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It seems fitting that the Heisman Trophy went to a non-quarterback this season. When I look at the first 12-team College Football Playoff, the thing that immediately catches my eye is the lack of bonafide stars at the quarterback position. Yes, Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel is in the mix. But beyond that, the best quarterbacks are playing in non-CFP bowl games.
Nine of the top 10 quarterbacks nationally in EPA are playing (or sitting out) in non-CFP bowl games. That list includes Cam Ward and Shedeur Sanders, 2 players who are expected to be high first-round draft picks in the 2025 NFL Draft.
Instead, what we find are the best teams in the country this season. I put quite a bit of stock in Game on Paper‘s opponent-adjusted net EPA-per-play metric. Eight of the top 12 teams in that specific metric are in the CFP. Clemson and Arizona State (2 AQs) are the only teams to not rank in the top 15.
Seven of the 12 Playoff participants also have defenses that rank ninth or better in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. The 5 teams whose defenses aren’t inside the top 25 are the 5 conference champs who automatically qualified.
This isn’t new, of course. Since Cardale Jones led Ohio State to the national championship in 2014, only 3 of the last 9 title-winning quarterbacks were top-5 in EPA. Five quarterbacks have been outside the top 15.
I do wonder if, in the absence of a Herculean-type passer (a la Joe Burrow), we see chaos in this first 12-team CFP. The 2024 season was marked by volatility and parity. And yet, none of the first-round games have point spreads under a touchdown at ESPN Bet.
There’s a degree of unpredictability to this postseason that has me excited. We could get a couple of first-round blowouts. I think we could just as easily see some remarkable upsets.
Below, you’ll find my picks for every single Playoff game, all the way through the CFP National Championship.
Beyond the first-round games, you’ll find projections for each point spread. In the quarterfinals, FanDuel has hypothetical spreads for every potential matchup, and those will be listed as well.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame — First Round, Dec. 20
Against Ohio State and Michigan, Indiana averaged 3.5 yards per play, 0.304 points per play, and 11 yards per point. Every single snap was a grind. Every single point had to be strenuously earned. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been sacked 17 times all year and 9 of those came from the Wolverines and the Buckeyes. Notre Dame’s defense ranks fifth in SP+, an elite unit that eliminates the explosive plays, forces teams to grind out drives, and then punishes them for the mistakes that inevitably come when offenses have to pound the ball. Teams have been able to run on Notre Dame, but Indiana’s offense isn’t built to line up and run through a defense that has the kind of next-level talent Notre Dame boasts. I think it’s far more likely Notre Dame does to Indiana what Ohio State and Michigan did. The Irish have the personnel to wear this IU team down.
PICK: Notre Dame to cover -7 (-115 via ESPN Bet)
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State — First Round, Dec. 21
After SMU opened the ACC title game in disastrous fashion, the defense locked in and got the Ponies back into the game. SMU fumbled 3 plays into its opening drive, went 3-and-out on its second drive, and threw a pick on its fourth drive to spot Clemson a 21-7 lead after the first quarter. Clemson scored touchdowns on each of its first 3 drives, needing just 14 total plays and 136 yards to gain 21 points. Over its final 11 offensive possessions (excluding 3 runs that ran out the final 35 seconds of the first half), Clemson averaged 3.3 yards per play with 7 punts. This is a wonderful run-stopping defense, and SMU proved it would scale against a Playoff-caliber opponent. With Penn State, SMU can stack the box and dare Drew Allar to beat it over the top with a collection of wide receivers that just won’t frighten many top-end defenses. With Penn State’s penchant for blowing it in big games — since winning the Big Ten in 2016, James Franklin is 4-17 against AP Top 15 teams — a tight game would have everyone in Happy Valley spooked. I think Penn State’s talent ultimately wins out, but I don’t think this SMU team is a pushover either.
PICK: SMU to cover +8.5 (-105 via BetMGM), Penn State to win outright (ML -310 via DraftKings)
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas — First Round, Dec. 21
I think the Texas defense can make life difficult for a Clemson offense that has struggled against similar competition. But I’m also not convinced the Texas offense can run away with this football game. Quarterback Quinn Ewers didn’t seem healthy to close out the regular season. Wideout Isaiah Bond has been a no-show in the biggest moments. Steve Sarkisian has shown a reluctance to attack the middle of the field with the vertical pass game despite Texas possessing one of the better tight ends in the game (Gunnar Helm). Texas has managed touchdowns on just 2 of its 8 trips to the red zone in its last 2 games. And the offense has scored points from only 3 of its 13 opening drives this season. They’re more likely to turn the football over than they are to score on opening drives this year, which is remarkable considering Sarkisian’s reputation as a game-scripter. Something just seems off. Texas wins, but it’s closer than it should be.
PICK: Clemson to cover +12 (-110 via DraftKings), Texas to win outright (ML -400 via BetMGM)
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State — First Round, Dec. 21
The Vols give up 2.8 yards per carry, which ranks fourth nationally. Per Game on Paper, the UT defense sits in the 90th percentile for stuff rate, in the 96th percentile for line yards allowed, in the 97th percentile for EPA per run allowed, and in the 99th percentile for opportunity rate allowed. The defensive front is winning and the second level is crashing hard to the ball to clean up everything else. This will be the best defense Ohio State has seen all year, and if it can’t run the football — which it has struggled to do at times against bigger, more athletic fronts — I don’t trust the Buckeyes. After a so-so regular season, this could be the game where Nico Iamaleava busts out. Ohio State’s corners are grabby and way too beatable. Tennessee has the receivers to exploit those matchups on the outside. With that in mind, this becomes a sneaky intriguing game for Bru McCoy. I’d look for Josh Heupel to have something for him given Ohio State’s struggles at both outside corner spots this year. Iamaleava has an adjusted completion percentage of just 38.6% on throws of at least 20 yards this season. He averaged 1.3 completions on 3.7 attempts per game on those throws. What does that number look like when this game is over? If he’s something like 3-for-5, Tennessee wins. If he’s 1-for-4, Tennessee is probably losing. I’m going out on a limb, banking on the former happening, and picking this to be the only “upset” of the first round.
PICK: Tennessee to win outright (ML +240 via BetMGM)
No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State — Quarterfinal, Dec. 31 (Fiesta Bowl)
Projection: Penn State -8.5 | FanDuel: Penn State -11.5
No one has been able to slow Ashton Jeanty this year. No one. The bruising tailback from Boise State stands upright in the backfield, takes the handoff, plows into an 8- or 9-man box, bounces off a couple of tacklers, and gets to the sideline to create a footrace. The contact balance is special. The pairing of athleticism and strength is next-level. Boise State has been much more reluctant to use him as a weapon out of the backfield in the passing game, but that’s something it found success with a year ago. He’s the engine. Per Pro Football Focus, he has 1,889 yards after contact this season, more than 63 other FBS teams have total rushing yards on the year. His 134 missed tackles forced are a PFF-era record (since 2014). Boise State’s scheme is remarkably balanced between zone running and gap schemes, and Jeanty is averaging north of 10 yards per carry when running at either tackle. Entering the season, Oklahoma State’s Chuba Hubbard (2019) was the last FBS tailback to have more than 6 carries that gained at least 50 yards in a single season. Jeanty has 12 such runs.
But the Mountain West’s best run defense (UNLV by rushing success rate) would be the Big Ten’s seventh-best. This is a step up in competition that Boise State has not had to make since September when the Broncos visited Eugene, Oregon. When Jeanty faced the Ducks, he ran for 192 yards and 3 scores on 25 carries. I imagine that game will be heavily referenced if these 2 teams face off. Per Game on Paper, Penn State’s defense ranks 29th nationally in rushing success rate allowed. Oregon ranks 98th. The run defense has been the Achilles heel for the Ducks all season. Penn State fans will know that intimately. Boise will find it much tougher to run on Penn State and I don’t see a reason for Penn State to give Jeanty light boxes early on. Boise State quarterback Maddux Madsen is going to have to beat Tom Allen’s defense.
The other way, Boise State’s defense is a problem. The Broncos give up far too many explosive plays and that was a major issue in the Oregon game. The Ducks had an 18% explosive play rate that day and hit a couple of huge shots in the pass game. While Boise State has struggled on third down at times this year, Oregon was far better on first down. Dillon Gabriel completed all 11 of his passes on first down against the Broncos and the Ducks averaged 9 yards per play. And that was before Oregon’s offense started operating at peak efficiency.
In the MWC title game, Boise State started 6 defensive backs, 3 down linemen, and a 6-foot-3, 253-pound edge rusher. Penn State should be able to run the ball effectively on early downs, which will give Andy Kotelnicki access to some of his gadget plays for Tyler Warren. Penn State takes this by 2 scores.
PICK: Penn State to win by more than 8.5
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State — Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Peach Bowl)
Projection: Texas -10.5 | FanDuel: Texas -13.5
Here’s the quirk of the CFP’s current seeding policies — the 5-seed gets one of the better paths of any team in the field. Assuming the CFP keeps this format going forward (which is not a given), the No. 4 and No. 12 seeds are going to be the lowest-ranked conference champions. Put another way: They’ll be perceived as the weakest teams in the field.
Texas has been treated like one of college football’s elites in the betting markets all year. So long as the first-round matchup with Clemson closes as a double-digit spread, Texas will have been a double-digit favorite in 10 of its 14 games this year. The Longhorns are 5-4 ATS in the 9 games they’ve already played. Remove nonconference games against Colorado State, UTSA, and UL-Monroe, and Texas is 2-4 ATS as a double-digit favorite. That’s probably filtering with too fine-toothed a comb, but I’ve just had a hard time getting behind Texas.
The defense is outstanding and leaves very little to be desired. Florida is the only team all year to average more than 3.8 yards per carry against the Longhorns. They allow an explosive run rate of just 8.5% and, of the 445 rushing attempts the defense has faced all year, only 3 have gone for 20 yards. The Texas team speed is impressive throughout the defense; they just don’t let things break open.
While Arizona State has been an ATS machine all year, this is not a good matchup. The Sun Devils have to be able to run the ball to run their offense smoothly. They have a 62% run rate on the year and Sam Leavitt has one of the highest play-action usage rates (38.3%) of any qualified FBS quarterback (per PFF). I’m one of the biggest Cam Skattebo fans you’ll find, but the only top-25 run defense he faced this year (by EPA/run) limited him to 73 yards on 25 carries. Arizona State beat Kansas State thanks to 176 yards and 2 touchdowns on 12 receptions from Jordyn Tyson.
ASU didn’t have to feel the loss of Tyson in its Big 12 Championship Game win over Iowa State because Skattebo was ripping off massive runs to begin possessions and keeping ASU on the front foot. Tyson’s absence becomes a bigger issue here.
PICK: Texas to win by fewer than 10.5
No. 9 Tennessee vs. No. 1 Oregon — Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Rose Bowl)
Projection: Oregon -3.5 | FanDuel: Oregon -4.5
Tennessee’s defense (one of the best in the country) against Oregon’s offense (one of the best in the country) provides an unbelievable matchup. Tennessee’s run game against Oregon’s run defense will keep the Vols in this until the very end. In this portion of the bracket, we’re getting a legitimate national championship game in the quarters. (The same is true if Ohio State advances to face Oregon.)
Ashton Jeanty ran for 192 yards at 7.7 yards per carry against the Ducks. Kaytron Allen ran for 124 at 8.9 yards per carry against the Ducks. Nic Singleton ran for 105 at 10.5 per carry. Tawee Walker ran for 97 yards at 4.9 per carry. Reggie Love ran for 93 yards at 8.5 per carry. TreVeyon Henderson ran for 87 at 8.7 yards per carry. What does Dylan Sampson do against the Ducks?
Sampson ran for 1,485 yards and 22 touchdowns for Tennessee this year. And the Vols’ offensive line had a big hand in that. Tennessee is in the 97th percentile in stuff rate allowed and in the 93rd percentile for line yards per carry. UT has one of the highest run rates of any FBS team in the country, and it uses that success on the ground to give Nico Iamaleava a healthy dose of play-action. Nearly 60% of Iamaleava’s dropbacks this season have involved the play-action pass. He is significantly more efficient with that component than on straight dropbacks, so keeping the ground game churning is important.
Tennessee keeps this close, but the more seasoned Dillon Gabriel makes the necessary plays at the end of the game.
PICK: Oregon to win by fewer than 3.5 points
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia — Quarterfinal, Jan. 1 (Sugar Bowl)
Projection: Notre Dame -2.5 | FanDuel: Notre Dame -1.5
With Carson Beck’s injury situation, maybe Georgia would be better served playing in the first round. The senior quarterback completed 7 of his 13 passes for 56 yards in the SEC Championship game, but he was knocked out of the game on the final play of the first half with an arm injury. Gunner Stockton replaced Beck in the second half and led Georgia to a 22-19 overtime victory.
Stockton completed 12 of his 16 passes for 71 yards and an interception, while also running 8 times for 8 yards. In the third quarter, when Georgia made its run to get back into the game, the offense averaged 5.5 yards per play (up from 2.6 in the first half) and Stockton completed 4 of his 6 passes. The Bulldogs turned to the ground and used Stockton’s ability as a runner to catch Texas off-guard. When Texas got reoriented for Stockton, the offense started to struggle again and Stockton was caught in a few bad spots.
The official statement from Georgia after the SEC title game was that Beck injured his elbow, was exploring treatment options, and had no timetable for a return. As of publication, the expectation is that Stockton will play in Georgia’s first CFP game. If that is the case, Notre Dame is one of the last defenses I’d want to see him face.
Notre Dame leads the nation in EPA per dropback faced and passing success rate allowed. Nothing comes easy against the secondary, which had to replace star corner Benjamin Morrison on the fly in mid-October and hasn’t really skipped a beat. Notre Dame is also expecting to have interior wrecking ball Howard Cross III back for the Indiana game after an extended absence.
Georgia has been rather pedestrian at stopping the run this year, so I’m expecting Notre Dame to be able to dictate the terms when it has the ball. The Irish will be preparing all the way for Stockton, which is something Texas wasn’t able to do. I expect Notre Dame to get a few splash plays from the defense and create some distance late.
PICK: Notre Dame to win by more than 2.5
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 6 Penn State — Semifinal, Jan. 9 (Orange Bowl)
Projection: Notre Dame -3.5
After upsetting the SEC champs, Notre Dame gets the Big Ten runners-up with a spot in the national championship on the line. James Franklin has done enough to silence his critics for at least the next few years and ensure that this semifinal matchup is just about what happens between the white lines. This is the semifinal matchup I’m hoping for on this side of the bracket purely from an entertainment standpoint. Penn State has the chops to really grind Notre Dame’s offensive gears. The Nittany Lions are sixth nationally in EPA per run faced and are one of the best-equipped teams in the field to put all the pressure on Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard to win it with his arm. Notre Dame is also a bit too gratuitous against the run for my liking, but Army and Southern Cal ran on the Irish without Cross in the middle. Prior to his injury, Northern Illinois and Navy were the only teams all season to be above 4 yards per carry against the Irish. Notre Dame turns Drew Allar over and the Irish skate into the national title game by the skin of their teeth.
PICK: Notre Dame to win by fewer than 3.5
No. 5 Texas vs. No. 1 Oregon — Semifinal, Jan. 10 (Cotton Bowl)
Projection: Oregon -2.5
After slowing down Tennessee, Oregon should feel like it has conquered the biggest threat to it on its own side of the bracket. It won’t feel that way, of course. Coach Dan Lanning will have the Ducks motivated to play as he has done all year. Texas might make Oregon’s offense uncomfortable, but the Ducks’ defense won’t be tested by Texas in the same way it was in the quarters. In the end, this simply comes down to the belief that I know far more about what Oregon is than I do Texas. I still question if the Longhorns are legit. Beating the 2 lowest-ranked teams in the field won’t answer that question for me. And my eyes tell me Oregon is the closest thing to an elite we have this year.
PICK: Oregon to win by more than 2.5
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Oregon — National Championship, Jan. 20
Projection: Oregon -2.5
Both of these teams will look at the defense lined up across from them and they’ll set out to run the football. Oregon should be able to run at Notre Dame. Notre Dame should be able to run at Oregon. The mobility of Riley Leonard will cause the Ducks issues, as Oregon has had trouble with dual-threat quarterbacks all year. Both sides will shorten the game, limit the possessions, and turn this into a thriller in the fourth quarter. You have to trust Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks’ perimeter weapons more than Leonard and Notre Dame in a “game on the line, go win it” kind of situation. Oregon’s secondary is its defensive strength, same as Notre Dame’s. Gabriel, the NCAA record-holder for career starts, is the difference-maker. He missed out on the Heisman, but he’ll lead Oregon to a national championship with a storybook performance in his final collegiate game. Somehow, the grass gets even greener in Eugene.
PICK: Oregon to win by more than 2.5
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
