tennessee Volunteers (No. 7 overall)

Original: 2-seed (No. 5 overall)

Tennessee’s complete inability to knock down a 3-point shot proved to be its undoing in the SEC Tournament. In an 83-49 opening-round win over Saint Peter’s, things were much smoother. In a 62-58 second-round win over Texas, the outside shooting was shaky once again.

And that makes the Vols volatile. They went 3-for-25 from 3 against Texas, but managed to hold on after a 9-point lead with 4 minutes to play just slipped away. Tennessee forced 17 turnovers and converted those into 15 points, but the defensive might of this team is nothing new. Tennessee’s postseason run was always going to be built or broken by its ability to knock down shots. The Vols are uncomfortably hot and cold at the moment.

Tennessee sportsbooks have the Vols priced anywhere from +1100 to +1300 to win the title at this point.

2 Iowa State Cyclones (No. 8 overall)

Original: 2-seed (No. 8 overall)

After thumping Houston to win the Big 12 Tournament title, Iowa State won its opening-round game against South Dakota State by 17 and then beat Washington State in the second round by 11. They made 11 of their 23 triples against SDSU and 7 of 14 against Wazzu.

With this team, it feels like we’re waiting for the other shoe to drop. In the Cyclones’ last 4 games, they have made 38 triples at a 48% clip. Throughout their first 32 games, Iowa State made an average of 6 triples a game at a 34% clip. Of course, they won 8 of 10 to close out the regular season without this run of brilliant perimeter shooting but the postseason surge has been fueled by it.

How long is this run of form going to last?

3 Creighton Bluejays (No. 9 overall)

Original: 3-seed (No. 10 overall)

Creighton’s starting 5 is outstanding. And that’s good, because it’s basically them against the world right now. Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander, and Baylor Scheierman all played 38 minutes in the Jays’ 77-60 win over Creighton. Steven Ashworth played 32 minutes. Mason Miller played 25. Francisco Farabello played 18 off the bench.

In Saturday’s 86-73 double-overtime win over Oregon, Scheierman and Alexander each played the full 50. Kalkbrenner played 49. Ashworth played 42. Only 2 players saw meaningful time off the bench — Farabello in regulation, and Jasen Green in overtime. Foul trouble or injury could derail this team quickly.

But make no mistake, the Jays at full strength are excellent. They scored 1.242 points per possession in the first round and then still cracked 1.132 PPP in the second round despite shooting just 39% from the field.

3 Illinois Fighting Illini (No. 10 overall)

Original: 3-seed (No. 12 overall)

Terrence Shannon Jr. has scored 56 points in 2 NCAA Tournament games. He scored 34 points in the Big Ten Tournament title game, and he scored 40 points in the semis. Over his last 6, the dynamic guard is averaging 30.5 points per game. Illinois has the No. 1 offense in the country, according to KenPom’s adjusted offensive ratings.

A lot like Alabama, the Illini have been marked by a ridiculous offense and a mediocre defense. Through the tournament’s first 2 rounds, that defense hasn’t been an issue, though. Illinois played around with Morehead State before taking control in the second half with a 32-9 run. Against Duquesne in the second round, the Illini dropped 50 first-half points and led by 24 at the break. The path has been light to this point, and that will obviously soon change.

3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (No. 11 overall)

Original: 5-seed (No. 21 overall)

Welcome back, Zags. It’s like you never left.

Which, of course, they didn’t. Mark Few’s group is making its ninth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance. After losing Drew Timme and opening the season 11-5, Gonzaga was looking very un-Gonzaga-like. Graham Ike, a 6-9 forward who missed the 2022-23 season with an injury, has taken up the mantle for a Bulldogs group that has won 16 of its last 18 games. That includes an 86-65 win over Will Wade’s McNeese State, and then an 89-68 beatdown of Kansas.

Ike had a run of 7 straight 20-point games to close out the regular season. In the tournament, he has been uber-efficient while the Zags have been well-balanced. Ike has 31 points and 19 rebounds while shooting 13-of-17 from the field and 5-of-5 from the foul line. Five scored in double-figures against Kansas. The Bulldogs are scoring a ridiculous 1.316 points per possession in the NCAAs.

3 Marquette Golden Eagles (No. 12 overall)

Original: 2-seed (No. 7 overall)

Marquette has looked the weakest of the 2-seeds to start. It trailed Western Kentucky by 7 at halftime in the South Region’s opening-round 2-15 matchup, and it was a 4-point game with a little under 9 minutes to play in the game. The Golden Eagles blew an 11-point halftime lead against Colorado in the second round and found themselves in another tight game late. It was tied with 4:02 to play, then Colorado missed 6 of its last 7 shots.

Tyler Kolek is the straw that stirs the drink on offense, and he’s been otherwise exceptional. The senior guard has 39 points, 22 assists, and 11 rebounds through his first 2 games.

4 Alabama Crimson Tide (No. 13 overall)

Original: 4-seed (No. 16 overall)

Alabama’s “all gas, no brakes” mentality is wildly entertaining. In the first round against Charleston, the Tide were more like a tsunami that obliterated whatever was in its path. Mark Sears scored 30 points and Alabama averaged 1.380 points per possession. They made 13 3s and 24 free throws. Sure, it was only a 13-point win, but it was a 31-point game at the final under-8 timeout. Who cares about garbage time?

Nate Oats did, and he had good reason to. On Sunday, Alabama’s offense dried up. The Tide shot 37% from the field and 26% from 3. Sears powered the Crimson Tide over the finish line against Grand Canyon with 26 points and 6 assists, but the Lopes missed 14 of their 37 free throws and lost by 11. Add to it the fact that Grand Canyon forgot how to play team basketball on offense in the second half and Alabama should probably feel a little lucky to have escaped.

Or they’ll feel confident they can win when they don’t have their A game. As if a team that has scored 90-plus points 17 times this season needs more confidence.

4 Clemson Tigers (No. 14 overall)

Original: 6-seed (No. 22 overall)

What do we make of a Clemson team that lost 3 of 4 heading into the tournament — against non-tournament teams no less — thoroughly dominated New Mexico in the first round, held a 15-point second-half lead over 3-seed Baylor, watched it evaporate, and still hold on to advance to the program’s second Sweet 16 appearance this century? The Tigers have been led by Chase Hunter, who scored 21 points against New Mexico and then had 20 and 6 assists against Baylor. They’ve been the hardest team to peg thus far.

4 San Diego State Aztecs (No. 15 overall)

Original: 5-seed (No. 18 overall)

San Diego State narrowly avoided a first-round upset by beating UAB 69-65. For more than 6 minutes midway through the second half, the Aztecs scored just 5 points and saw what was a 12-point lead disappear. They also had a spell in the first half of 11 straight misses. They were much more potent in the second round, when they outscored Yale 45-21 in the first half and cruised to an 85-57 win. Jaedon LeDee has been sensational through the first two rounds, with 32 points and 8 boards in the first game and a 26-point, 9-rebound effort in the second.

4 NC State Wolfpack (No. 16 overall)

Original: 11-seed (No. 45 overall)

The Wolfpack refuse to die. Of the teams left standing, there are only 2 that sit outside the top 17 in KenPom’s rankings. Clemson is No. 23. NC State is No. 53. This is a team that wasn’t supposed to be here, especially not after a stretch of games from Jan. 20 through March 9 that saw the Wolfpack go 4-10. They lost 4 straight to close out the regular season. Then they won 5 games in 5 days to claim the ACC Tournament title and the league’s auto-bid. Now, they’ve run the win streak to 7 with an opening-round victory over Texas Tech and an overtime win over Oakland in the second round.

Ben Middlebrooks is averaging 11.5. DJ Horne is averaging 13.5. Mohamed Diara is averaging 14. And DJ Burns is averaging 20. When Middlebrooks fouled out in 14 minutes against Oakland, Michael O’Connell stepped up and supplied 12 points and 8 assists after a 0-point performance in the first round. This is an all-hands-on-deck situation. They’re averaging 1.223 points per possession with a solid 14% turnover rate in the tournament. That’s a top-25 offense. Seemingly out of nowhere.