NCAA Tournament betting picks: Finding the best-value underdogs in the Sweet 16

The NCAA Tournament is set to continue on Thursday with Sweet 16 action.

Ahead of another full weekend of games, it’s a good time to examine the betting markets to look for value on money line underdogs in the Sweet 16.

By comparing money line prices from a variety of the best sports betting apps to projections from EvanMiya’s game predictions, we can attempt to extract some value from the market.

We did this exercise prior to the first round of the tournament and shared 5 plus-EV money line underdog picks. James Madison (+195), Washington State (+105) and NC State (+195) all cashed, resulting in a net profit of 2.95 units.

Here are the 3 highest expected value bets available as of Wednesday afternoon for Sweet 16 underdogs:

Duke (+160 at ESPN Bet) over Houston

Implied odds: 38.46%
EvanMiya projection: 48.8%
Expected value: $26.88 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: +105

EvanMiya sees this game as being close to a coin flip, while the betting markets have Houston as the clear favorite. The Blue Devils were dominant against Vermont and James Madison last weekend while Houston struggled — and nearly collapsed — against Texas A&M in the round of 32. The Cougars have not played as well against elite teams this season, per EvanMiya’s relative ratings index, which is likely what’s leading to the discrepancy here. Duke is also better-suited for a slow-paced game, which is what Houston usually prefers as well.

San Diego State (+500 Caesars) over UConn

Implied odds: 16.67%
EvanMiya projection: 19.1%
Expected value: $14.60 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: +424

This is a rematch of last year’s national title game. San Diego State is 8th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency metric, which means its will be the best defense UConn has faced since Dec. 5 when it played North Carolina. UConn has won 8 consecutive NCAA Tournament games by double-digits, so this is still somewhat of a long-shot play. But there does appear to be some value on the Aztecs’ money line going into this Sweet 16 tilt.

North Carolina sports betting has officially launched! Make sure you’re signed up with one of the top North Carolina sportsbooks such as ESPN Bet so you don’t miss out on the action during the NCAA Tournament!

Clemson (+255 at Bet365) over Arizona

Implied odds: 28.17%
EvanMiya projection: 29.3%
Expected value: $4.01 on a $100 wager
Approximate break-even point: +241

There’s only a sliver of value here, but EvanMiya’s model does like the Tigers at anything above +241 on the money line. Clemson has already pulled off a couple of big upsets in this year’s Tournament and now finds itself just one win away from its first Elite Eight since 1980. Arizona hasn’t been quite as consistent over the past month or so and could be vulnerable to a team like Clemson that is solid on both ends of the floor.