SEC Tournament: Predicting Friday's quarterfinal games
NASHVILLE — And then there were 8. Thursday trimmed the SEC Tournament, but Friday is when the top 4 seeds hit the court, when the rubber meets the road. Here’s a quick peak at Friday’s quarterfinal matchups and a guess at exactly how those games will shake down in the quarterfinals of the SEC Tournament.
Mississippi State vs. Alabama
For State, the good news is that they went from an NCAA Tournament ticket in pencil to one written probably in ink. They can laminate and frame that sucker if they top the Crimson Tide. The Bulldogs have lost to the Tide twice, but both games were competitive, with Bama winning 78-67 and 66-63. Had State shot better than a combined 26-for-48 from the foul line, the results might have been different.
But aside from the rust of a few extra days of rest, there’s not much reason to think Alabama struggles here. State probably used up its season quota of luck in creeping past an ailing Florida team. Chris Jans’ squad is tough as nails and Tolu Smith will bring his A game. But in the end …
Prediction: Tide by 14. Bulldogs hang in for a half, but Bama runs away late.
Tennessee vs. Missouri
This is one of the most interesting matchups of the SEC Tournament. The 2nd-highest scoring team in SEC play and the best in 3-point accuracy (Missouri) against the stingiest scoring defense in SEC play and the team that’s second best in 3-point defense (Tennessee). But the other matchup might be bigger. Mizzou is 13th in the SEC in 3-point defense in conference play, while UT has been adequate from long range, including 10 3-pointers on Thursday.
Ultimately, this will be a battle to impose style on the other team. Mizzou wants a game in the 80s — or even higher. UT wants a game probably in the 60s — or even lower. In their 1 regular season matchup, the Tigers got their game in the 80s and picked up a buzze- beating win. This time?
Prediction: Vols by 5. UT’s turnover issues without Ziegler will help Missouri keep this game close. But the Vols will win the battle of pace, and while it won’t be a 60-55 kind of game, it won’t be a 90-85 one either. Santiago Vescovi and Josiah-Jordan James push UT into the semifinals
Arkansas vs. Texas A&M
The upside for Arkansas is that they’re absolutely too talented to be a No. 10 seed. The downside? Well, they had a game where basically everything went perfectly — they shot 56%, they outrebounded the opponent by 18 … and they held on via a missed buzzer-beater by Auburn. The odds of Texas A&M sitting back and letting Arkansas get easy shots at the rim or getting doubled up on the backboard by the Tigers are somewhere between slim and none.
Now, A&M does have a little “heavy is the head that wears the crown” issue here. This is relatively unknown territory for the Aggies, coming in as a high seed and a favorite. There’s almost always some team that comes out flat on Friday. It feels like it could be A&M, but …
Prediction: Arkansas by 6. At halftime. Then A&M wins by 6, after a 20+ turnover game for the Razorbacks.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky
Two of the SEC’s hottest teams will face off in the late quarterfinal game, and it’s frankly a pretty intriguing matchup. LSU’s size and athleticism gave the ‘Dores very few issues on Thursday. Vandy’s offensive execution is impressive, and they beat Kentucky a week ago despite shooting 13 free throws while Kentucky took 35. That said, Kentucky seems unlike to shoot 32% overall again.
Motivation is key here. Kentucky has relatively little to play for (aside from all those UK fans who use their vacation fund to go to the SEC Tournament). Meanwhile, the Commodores are playing for their NCAA lives — not that a win guarantees a Tournament spot, but it goes a good ways in that direction. A week ago, Vandy found a way, but …
Prediction: Kentucky by 2. The Wildcats are still a work in progress, but Oscar Tshiebwe still has a March itch to scratch and the guess here is that he wins this one in the final seconds.
“Prediction: Arkansas by 6. At halftime. Then A&M wins by 6, after a 20+ turnover game for the Razorbacks.”
I’ll go with Arky by 4.
“Prediction: Kentucky by 2. ”
KY by 12 for me.
“Prediction: Tide by 14. Bulldogs hang in for a half, but Bama runs away late.”
Upset for me. I’ll take MS State by 3.
Not even close on that last one.
Yep, you’re correct.
“Prediction: Arkansas by 6. At halftime. Then A&M wins by 6, after a 20+ turnover game for the Razorbacks.”
Arkansas by 8, 2 minutes before the half but up by only 1 at the half. Then, A&M by 12, after a 20+ turnover game for the Razorbacks plus a costly flagrant by and T by Muss and some foul trouble down the stretch.
Hope I’m wrong.
“Prediction: Arkansas by 6. At halftime. Then A&M wins by 6, after a 20+ turnover game for the Razorbacks.”
Arkansas by 8, 2 minutes before the half but up by only 1 at the half.
Then, A&M by 12, after a 20+ turnover game for the Razorbacks plus a costly flagrant by (someone in Cardinal and White) and T by Muss and some foul trouble down the stretch.
Hope I’m wrong.
I’d love for the Aggies to have another shot at Kentucky, but I find myself not really caring about the game with Arky as long as the Aggies keep it close.
bama wins by a lot
tn v mizzou – flip a coin
ark v ATm – flip another coin
kentucky wins by a lot
“bama wins by a lot”
Bama barely beat Ms State the last time they played them. Miss State is not a bad team in any way.
23 is a lot.
Note sure I agree with TN over MU – The Vols played yesterday, and unless their bench is a lot deeper than I think it is, I see game close in the first half and MU running away in the second. Only chance I see TN having is if they can find a way to slow the game.
Misery won on a buzzer-beater, you overestimate your chances vs the Vols.
They beat you on your floor; don’t think I’d be so dismissive of Mizzou’s chances.
Evidently not. Missery by 8
With Vandy’s center out, they will likely play 4 guards and a forward like they did in Lexington. Calipari won’t make the same mistake twice. They’ll fee Oscar until their whole team fouls out trying to keep him away from the basket. Don’t be surprised if Big O has a 30/20 game and shoots 20 FT. Vandy’ll keep it close for 2-+ minutes with their quickness advantage on the perimeter, but fatigue and foul trouble when take its toll in the second half and UK wins 10+.
20+ minutes